AVZ Discussion 2022

[hedrox]

And let's not forget...even in a delisted company, the company needs approval of the majority of shareholders to pursue with a buyout price. Specially the Chinese shareholders want top $$$ ....and there are plenty of them I can spot on the last Top 20 shareholder statement from 2024

Kobold have to come up with a decent offer asap, what Nigel and the most shareholders can't reject... otherwise, we know what dirty games the Chinese can play...dangle a few carrots and through in a few brown paper bags.... Its unusual quiet in the Chinese whispers game imo...
I don't think CATH are out of the game....specially financing AVZ's court cases. There must be more to the game...
Are we getting a Bidding war?...Let's see how it all pans out....minimum all times high share price that nobody looses out ...IMO

At least this would be a great starting point....are you reading this Kobold Metals?
Plus Compo from ZIJIN could may be reached in further court cases after the buy out...as a slight possibility...

 

[KentCStrait]

And let's not forget...even in a delisted company, the company needs approval of the majority of shareholders to pursue with a buyout price.

No, no, no. This is not a buyout of the company we hold shares in. An asset the company we hold is being sold. What's then done with the proceeds of that sale will likely require a special general meeting and a vote by shareholders but your claim is wrong.

 

[OmarsCominYo]

This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate as it would be a pitiful compensation for the health and financial stress of being put through years of this debacle. ICfuckingSID all the way if this is an accurate figure imv..

 

[hedrox]

No, no, no. This is not a buyout of the company we hold shares in. An asset the company we hold is being sold. What's then done with the proceeds of that sale will likely require a special general meeting and a vote by shareholders but your claim is wrong.

Kent....thank u for clearing that up. you are right..it is an asset sale...not a share buy out. I must be to excited about today's progress I guess. I deleted my post.

 

[UtterMoron]

Thank fucking christ, i might be able to pay off my mortgage next christmas.

I'm hedging my bets we cede the north under condition we get a cut of the profit and shared use of the hydro electric dam to get over this hump, hand that agreement off to kobolds and take the gtfo discounted offer. If it lands near the $3-4 mark I'll be happy as larry. If it's substantially more praise the lord I'll tattoo Fergies face on my left buttcheek

 

[Carlos Danger]

This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate as it would be a pitiful compensation for the health and financial stress of being put through years of this debacle. ICfuckingSID all the way if this is an accurate figure imv..

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

 

[Samus]

This posted on the crapper, by someone saying there's a lot of fake stories around....so I bloody well hope this isn't accurate as it would be a pitiful compensation for the health and financial stress of being put through years of this debacle. ICfuckingSID all the way if this is an accurate figure imv..

 

[Flekman11]

Important to remember KoBold are all in on exploration, and their business model is all about capitalising off the back of exploration success. They don’t want to develop anything and simply want partners or sales to deal with that.

They see more at this deposit is my view.

RIO.

 

[Hudnut]

I agree with your sentiment. I would hope that AVZ paying it out to shareholders as a special dividend. Resume trading and we can get out of it.

Fuck that. At top marginal tax rate, I'd have to make a 100% return on my average price to not actually lose money.
And I've got other capital losses I can write off against this.
A dividend is the worst outcome for me. Capital gain please.

 

[lellep]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

 

[lellep]

@Dave Evans

Mate, I’m battling a bad dose of Covid, which I have duly handed over to my wife despite precautions. Been 10 days now and still reeling from it. Bastard. Got it 2 days after getting back from Dubai, so possibly a strain not covered by recent vax.

Rest assured I’ll be back on the Margherita bandwagon soon enough.

I can see the situation is going to be analysed to death for the next couple of months, so I might stay in bed for the duration

In Nige we trust

I see Shane is having psychotic episodes on X - needs some Li

Hope you get well soon! In the meantime enjoy reading Toilets desperation on the crapper and all the interesting news surrounding AVZ!

 

[Flekman11]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

KoBolds own statement says that they are ready to deploy more than $1B to bring Manono lithium to western markets. No offence but maybe read the statement. Thats clearly development expenditure. Nothing to do with any sort of TO offers.

Feed AI dumb shit and you may get dumb shit back.

 

[Spikerama]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

I think a clear distinction needs to be made about what this 1 billion, Kobold has to invest relates to.

I understood it to be they would invest 1 billion to develop the mine project, (ie; Manono) after AVZ has been compensated. Not in to AVZ or Dathcom. So you cant divide the SOI into 1 billion and get a pps. That's just bonkers.

 

[Hudnut]

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

Kobold's release: ".. will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $1B to bring the Manono Lithium to Western markets"

The Australian: "The sale price remains unclear, but the deal is set to trigger an initial investment of more than $US1bn ($1.55bn) in Manono from KoBold"

From the other article:
"The Framework Agreement Structure
KoBold's entry represents a potential breakthrough in this protracted dispute. The company has proposed a framework agreement that would:

1. Compensate AVZ Minerals for its initial exploration work and partial claim settlement
2. Divide the massive deposit geographically – with KoBold developing the southern portion while Zijin retains rights to the northern section
3. Commit $1 billion for project development over a 5-year timeframe
4. Establish clear boundaries and operational independence between the two zones"

It looks to me like $1B is the investment as per Spike's post, not the sale/compensation price.
I look forward to hearing what those are.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I think a clear distinction needs to be made about what this 1 billion, Kobold has to invest relates to.

I understood it to be they would invest 1 billion to develop the mine project, (ie; Manono) after AVZ has been compensated. Not in to AVZ or Dathcom. So you cant divide the SOI into 1 billion and get a pps. That's just bonkers.

Kobold's release: ".. will enable KoBold to rapidly deploy more than $1B to bring the Manono Lithium to Western markets"

The Australian: "The sale price remains unclear, but the deal is set to trigger an initial investment of more than $US1bn ($1.55bn) in Manono from KoBold"

From the other article:
"The Framework Agreement Structure
KoBold's entry represents a potential breakthrough in this protracted dispute. The company has proposed a framework agreement that would:

1. Compensate AVZ Minerals for its initial exploration work and partial claim settlement
2. Divide the massive deposit geographically – with KoBold developing the southern portion while Zijin retains rights to the northern section
3. Commit $1 billion for project development over a 5-year timeframe
4. Establish clear boundaries and operational independence between the two zones"

It looks to me like $1B is the investment as per Spike's post, not the sale/compensation price.
I look forward to hearing what those are.

$1.5b USD / 3.5b shares = $0.42 USD

Looks like The Australian was right. It better have royalties. Nigel securing himself a job too won’t go down well if there isn't residual benefits for shareholders at that valuation.

I was referring to the valuation reported by The Australian in March which is $1.5b USD plus a royalty not the $1b USD in KoBold's announcement

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/perthbased-avz-minerals-congo-lithium-hopes-hinge-on-us-envoys-talks/news-story/8ef1498e0d201415a5c0286718bac360?amp

Perth-based AVZ Minerals’ Congo lithium hopes hinge on US envoy’s talks​

Brad Thompson

AVZ and KoBold representatives want to nail down a deal on the future of the southern portion of the Manono deposit from the talks starting on Tuesday. If all goes well, AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty. But there is no assurance of any outcome, favourable or otherwise.

 

[Penskefile]

So AVZ was/is prepared to go the distance with Cath's backing to get a mine (and have the plan). Its Kobold / US / DRC that are advocating for a quick/quiet exit. AVZ are willing to do whats right and legally defend our rights (and we raised the funds to do it), not whats quick BUT AVZ are willing to do whats quick if its in the interest of shareholders. They know what we have, they are the guys that measured it, that built it, that did all the work and then got sidelined by "circumstances".

Basically what is playing out now is what SHOULD have played out 4 years ago when China was the only game in town and the US was asleep at the wheel on critical mineral supply, US have FINALLY woken up and I think we are about to see just what US overkill is. Remember there is hundreds of billions of dollars in Manono and many TRILLIONS at stake in Africa, we are the ones being woo'd away from Cath/CATL and over to the US.

You’re completely wrong about US being “asleep at the wheel” and have “finally woken up”.

Like Albozo, Biden was a bought and paid for Chinese asset who was told to turn a blind eye to Chinese hegemony and just stick to his choc top ice creams, sniffing girls’ hair and visits to the beach.

Now that Trump is in town, he’s holding the Chinese‘s feet to the fire and is the only reason why we are back in the game.

All you Trump-hating, AVZ shareholders (you know who you are) should do the following:

- worship the ground Trump walks on; and
- eat a giant bag of dicks

Trump 2028

 

[Spikerama]

I was referring to the valuation reported by The Australian in March which is $1.5b USD plus a royalty not the $1b USD in KoBold's announcement

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/perthbased-avz-minerals-congo-lithium-hopes-hinge-on-us-envoys-talks/news-story/8ef1498e0d201415a5c0286718bac360?amp

I wasn't responding to you Carlos.

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1920388855473008885

https://x.com/KevinLBO/status/1920409747909411187

 

[Nellie17]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

G'day Lollipop,

I'm pretty sure the $1billion is to invest in building the mine, not to buy us out. Please check.

Cheers,
Nells xx

 

[Frank]

Lithium of Manono: pressure from the American KoBold on Kinshasa ​

The US KoBold Metals, supported by investors such as Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is on the offensive to accept the offer it submitted on 21 January 2025 to the authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on the Manono lithium deposit, considered to have “the potential to become a large-scale, long-lasting lithium mine.” ​

According to an estimate published in January 2024, the deposit could house 669 million tonnes of mineral resources containing 1.61 per cent lithium.

KoBold issued a joint statement with Australia's AVZ Minerals entitled Developing Manono for Peace and Prosperity.

In this document, signed on 6 May 2025, by their respective Directors-General, Kurt House (photo) and Nigel Ferguson, the two companies state that they have “successful consensus on a business framework for the rapid development of the Manono deposit”.

“This framework provides for AVZ to hand over its commercial interests in the lithium deposit from Manono to KoBold, to fair value,” says the statement.

According to the same document, the agreement would allow KoBold to mobilize rapidement “rapidly” more than a billion dollars “to transport Manono’s lithium to Western markets.”

Except that, for the Congolese government, the Australian mining company no longer has rights to the deposit.

For Kinshasa, these rights were lost after the Congolese public company Cominière ended its partnership with AVz in 2022.

A decision which is contested by the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce, in which it has already obtained the conviction of Cominière to pay EUR 39.1 million in penalties for non-compliance with injunctions.

However, the arbitral tribunal has not yet ruled on the merits of the case file.

In his offer made in January, KoBold proposes to end the litigation by granting “appropriate compensation” to AVZ, in exchange for abandoning his claims to Manono for his benefit.

The American company said it was ready to develop the southern part of the deposit, while the northern section would remain under the control of the Chinese group zijin Mining.

It should be recalled that Manono Lithium SAS, a 61% joint venture owned by the company (via its subsidiary Jinxiang Lithium) and 39% by Cominière, obtained an operating permit in September 2024 on part of the deposit.

An offer for “peace and prosperity”

So far, the Congolese authorities have not publicly expressed themselves on KoBold’s offer. But the joint statement of 6 May suggests that they have not yet given a favourable follow-up.

“After has undertaken to propose to the Congolese government a temporary suspension of the arbitration proceedings before the ICSID in order to facilitate the discussions,” says the document.

This statement sounds like a hit on Kinshasa.

KoBold and AV seem to be interested in taking advantage of the current rapprochement between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The document also mentions the US government as a stakeholder: “Avid and KoBold cooperate with all stakeholders, including the US government, the DRC government, and the current development partner of VA.”

The two companies also position their proposal as a contribution to “peace and prosperity,” promising “thousands of well-paid jobs for Congolese over decades.”

With the deteriorating security situation in the eastern DRC, Kinshasa offered the Trump administration a mining agreement in exchange for its support.

Since then, this issue has been the subject of bilateral discussions and Washington has been actively involved in the resolution of the conflict.

“A lasting peace in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo will open the door to larger US and Western citizen investments that will create an ecosystem that supports responsible and reliable supply chains for things like critical minerals,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on April 25, 2025 in Washington, D.C., when the “Declaration of Principles” for a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, support for the rebellion.

Lithium de Manono : coup de pression de l’Américain KoBold sur Kinshasa

L’entreprise américaine KoBold Metals, soutenue par des investisseurs comme Bill Gates et Jeff Bezos, passe à l’offensive pour faire accepter l’offre qu’elle a soumise, le 21 janvier 2025, aux autorités de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) sur le gisement de lithium de Manono, considéré...

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