AVZ Discussion 2022

[TDITD]

The original pit design in the DFS was based on the results of the drilling available up to 2020.
The 2022 and this year's drilling is being carried out to determine the real pit design.

If you look at page 4 of the quarterly report, one could say that 500 Mt could well be a pretty conservative guesstimation.
Have also a look at he DFS and the original boundaries of the pit.
I think it is better to wait for the official announcement to avoid big mistakes.

Cost.....
Think about CXO selling 1.4% Li2O DSO for ~US$950/T lately and you will need a calculator with lots of zeros, or an abacus he size of a Woolies carpark.
Think more along Nuts US$10

And don't forget the fukkin tin!

Give us the ML pronto.

That BFS is going to be insane !!

A little sugar on top with an increase on what is already the biggest resource.

Poor tin keeps on being forgotten, artisanal tin will be great for local jobs, smelting onsite too. Nice little side earner along with...

DSO, and I know it's not allowed but that's in with Felix's apology he can give us a 12month reprisal on DSO from date of our 1st delivery for being so slow and dim-witted in the way his country has (not)dealt with the crime around us.

The alternative is 3 quarters of $ left, an we keep waiting.

I know which one I prefer.

 

[Chilla]

Give us the ML pronto.

That BFS is going to be insane !!

A little sugar on top with an increase on what is already the biggest resource.

Poor tin keeps on being forgotten, artisanal tin will be great for local jobs, smelting onsite too. Nice little side earner along with...

DSO, and I know it's not allowed but that's in with Felix's apology he can give us a 12month reprisal on DSO from date of our 1st delivery for being so slow and dim-witted in the way his country has (not)dealt with the crime around us.

The alternative is 3 quarters of $ left, an we keep waiting.

I know which one I prefer.

Still have $50mil undrawn equity capital facility available which was prepaid in shares as security. Smartest thing Nige has done imo.

No risk of running out of funds until end 2024 at current burn rate.

 

[wombat74]

I'll go out on a limb here and suggest we will not trade again . Either way the cards fall we will be bought out . imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

Thanks CD - don't waste your time on it please. Just let me know where the info popped up (here or HC for example) and I'll do the digging.

Cheers.
TC.

I've had a good search using the keywords I thought would bring it up. I also have looked through a private chat I have with some mates for AVZ and couldn't find anything there either. From memory it was posted here and it was for around 1m to 1.5m shares done after market. I also vaguely remember checking it myself on the Commsec app to make sure it was real. But I can't find any proof that it happened so maybe I dreamt it haha

 

[Carlos Danger]

So, let's break this down a bit:-

ASX Trading volumes

Explains what data is distributed by the ASX.

To save you a little time, there is a line in there that clearly says:-

"Monthly trading volumes include all trades occurring within a particular month, including those conducted off-market."

So, does that mean when I download the ASX activity from my Commsec account and AVZ doesn't show (as we're in suspension) that there has been zero activity - on or off-market?

Note: AVZ has not been in the daily download since May 2022 and John25 may correct me here, but isn't that 37 weeks ago?

If these so-called off-market buyers had bought shares, wouldn't it show up?

Asking for a friend.
TC.

Thanks CD.

Where are these screenshots? - I'd like to dig some more... With all the false info floating around, particularly with the new screenshots on HC, I reckon there's going to be some holes...

Cheers.
TC.

I've had a good search using the keywords I thought would bring it up. I also have looked through a private chat I have with some mates for AVZ and couldn't find anything there either. From memory it was posted here and it was for around 1m to 1.5m shares done after market. I also vaguely remember checking it myself on the Commsec app to make sure it was real. But I can't find any proof that it happened so maybe I dreamt it haha

One thing I can confirm is that total short positions have moved around during suspension and are lower than when we started. So some trading whether through cross trades or done off market is occurring imo

 

[Chilla]

I'll go out on a limb here and suggest we will not trade again . Either way the cards fall we will be bought out . imo

Shorters better pray then they only have to pay $10 per share TO price and not the Zijin TO price of $12

 

[wombat74]

Shorters better pray then they only have to pay $10 per share TO price and not the Zijin TO price of $12

I think shorters realise by now they have no way out of this . They are screwed .

 

[ptlas]

I think shorters realise by now they have no way out of this . They are screwed .

Wombie, you seem to maintain a healthy scepticism (or cynicism) not dissimilar to mine.
Just wondering what guestimate you have for the price should we be bought out and never trade again.
Fine if you don't wanna say, or already have.
Just asking for a friend.

 

[TheCount]

I've had a good search using the keywords I thought would bring it up. I also have looked through a private chat I have with some mates for AVZ and couldn't find anything there either. From memory it was posted here and it was for around 1m to 1.5m shares done after market. I also vaguely remember checking it myself on the Commsec app to make sure it was real. But I can't find any proof that it happened so maybe I dreamt it haha

Thanks CD - there's something happening behind the scenes as referencing a post from MoneyBags I jumped on https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/avz and it has last traded as this morning at 7am .. .. .. ..

Much digging to be done..

TC.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Wombie, you seem to maintain a healthy scepticism (or cynicism) not dissimilar to mine.
Just wondering what guestimate you have for the price should we be bought out and never trade again.
Fine if you don't wanna say, or already have.
Just asking for a friend.

IMO, we'll be bought out at around 90c (approximately 15% premium).

As I've stated before, very happy with $1. Even at that price, the vast majority of LTH 's would be in the black by a healthy margin.

 

[Chilla]

IMO, we'll be bought out at around 90c (approximately 15% premium).

As I've stated before, very happy with $1. Even at that price, the vast majority of LTH 's would be in the black by a healthy margin.

No chance an offer of that nature would ever make it to shareholders......Nige wouldnt give it 1 second of consideration before tossing it in the bin

 

[Misfits]

No chance an offer of that nature would ever make it to shareholders......Nige wouldnt give it 1 second of consideration before tossing it in the bin

Agree, $2 min

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

IMO, we'll be bought out at around 90c (approximately 15% premium).

As I've stated before, very happy with $1. Even at that price, the vast majority of LTH 's would be in the black by a healthy margin.

$10
$10
$10
or $12 if you are Ziljin

 

[Uglybob]

Some interesting background info. Nothing specific, but helps understand a lot.

 

[Scoota30]

Agree, $2 min

IMO $10B USD min with ML in hand and updated BFS, Hydroxide facility study and 10mtpa study. Anything less with ML in hand is a sin.

$10B USD = $14.2B AUD
$14.2B / 3.5B SOI = $4 TO target Minimum.

IMO IMO IMO IMO

 

[PutUsernameHere]

So, let's break this down a bit:-

ASX Trading volumes

Explains what data is distributed by the ASX.

To save you a little time, there is a line in there that clearly says:-

"Monthly trading volumes include all trades occurring within a particular month, including those conducted off-market."

So, does that mean when I download the ASX activity from my Commsec account and AVZ doesn't show (as we're in suspension) that there has been zero activity - on or off-market?

Note: AVZ has not been in the daily download since May 2022 and John25 may correct me here, but isn't that 37 weeks ago?

If these so-called off-market buyers had bought shares, wouldn't it show up?

Asking for a friend.
TC.

There's not a heap of overall change, but shorting position has supposedly gone down since the original suspension so trading off-market must be happening somewhere for those bumps where positions are closed. Admittedly I can't find daily figures, but on the 22nd Dec is looks like around 43M short position was closed out, followed by a new short position of 41M taken up on the 23rd...

 

[Remark]

Solidarity brothers and sisters, we have some unwanted attention from this absolute tosser....

 

[Charbella]

I will make a call to AVZ today and report back. The email is 100% scam.
Clearly not the brightest guy if he thinks the email is legit.

I called the number and it went to Ben’s message bank. Left a message, will report back.

 

[Chilla]

IMO $10B USD min with ML in hand and updated BFS, Hydroxide facility study and 10mtpa study. Anything less with ML in hand is a sin.

$10B USD = $14.2B AUD
$14.2B / 3.5B SOI = $4 TO target Minimum.

IMO IMO IMO IMO

Would have to be all cash offer and done and dusted quickly for that to get up as the project becomes more valuable as the market deficit increases and the projects development progresses

 

[obe wan]

My thinking is that in the event the ML is not forthcoming we will sell what we have / bought out by the Chinese . So makes sense to drill the sh1t out of it while we wait and add as much value as we can . This could be plan B imo .

Yep ; I heard they dropped one through the northern area in the recent campaign early

One thing I can confirm is that total short positions have moved around during suspension and are lower than when we started. So some trading whether through cross trades or done off market is occurring imo
View attachment 28404

ye I remember that short movement , however that seemed to have been an administration screwup as a number of stocks had a significant movement in short positions over the same time , until shortman fixed them all and they basically returned to the previous value, albeit AVZ was a little lower by about 4 million.