Hi all,
I am testing this for
@Mozzarc, it should be the same as the above screenshots.
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here are many companies out there that only want a quick outcome. They may be trading at say $1.00 today...if they get taken over at around 80% increase in the short term, wham bam...thanks for the glam. (Yeah I modified it, the original saying isn't all that pleasant)... We could call these companies as 'self groomers'...they groom themselves to look so pretty on the outside, inside is a slightly different story.
WE ARE NOT THAT COMPANY
We are here for the long term. Yes maybe we are a little new, we are a touch rough on the outside...but mate...inside? I don't think you can actually compare...the thinking ...the plan....the goals...rock solid. Sure you might think I'm a bit biased but lets take a closer look at why I say we are a little on the unique side.
No, LONG term, doesn't mean a year or two.....the long term in this space is
multiple years.....yes, you read that right....The average duration for 100 baggers is something like
20 years.
WHAT?
26 years to be precise1...is the average for your typical 100 bagger, yes there are some companies that have done it sooner...11 years, but a real lot have taken around 20 or more to really come into play. Don't cry that our share price lags, all is lost, I am down on my investment. This is not that sorta investment, this is not that sort of company.
I have been a holder since IPO...I'm not the oldest holder, I talk to guys on the blower that were Mez level....I so wish I was one of them, I am not, I was late for the bulk of my holdings.....but no matter...that was back in 2015.....this still ISN'T and HASN'T been a long term for me....I'm no longer the spring chicken I used to be...but no matter, luckily I still got a few years left.... to ride this train.
.
Our journey has well and truly started, our opening of the IND was a major hurdle crossed...enjoy the journey, we gotta lot of miles to cover yeah?
SO what is 'long term' then? Well as I have said, that varies a bit from person to person, shareholder to shareholder. FOR me ...it is 15 to 20 years...
WHAT?
MOZZ - you can't expect
me to hold this thing for 20 years?
NOT at all...incorrect...false...What I mean is that if I have 100% shares now...my plan is to SLOWLY crystallise
some over the medium term at certain milestones....not a lot....but my core, lets call it about a 25% - 40% of todays stake I will actually NEVER SELL....unless of course there is something looming we haven't seen or some fundamental major change to the negative, to the detriment...
Like Scotty and Paul laughed about at the end of their great 1.5 hrs chat...I want my dividends....(Note: see this post on another way to think about dividends and why maybe they aren't always as good as we think!!! Single left click the hyper link below).
DIVIDENDS - ARE THEY ALWAYS TOP DOG?
MORE PROOF THAT WE ARE NOT THAT COMPANY
Guys and Gals, a true long termed super visionary company DOES NOT undertake 26 blooming sub studies to ensure they are future proof. They don't take on multiple studies when the FDA at the time have only asked for x amount of data...these PAR guys are NOT only giving MORE...they are thinking about the future...
They ask questions like...WHAT DO WE NEED FOR THE FUTURE?
You want more granular detailed proof from ol' Mozz don't you?
1) They think about what they need before and AFTER registration.
Who will they be dealing with, the insurers and payers, what will they talk about...what will they want us to do next...what adds value from their perspective? What do the Doctors want, how do we make it easy for THEM to decide to prescribe iPPS? How do we make it easier for the end patients?
2) They think about the most important designation, the label...Despite the fact that it adds:
TIME

MONEY

EFFORT
Despite the above bullet points, PAR added those extension studies...added those EXTRA studies, 006, 007, 009, 010....added those studies despite it being painful to us at the moment...added them NOW, catered for it NOW...so we are done with them when we are at Registration - we are then REALLY ready to go at that point!
009 for example, retreatment study, PAR know that the FDA at registration will ask them...."Hey PAR...good results mate...but what do you think about the retreatment regime....will retreatment cause any problems....is retreatment actually safe? What do you think?"
PAR have thought about this NOW. This is the company thinking I want despite the share price being currently crushed. I care
not about the share price NOW...I care about it in 5 years....in 10 years...and best, in 15 years when we are so gunning it that we cant comprehend how we didn't anticipate this so many years back.
3) They don't think narrowly about A market, ANY old market...they are thinking about hitting
globally...yes I mean USA AND Europe, at the same time.
4) 008, this was an epiphany...DMOAD preliminary study...and you know what, they were adaptive about it....expanding it to more than one site mid stream....incorporating duration aspect, as they knew these are the next questions that would get asked....they could've just gone with the basic study...and then be asked:
A) Err... PAR, well done...but what about a second site to confirm what's happening?
B) Err... PAR, well done...but does these data observations last anywhere longer than just a few months, what happens after a year then? Wouldn't it be good if you could've studied this over a year to see how the biomarkers react over this time??
5) Other indications BUT not spreading us too thin, CHIKV, Long Covid, RRV, Heart, ARDS
6) PI's. IF they were a short term minded company wanting to merely appease some disgruntled holders, WHY wouldn't you just grab ANY Principal Investigators.....NO, they wanted ones with huge experience, well renowned, experts in their field, whose word makes a difference. This applies to all aspects...another granular example...WHY get Dr Giugliano for MPS, with his immense experience, just get
any MPS treating doc and be done with it...why struggle...why do the hard yakka?
7) Speed up multi sites..they are genuinely trying to do some work in mitigating our delays. What you forget is if our data is truly magnificent, there are other possible pathways that may eventually present themselves. Breakthrough designation at some point?
8) Peer review - a short term minded co, wouldn't bother to do this...why add extra work load and headache...why delay OB Phase 2 B peer review.....Why not just get something published quickly with a lower tiered peer reviewer and be done with it...they want the best...they want attention to detail, they are using a longer term scope. They want to publish NEW...NOVEL...data with the better Peer Reviewers to make a splash. 008 data, could be most amazing. (My personal thoughts).
9) They are cognisant. Oooooooh are they aware of what is required, YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT.
In the bowels of the FDA there are statements like PGIC...and an example is Orphan diseases. PAR have spent much time catering to this and the go to example is the poster...no no no no not the latest poster...I'm talking the poster back in Orlando early 2020....the care and the material views of the parents, the guardians and the family of MPS patients.
Reminder?
LINK TO MPS POSTER in early 2020:
10) Just get the best.
Who do you want to help on a project...someone that knows something about OA....or someone that is a world leader and is world recognised? Dr David Felson...but you know what...Dr Donna Skerrett and Dr Peter Ghosh...Dr Ravi Krishnan, Even Dr Stapleton, absolute leaders in their field. Get experienced people...it costs more I understand...but this adds value. Get staff members that have had the experience themselves and have personally been involved with large institutions...have dealt with them. Crush it with experience.
11) Go over and beyond...fortify the relationship with our partners....Bene....again, why would a overnight company care to foster such a relationship well into the future. (25 years....is it a coincidence that it is 25 years, remember the average 100 bagger time for stardom). We as shareholders should be aware and align ourselves too. Its not for everyone, I never said this was for everyone. I also have never said hold
everything blindly till kingdom come....but I am forecasting a somewhat higher chance of a brighter future...the force is strong with this one.
It reminds me of Disney's acquisition of Star Wars and of Marvel...didn't they simply pay too much at the time, some $4 Billion for Star Wars..and $4 Billion for Marvel....at the time this was an incredible crazy/silly amount of money for possibly a not great acquisition. Look now....they are both franchises that just keep giving..with oh so much more to come. These franchises took time to build...took time to recruit and develop...Remember that crazy $4 Billion they paid for Marvel, now the MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe) alone is worth an estimated $25 Billion....and is the biggest movie franchise ever. Star Wars in 2020 was estimated to be worth some $70 Billion.
Back then it seemed a lot, now - bargain! Wont we too in the future say the same thing, $1.45 per share, what, really?
12) They are working hard....YOU may not see this hard work....YOU may go for weeks without an announcement...BUT let me tell you, they are doing lots....there is much we are not seeing. How do I know this.....I have asked them. They are busy...they are working more hours than me....that's saying something. They have multiple time zones they are working on...they aren't overly staffed. Each employee is doing MORE than their OWN role. They are working for us....
They do not spend extra detail, time and money in sure'ing up their evidence for the FDA for nothing. A Short term company, fly by night company WILL NOT hold a Pre IND AND a Type C to fully mitigate anything they have missed.
A company that knows it's potential, knows the sheer volume of runways they have will not spend precious dollars getting the best consultants in the world, YES I'm talking Dr Felson, I'm talking Donna our CMO...I'm talking some of the top PI's and the staff appointments. Again let me state for the record, these guys are working damn hard for us.....HOW DO YOU KNOW MOZZ? I have chatted to some myself.
There is a phenomenal amount of working that is being done in the background...a lot of it I don't have any clues about, but there are a few hints I'm getting in terms of work loads and what's involved. One such clue is a good engineering mate of mine who just gave me an example of some Due diligence he needed to do for his own personal company, he told me it was 5 weeks of hell...researching this...putting together that...speaking to multiple parties, getting the paper work all correct and readable...not a fun task...I know for a fact PAR has done this to set up their data room...its a massive task....made more massive by the fact that they are acutely aware of their funds and want to spend each dollar in the proper and effective way.
WHAT DO WE SEE?
We see the top of the ocean water line....bobbing gently up and down..some days up..maybe more days down....BUT...I tempt you to look under the water...under the covers...there is a bustling sea life you can't even begin to understand.
Boring and lifeless on top (LEFT ABOVE), underneath the water line (RIGHT ABOVE), hive of activity...don't be fooled, a lot going on underneath the surface.
..the scurrying around of the staff..the meetings they have...the ungodly and unfair hours they have to do to satisfy Aussie operations...a bit of German hours and of course USA hours...did you know we are also SIMULTANEOUSLY working with Europe?
Now this is enough hard work as it is,,,,please now add in the fact that how big is their head office team...no really...guess...is it 200?
Nope...I doubt it is more than 50.
Probably closer to 30?
COMPLAIN IF YOU MUST
If you think they can do a better job...that's fine....maybe they can tighten up on their communications..maybe they can't...there are many reasons that they do things but most of it is deliberate for a reason! THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE COMPANIES ...
Now of course there are slips...there are leanings...you get that...but consider what they have undertaken..it's hats off to them from me.
If I were to work at PAR, as an employee, the one thing that would drive me to excellence and that much hard work is the pure delight of knowing that one day....we could very well be one of the biggest companies...one of the most important...and perhaps more than that...just you imagine how much pain we will resolve...how much life we will give back, how many hundreds of thousands....really?...ok millions, we will fix. OA affects some 600 million people in the world today and that CAGR is growing by at least 8% pa. We may not get to everyone but even 3% of that will equate to BILLIONS if you are an EARLY shareholder (as of today, ie even if you just bought your first parcel just last week).
NO, this isn't a company for everyone, not at this stage anyway....but let me tell you once we get going, once we have real revenue...once we have registration and deals behind us, we will have a different set of valuations and comparisons....but I have a sneaking suspicion that our beloved share price will have moved a little on upwards by then, eh' ?
DISCLAIMERS
I am not on PAR's payroll, I am independent....if YOU reading this buy or sell, it makes no difference to me...I do this as a community service. I'm convinced, I don't need to convince you, I don't really care what you do. I know what I have researched, I know how this compares to whatever else I have researched... I do this purely, simply out of the goodness of my heart - True Dinks. @edski1 and others, this is Aussie slang meaning "I tell the truth".
Though we aren't that company that grooms itself for a SHORT period of time, ready to be taken over...WE DO NOT WANT TO BE TAKEN OVER...this is not the end game...we want a PARTNERSHIP DEAL..we want a meaningful VALUABLE distributional partnership...we want the respect our amazing drug commands,....and this takes time. BUT this is not without any risk.
NO MATTER what I say to you, you must do your own research. What suits me, may or not NOT suit you. There may be risks I can't see....you can't see...we can't see. Be mindful of this. DO NOT over invest in one idea.....always consider WHAT IF WE ARE WRONG.
This is not just another company, nor just another drug. Long termers, stick with it, my views.
PS: Mate, when I was a kid I used to be enthralled with just the title of "The Amazing Spiderman" comics....I'm working on even more scientific posts in terms of the amazing action of iPPS... I reckon its on
PAR with Spidey himself!
Not many suspect our real power...in my opinion. It's coming.
REFERENCES
1) 100 Baggers Book - Christopher Mayer:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-find-the-next-100-bagger#:~:text=In fact, Christopher Mayer, author,"get rich quick" scheme.
2)
https://meaww.com/how-much-money-star-wars-make-worth-franchise-revenues-movies-merchandise