AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

Who do you think you are Wino? Rachel Riley?

You didn't answer the question....

 

[Dave Evans]

For Jin Cheng I think it is because the substantive question of whether AVZ's FROR was violated is yet to be determined

The AVZI Successfully Defends Against Jin Cheng ICC Proceedings announcement says:

'On 15 March 2024, the ICC tribunal found in favour of AVZI, ruling that, for the purposes of jurisdiction, the status of a shareholder in Dathcom is determined by its registration in Dathcom’s internal share register and that the ICC tribunal did not have jurisdiction to preside over the proceedings commenced by Jin Cheng.'

This is backed up by the reasoning of the arbiters in last weeks ICC Partial Award Decision

'Moreover, while article 10.1 of Dathcom's Articles of Association 3.1 states that fully paid- up shares are only negotiable after the company has been registered with the RCCM, article 10.2 specifies that "Ownership of shares results from their entry an account in the name of the holder on the registers held for this purpose at the registered office.

Article 10.3 of the Bylaws also states that "The transfer is effected with regard to third parties and the Company, by the registration of the shares concerned in the share account of the acquirer in the registers held for this purpose at the registered office.

Thus, according to these provisions of Dathcom's Articles of Association, registration with the RCCM is not a condition for the validity of the transfer of shares, but it is the registration in the company's share register that is authoritative.'

The question of the FROR violation will be answered in the Cominiere ICC case so Zijin will be using that technicality to proceed with the damages case as ending it now could potentially violate their rights. Dathomir have likely been brought in to the damages case due to the fact that they have their own ongoing arbitration proceeding to determine whether they are still a shareholder of Dathcom. Spoiler alert they're not.

Carlos do you remember @9cardomaha saying something along the lines of the ICSID being able to seize any royalties Zijin would pay to the DRC once they were in production?

 

[robface]

Carlos do you remember @9cardomaha saying something along the lines of the ICSID being able to seize any royalties Zijin would pay to the DRC once they were in production?

Why would they need to wait until Manono lithium to be in production when Zijin has established mines in the DRC already?

And ICC fines for Zijin as ICSID respondents are DRC?

Apologies if I've got my cases mixed up.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Carlos do you remember @9cardomaha saying something along the lines of the ICSID being able to seize any royalties Zijin would pay to the DRC once they were in production?

If you have assets and no dry powder, what do banks do to lend you money?

If Cominiere don't pay securitization, the entire case goes in favour of AVZ?

On top of this, lithium produced could be legally ambiguous and many international companies may not consider dealing with them - not 100% conflict minerals of course, but along those lines, it makes their production and distribution very narrow.

I'm sure 20m securitization would be paid for by Zijin in anycase. then try and delay the verdicts.... This saves face, makes the timeline longer etc etc.

15775 has dividend payment to Cominiere in the JV, advance funds etc. If Z doesn;t pay them, could also turn them back to us.

I'd suggest doing your own research and coming to some conclusions. But funding and obtaining damages is pretty standard - also getting the new partners to foot the bill is super common for those snack munchers.

Taking a step back, we have ongoing cases against them so non-payment on emergency rulings will look poorly on them - so logically they can't just do a runner.

If they do a runner*, because lets face it they probably don't care about ICC cases and its just to drain our funds - I've mentioned before that ICC and ICSID have the power to intercept payments from most international banks and institutions. DLA just need to raise this point to the courts - and wouldn't you know it, if you don't pay according to ICC and ICSID, they don't really favour you going forward.

*This is a possibility for sure.... Refusing to pay is classic DRC, playing the victim, crying poor etc. but there is precedence for intercepting payments which is easy to argue.

For the way payments work, if the damages amount is high, they will draft the payment scheme. If its payment to the Arbitrator and legal teams, its a lump sum immediately, but won't go through AVZ, payable directly to DLA and ICC/ICSID.

We can even ask the courts to force securitization at the next hearings which puts a portion of the payable amount into escrow and will be paid upon a verdict. I'd say with the penalty ticking up to 100mil, we could ask for 20mil as security without much issue - then just work on the verdict and 20mil instant in the bank with the following 80mil that we have to chase up.

Obviously leaving it to DLA and BOD to decide, but that's my takeaway, and why i'm cool as a cucumber.

DYOR.

First domino to fall is now looking like the increased emergency injunction, which conveninently is 24th Nov. Cominiere managed to delay submissions to 9th of November... + 15 days, whoops missed the AGM.

They didn't even do anything particularly clever, just copped the late submission fine of a few thousand euros - paid for by Z. But at least it gives a bad impression for the arbitrator who was already favouring AVZ.

DLA Piper earning their keep, and doubling down on the favourable ruling for 50k penalty - in the modified injunction are things like rolling back 15775, verdict on hydro and increasing penalty to 150k as i've mentioned. Everyone worried about enforcement needs to understand how injunctions with penalties work.....

The injunction is provisional and will continue to count upward until AVZ decides to go before a tribunal to enforce. Once it is enforced, the counter stops and we are paid whatever sum we are owed, along with any verdicts which are stipulated in the injunction. ICC has a very high enforcement rate for injunctions and only under extreme circumstances does an injunction not get enforced when it goes to tribunal.

As for monetary fines, these are placed on Cominiere but ICC's jurisdiction gives it power over all major international financial institutions. So Z wants to pay money to C.... it'll get flagged and paid to AVZ until the fines are all paid off. So the money is going to come our way regardless... not optimal but could be fucking worse.

On ownership rights, ICC are a little weaker, the judgements need to be taken back to local DRC courts for enforcement.... this is a pretty big issue because i don't think anyone here trusts the DRC judicial system. But silver lining is, if DRC local courts refuse to enforce, we have grounds to recalculate to monetary damages, and the ICC can just continue adding to the monetary penalty. Again, not optimal but better than nothing.

My assumption is that if we can get the monetary penalty high enough upon enforcement, then Cominiere can't pay and Z doesn't want to foot the bill, then we can negotiate something.

On another note, we submitted an emergency request to have the 15% ICC case withdrawn. Z has managed to delay that to early decemember

So this is where it gets a little tricky - ICC's power over DRC land transfer and ownership rights is 50/50 from what i can tell. But that is up to the arbitrator, if they do not believe the DRC will follow through, then they pretty weak from what i can tell, but ICC and ICSID for that matter will generally rule for monetary damages as remedy.


this relates to my enforcement showerthought. They aren;t losses unless you sell type of deal, until we request to enforce the emergency injunction.

And for monetary penalties, ICC has jurisdiction over 90% of banking institutions, and can block or hold transactions from ZJ to Cominiere, or any other organiztion to Cominiere to recoup damages.

These are the main posts when 9card explained the ICC enforcement process

Basically ICC has power to seize any payments through banking institutions made to Cominiere including within Manono Lithium from Zijin

Either that or Zijin will just pay up on Cominiere's behalf to avoid sanctions against their product in western markets

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/anonymous_seeu/status/1903607502216077409

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/brendo726/status/1903524950448963963

 

[ptlas]

Go on....

$4.57 AUD x 4.2352 (verified and confirmed shit fucker premium) x 0.62 (convert back to USD) = USD $12...$12....$12!!!

Who whipped out their calculator and checked it????

Be honest....

I think that you're going to need to factor in the ( probably ) rising lithium price over the next months. Hopefully, not years.

As a few have said, and I've banged on about, probably incessantly, do not talk the price down and do not let it be dictated by outside parties.
It is a sign of weakness, and this is now as much about psychology as anything else.

@wombat74
I would differentiate between FT / DRC elites' interests and those of the DRC.
He / they have proven over many years that they don't GAF.
Rebels in the East or any other issues are secondary to them staying out of gaol ( almost a given ), stayng in power and continuing to collect those parcels that one pays 25c for in Woolies.

The Chinese will also be up to their old tricks.
When one considers how few of their shitty actions over the last few years were predicted, it inevitably means that there are more twists and turns coming.

Consequently, FT's actions are totally unpredictable.
He will act out of self-interest. Whatever that is.

 

[Mute22]

Thanks Carlos, I’ve actually got some information I wasn’t going to share with anyone but I owe you a token of gratitude so here’s what I found out

Celestin Kibeya was seen phoning the Ministry of Mines shortly after taking Zijin’s bribe and walking out of Zijin’s office with the $2 million

Until now the photographer kept the photo confidential but finally decided to release it this morning


View attachment 80007

This may be construed the wrong way...

 

[Carlos Danger]

Why would they need to wait until Manono lithium to be in production when Zijin has established mines in the DRC already?

And ICC fines for Zijin as ICSID respondents are DRC?

Apologies if I've got my cases mixed up.

These are the main posts when 9card explained the ICC enforcement process

Basically ICC has power to seize any payments through banking institutions made to Cominiere including within Manono Lithium from Zijin

Either that or Zijin will just pay up on Cominiere's behalf to avoid sanctions against their product in western markets

View attachment 79996
View attachment 79999
View attachment 79998
View attachment 79997

The partial award at the ICC was against Cominiere. The award is due to the ICC initially not us.

Therefore for this particular award the ICC can only recoup from Cominiere before paying to AVZ through the lawyers

It doesn't have to be money paid from profits in production with Zijin it can be any money paid to Cominiere by anyone that the ICC will be able to intercept

 

[PhatCatz]

From the Equities Club this morning

AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move​

Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.

The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, bidding for a majority stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company wants to buy in through Cominiere, the state-owned company with 30% of the asset.

​

The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg

Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.

Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.

With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O, Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.

“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold unlocking this asset with the technical and financial support of Silicon Valley's cleantech elite may accelerate development and revive stalled infrastructure planning.

The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.

It's unlikely KoBold would buy out AVZ directly, as AVZ's equity interest in Manono has been under dispute since 2022. Instead, KoBold's deal appears aimed at acquiring control through Cominiere, effectively bypassing AVZ altogether.

Unfrotunately this raises the possibility that AVZ shareholders could be sidelined entirely,unless the company succeeds in international arbitration or reaches a negotiated settlement. Both of which are very possible outcomes.

If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.

However, if KoBold moves forward and AVZ is unable to reassert its ownership stake, shareholders could be left holding equity in a company with no asset. The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.

The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and 21,000 stranded shareholders. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.

​

The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com

Yeah nah.

 

[Dave Evans]

This may be construed the wrong way...

I don’t think anything makes any difference Mute. The corrupt arseholes over there are running the show and playing nice with them never made any difference, still point taken and post deleted

 

[Mute22]

I don’t think anything makes any difference Mute. The corrupt arseholes over there are running the show and playing nice with them never made any difference, still point taken and deleted

I get it.

We've taken the high road this far, let's see it through.

Trust me, I'll share my real thoughts on the larger picture when this is all done.

 

[Spikerama]

Alright folks head over to the assets folder. On the end of page 3, I have put the ICSID Final Countdown Counter.

I'm done with it for now. Works pretty well. It will look pretty ominous once it gets down to a few days. Hopefully we won't need it by then but I'm not holding breath that's for sure.

AVZ Assets for Social Media Campaign

Here's another one for the set.

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[cruiser51]

---

AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move
​

Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.

The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, seeking a stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company has proposed a deal that excludes Cominiere, instead requesting the Congolese government take a minority shareholding in the project. 1



The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg
Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.

Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.

AVZ Minerals: From $6 million to a $4.5 billion delisting. Inside the Congo lithium saga​

Equities Club
·
7 May 2024
Read full story
With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O,2 Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.

“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold potentially unlocking this asset comes amid a complex legal backdrop. Recently, AVZ secured a partial arbitration victory, winning €39.1m in penalties against Cominiere,3 which adds another layer to the ongoing negotiations.

The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.

Current developments indicate ongoing negotiations, with AVZ currently engaged in arbitration proceedings and preliminary discussions with potential US-based funding partners. The company's CEO, Nigel Ferguson, was notably copied on KoBold's official communication.

If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.

While the legal proceedings continue, AVZ remains actively engaged in multiple arbitration processes to protect its interests in the Manono project.

The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.

The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and more than 21,000 shareholders hanging on every development. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.



The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com

 

[LEFOOL]

Why sell? why not prefer royalties from whichever mofo develops this mamoth resource for the length of the mine, the way lithium is going S/H would be recieving a divy of 2 dollars per share every year. why sell the cow when u can have the milk

Why Sell ?
Because DRC. Lets get the fuck out of there and forgot about this shit show. The days of 'getting divvies' are so dead mate let's be realistic =)

 

[Mute22]

Just came across this article from 2023, had Kobold Minerals already made an offer all the way back then?

November 6, 2023 at 6:46 PM UTC

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/gates-backed-mining-start-up-wants-to-expand-into-congo?embedded-checkout=true

Bill Gates-Backed Mining Startup Wants to Expand Into Congo​

KoBold Metals, a mining start-up backed by Bill Gates that’s developing a copper project in Zambia, is getting closer to investing in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.

That’s according to chief executive officer Kurt House, who said that the company has already bid for one asset, which didn’t result in a transaction. He declined to identify the asset.

“We think it is probably the best place in the world for the types of materials we’re looking for,” House said in an interview.
KoBold is exploring around the world for new deposits of metals that are key to the global green-energy transition. Congo is the world’s largest cobalt producer and one of the biggest sources of copper. Both materials are expected to see demand swell in the coming decade as they’re needed for clean-energy infrastructure and rechargeable batteries.

Read More: Why the Fight for ‘Critical Minerals’ Is Heating Up: QuickTake

San Francisco Bay Area-based KoBold’s entry into Congo would align with the priorities of US President Joe Biden’s administration, which is keen to grow American investments throughout the electric-vehicle supply chain, according to House.

The closely held company’s backers include Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and it also counts BHP Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company by market value, among its shareholders. Michael Bloomberg, majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, is an investor in Breakthrough, according to the company’s website.



Reading between the lines, maybe they were hoping to pick us up for scraps, thinking our position was weak. Now that they see we’re on the front foot at ICSID and won’t entertain their low-ball offers, they’re starting to come closer to fair value

 

[robface]

AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty

The partial award at the ICC was against Cominiere. The award is due to the ICC initially not us.

Therefore for this particular award the ICC can only recoup from Cominiere before paying to AVZ through the lawyers

It doesn't have to be money paid from profits in production with Zijin it can be any money paid to Cominiere by anyone that the ICC will be able to intercept

"AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty"

Announcement suggests the responsibility falls on AvZ for recovery?, unless they've said they will bundle it in with negotiations.

 

[Spikerama]

While I'm on it, it might be a good for people to go back through that whole Assets Thread and re-air some of that dirty laundry now that we have more media attention. Having just gone back through it, there's quite a few showstoppers in there that highlight the key bad actors in engaging ways.

I will reupload a clean film of the Celestin Bribe video I did too and pop it at the end if anyone want's to download. It will be on WeTransfer which doesn't last very long these days so be quick if you want it.

AVZ Assets for Social Media Campaign

Hi everyone. As requested here is a thread that will contain all the links to the assets I have been creating. Feel free to use them throughout social media whenever and whereever you see an opportunity. If I can make one suggestion it is if you are going to screen shot them and post the image...

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[Carlos Danger]

AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty

"AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty"

Announcement suggests the responsibility falls on AvZ for recovery?, unless they've said they will bundle it in with negotiations.

Recovery through the ICC relies on Cominiere receiving payments to their accounts which can be avoided at least for a while

So rather than responsibility for recovery falling on AVZ management are saying they will consider using alternative recovery methods if needed

So in order of preference it is Cominiere (Or Zijin) pay the fine, the ICC uses enforcement if payments are available to be intercepted or we pursue recovery of the award through other avenues

 

[BEISHA]

Here are my thoughts on the takeover offer by Kobold. As a long-term shareholder since December 2016, I've experienced the ups and downs alongside the company—riding the high to 36c, watching it drop to 4c, and then seeing it rise again to 1.36c. Throughout all these fluctuations, we’ve remained steadfast in our belief in the potential of renewable energy and its ability to help shape a better future for the world.

That said, I cannot accept anything less than $3.50 per share in this deal. I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north. To my understanding, the situation is still pending with both ICC and ICDIS. As far as I’m concerned, the north is not theirs to offer, as it hasn’t been fully settled yet. If Zijin intends to retain control over the north, they must pay a fair and equitable price for it—nothing less. The value of these assets should be fully recognised, and we, as shareholders, deserve fair compensation in exchange for giving up our stake.

We find ourselves in an incredibly strong position, with only 70 days remaining until the ICDIS. This is a critical point in time, especially given the strategic nature of the mineral resources we control. Given the high demand for such minerals, and the central role they will play in the future of renewable energy, it’s perplexing and concerning to see any move toward undervaluing these assets.

With the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) positioning itself to attract more Western investment, it seems counterproductive—if not outright misguided—that we would be considering selling ourselves cheaply. The global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, and the minerals we possess are crucial to this transformation. Why, then, would we let such a valuable resource sit idle or be handed away at a bargain price?

Nigel, as the decision-maker, is sitting with a winning hand of cards. Our position is strong, and our resource is of the highest quality. The strategic importance of this mineral to the future of renewable energy cannot be overstated. The world’s increasing demand for these minerals, combined with the DRC’s focus on attracting Western investors, puts us in a position of power. We have the leverage to negotiate a deal that reflects the true value of these assets.

If anything, we are where we are today precisely because of the exceptional quality of our resource, and it’s this value that should guide any discussions about its future. Selling ourselves short now would be a missed opportunity, one that could have far-reaching consequences for shareholders, for the company, and for the role we can play in driving the renewable energy revolution. We must stand firm and demand a fair price that reflects both the strategic importance of what we hold and the substantial value that is yet to be realised.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

As I’ve said before, we shouldn’t accept anything less than $3.50 per share. This is not a time to settle for less, especially when our resource is so critical to the future of renewable energy. We are in a prime position, with major players like Kobold showing interest, and we must ensure that the price we accept reflects the true worth of our company and its assets. We’ve endured the highs and lows of the market, and now is the time for us to capitalise on the long-term potential of our investment. Anything less than $3.50 per share would be an undervaluation of what we have built and the opportunities that lie ahead.

It’s also important to recognise the emotional toll this journey has taken on many shareholders. Many of us have suffered significant mental and emotional strain, and even relationship challenges, due to the uncertainty and volatility of our investments. However, we have carried on because we truly believed that, in the end, there would be justice—that our patience and dedication would be rewarded.

If Zijin manages to acquire the north without paying a fair price for it, then it would be a clear violation of that sense of justice. It would send a message that shareholders, who have endured so much over the years, are not valued or respected. For those of us who have stuck with this company through thick and thin, this is not just about financial compensation—it’s about fairness. If we allow Zijin to take control of such a valuable asset without proper payment, it undermines the very principles of equity and fairness that we believed would guide this process. $3.5 and nothing less!

Anyone who believes we should accept the current offer or risk walking away with $0 is kidding themselves. The situation is far more complex, and there’s too much at stake. The DRC cannot afford to let this resource sit idle—it’s far too valuable. No reputable company would consider investing in this resource without the proper fines being paid and the outstanding issues with ICC and ICDIS being resolved first.

The DRC’s ability to attract Western investment hinges on addressing these concerns, and no serious player would move forward without that clarity and resolution. We are in a strong position, and it's crucial that we demand a fair price. The risks of accepting a lowball offer far outweigh any potential short-term gain, and we cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away for anything less than its true worth. This is the moment for us to secure a fair deal that reflects the strategic value of our holdings and the long-term potential they offer.

Good to see you again Charbella and couldnt agree more with your post.