AVZ Discussion 2022

[JNRB]

*Meanwhile in other News of the Shit Stains / Skidmarks of the Toilet variety, I see where

Zijin adds to lithium push with talks to buy $6 billion miner
China’s Zijin Mining Group Co., already a global force in copper and gold, is stepping up its foray into lithium with the potential purchase of a Chinese producer of the battery material.



The resource giant is in talks to buy shares in Zangge Mining Co. Ltd. that could lead to a takeover, Zijin said in a statement to the Hong Kong Exchange.



Zijin has grown aggressively over the past decade through a string of acquisitions, and is aiming to be a bigger player in the expanding global lithium market.



Zangge, the latest target, is based in China’s minerals-rich western region of Qinghai and has a market value of 46.6 billion yuan ($6.4 billion) on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.



It primarily produces potash — used in fertilizer — but gets about a third of its revenue from lithium extracted from salt lakes in Qinghai.



Lithium’s crash since late-2022 — prices have slumped nearly 90% — has hammered listed producers and fueled a spurt of dealmaking.



Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-biggest mining group, last year agreed to buy Arcadium Lithium Plc for $6.7 billion.



Zangge is a relatively small lithium producer, producing about 9,278 tons of lithium carbonate in the first nine months of 2024.



But it has plans to develop further brine projects in Tibet, where it’s also already a junior partner in Zijin’s Julong copper mine.



Zijin’s chairman Chen Jinghe, a former geologist, has led a rapid expansion that’s carried the firm to the top ranks of global copper miners.



The company began digging gold in the mountains of southeastern China in the 1980s, and it now has a market capitalization of about $57 billion in Hong Kong. The shares rose 3.4% on Friday.



The lithium push has been more recent, driven by the prospect of a decades-long demand boom for the material used in EV batteries.



It’s aiming to produce up to 300,000 tons by 2028, according to a strategy document from last year, although output so far been modest.



Zijin postponed the startup of projects in Argentina and Tibet until 2025 because of weak prices and permitting delays, and it’s aiming to start output in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2026.



It also has a hard-rock mine in China’s Hunan province.



The purchase of shares in Zangge “may result in a change in control” of the target company, Zijin’s statement said.



mining.com





Hmmm !.jpg

@Underwaterdark

If you want an idea of what we might get out of it from a full takeover, better off looking at things like this and other acquisitions.

There's been a few deals going around lately. Yes, sometimes for operating mines rather than mineral rights, but still - $2billion + for a projects that's are minnows next to Manono seems to be happening not infrequently now.



- CATH deal values us ~0.85 billion.
But made during our dark ages, and comes with lots of other sweeteners.


- i forget the details but there was some sort of litigation claim from Kong maybe? Can't remember the details, but for their % chunk of the company and what they claimed they were due in damages IIRC it valued the company at a few billion.

- God its going a long way back now but our ATH was circa 4-5 B? Back when we thought things were going well and the DRC had matured as a country.

- if you value it proportionately to resource size based on recent acquisitions: others have done the math, but it gets pretty juicy.

- if were forced to be 'patient' for long enough for lithium prices to recover it gets even juicier

- if you add on top of that rights to 49% of a hydroxide plant, well it starts looking very tasty indeed.


So those are my metrics for trying to keep some sort of concept of what this thing is worth.
Question is how long.

 

[JNRB]

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

So you think:
- CATH is going to build a mine on HALF the tenement we're entitled to
- So they can let Zijin build a SEPARATE mine right next door
- ...and then buy stuff from Zijin that they could have owned and mined themselves??

Not a chance.
We fought for the north as a tiny Minnow.
CATH will squash Zijin, exert the same CCP pressure that Zijin does and then some, offer hydroxide plant as a sweeteners, and we will develop the whole site.

I really don't understand why people think the involvement of CATH thinks we're suddenly likely to just roll over and give up the north.
WE want it all
CATH wants it all.

Why - the hell - would we cave now.

 

[Rediah]

@Underwaterdark

If you want an idea of what we might get out of it from a full takeover, better off looking at things like this and other acquisitions.

There's been a few deals going around lately. Yes, sometimes for operating mines rather than mineral rights, but still - $2billion + for a projects that's are minnows next to Manono seems to be happening not infrequently now.



- CATH deal values us ~0.85 billion.
But made during our dark ages, and comes with lots of other sweeteners.


- i forget the details but there was some sort of litigation claim from Kong maybe? Can't remember the details, but for their % chunk of the company and what they claimed they were due in damages IIRC it valued the company at a few billion.

- God its going a long way back now but our ATH was circa 4-5 B? Back when we thought things were going well and the DRC had matured as a country.

- if you value it proportionately to resource size based on recent acquisitions: others have done the math, but it gets pretty juicy.

- if were forced to be 'patient' for long enough for lithium prices to recover it gets even juicier

- if you add on top of that rights to 49% of a hydroxide plant, well it starts looking very tasty indeed.


So those are my metrics for trying to keep some sort of concept of what this thing is worth.
Question is how long.

I want it juicier, please sir, thank you.

 

[Hudnut]

I'll be happy once I have details of how we stop the DRC etc from reneging on any deal that might be done.

Mining rights that are granted and removed once, can be granted and removed twice.
Promises to pay can be ignored.

I'm sure international lawyers have ways that can ensure this is locked in prior to stopping ICSID/ICC, but I'd like to know what the mechanism is.

Not keen on going back to square one and starting again.

 

[Azzler]

So you think:
- CATH is going to build a mine on HALF the tenement we're entitled to
- So they can let Zijin build a SEPARATE mine right next door
- ...and then buy stuff from Zijin that they could have owned and mined themselves??

Not a chance.
We fought for the north as a tiny Minnow.
CATH will squash Zijin, exert the same CCP pressure that Zijin does and then some, offer hydroxide plant as a sweeteners, and we will develop the whole site.

I really don't understand why people think the involvement of CATH thinks we're suddenly likely to just roll over and give up the north.
WE want it all
CATH wants it all.

Why - the hell - would we cave now.

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

 

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

 

[JNRB]

- Letting zijin TAKE the north for the sake of convenience and not wanting to hurt peoples feelings = caving.
- Zijin being forced to PAY for the north = vert different outcome.

"You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd"

in what way did I imply that? My assertion is that CATH WANTS it all, as do we, and has the incentive to FIGHT for it, as we have.
Difference being we were fighting with a sharpened spoon against Zijins AK-47. CATH will drive in with a tank.

IF we decide to give up something in negotiations - in the interest of expediting production -, you can rest assured it will be a hell of a lot less now than it would have been a week ago.

The point being our incentive and ability to fight for the North has INCREASED. Not decreased as everyone seems to be implying.
So has our position in any negotiation. But it will still be a FIGHT. Just now it's a very different match up.

And as for the paaaw widdle cowupt DRC officials that might get sued by Zijin....
Fuk em. Not our problem. And also not guaranteed to ever happen. If "legal" action is what concerns them, what do you think is a bigger problem? All of AVZ's current, advanced international arbitration disputes? Or *potential* action from their other corrupt partner for a minor share in a part of a tenement that they priced at an absurdly low value.
- Both zijin and MoM etc are corrupt, and will likely be happy if they can slink away unscathed to try their shenanigans somewhere else.



I'm ok with everyone getting a piece of the pie.
My origional solution was to let Zijin have 'the North'
but just redefine 'the north' to be the size of a postage stamp.
That's their piece.

 

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

 

[SilentOne]

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

 

[tonster66]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

 

[cruiser51]

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

Is that 3 bottles?

 

[cruiser51]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

Is that why Zijin told Bloomberg that they were going to start mining in 12 months time?

It is not the language of a mob which is about to fuck off, is it?

I would say Zijin hasn't started fighting yet, just having a bit of fun and is rolling it sleeves up for a full assault.
They are thinking in their fucked up mind 'enough of being Mr. Nice guy'.

I'm waiting for Tommy the twat to rock up with his banana boatman mate and his lacky shano, the clown, with the 10,000 personalities who talks to himself on the toilet, while having a crap.

 

[JasonM]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Flekman11]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

 

[RHyNO]

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

View attachment 75692

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

Don’t sweat it they will get to it. Strong moves at the appropriate moment. Truth always wins out.

 

[SilentOne]

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Flekman11]

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

Right you are.

Positive leverage is achieved by having something that someone else needs more than you. At that point you hold the cards. I feel Nigel has done exactly that beautifully.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

It was probably a bartering process. Cath probably wanted 40% and AVZ said 25% and back and forth and eventually agreed to 30.5%

 

[cruiser51]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought