AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
That, imo, is reasonable.
PLS is currently at 14B market Cap.
for AVZ to get there - it'll need to increase SP by 7x.
= $5.46.
allow a 20% discount for not being in production which would be also offset, somewhat, by the resource and hopefully the updated DFS/BFS.
= $4.368.
Scoota30
Regular
Would be an absolute steal in the long run for whoever could end up grabbing it for that price, but i have been swayed heavily into the TO once ML crowd as long as it gets flicked in quick time like @Chilla says. a 5x return from where we are right now at 70c to be done with this, i don't think you'll catch too many people complaining.
I don't have half as much faith anymore in the BoD, the DRC Gov and the chinese interference to try to take this to mine ourselves. Sell it to a big boy like RIO and let them deal with it.
Stockinvesting
Regular
I know it's low ball Chilla.
That's my point.
No ML. No TO in vicinity of crazy predictions like $2 to $5.
It just isn't realistic. Chinese choking us, in for the long, long game. DRC corruption entrenched.
I believe I'm close to being on the money. Wish I didn't.
Samus
Top 20
This is the sensible path forward imo. Sell it to a major with a MC larger than the DRC's GDP.
Doubtful you'll see the sort of shenanigans afforded to a pissant explorer like AVZ by the criminals over there.
That's if they'll take it at a reasonable price after the sort of shit we've witnessed over the past 10+ months.
Personally I could live with $1 plus with anything more being a bonus. Beats loosing the lot which seems just as likely as any potential takeover right now. I'll take 50c over pissing my initial investment down the drain and put it down to experience.
The fact that neither the board nor the DRC can get this over the line to everybody's benefit in a red hot lithium market tells me everything I need to know.
Still prefer $10 or $12 to zijin though Wino...
Chilla
Regular
They wont sell it unless at least 66-75% confirmed, ML rec'd, 10MTPA BFS done, Resource Upgrade done, PLS Study done, SEZ awarded. That is why $4-5 is a reasonable range if someone wants to buy it. A lot of that is done or nearly done and awaits ML for release, hence the $8mil spend per quarter on exploration and studies to have it all ready to go as soon as ML awarded.
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
Been reading some interesting positions on the potential TO prices
The value of the resource is increasing day by day as the Lithium deficit grows, the resource size is increased through drilling assessments and the price of the commodity climbs
The longer it takes for any of the potential players to stump up a decent offer the higher the price is going every single day
Get it into your heads potential buyers.....
$10
$10
$10...
Oh.....and $12 Zijin....fuckers
The value of the resource is increasing day by day as the Lithium deficit grows, the resource size is increased through drilling assessments and the price of the commodity climbs
The longer it takes for any of the potential players to stump up a decent offer the higher the price is going every single day
Get it into your heads potential buyers.....
$10
$10
$10...
Oh.....and $12 Zijin....fuckers
Frank
Top 20
Corruption perception index: DRC placed 166th globally
In a report published this Tuesday, January 31, 2023 by Transparency International on the Corruption Perceptions Index for the year 2022, a report according to which corruption remains at the root of the multiple crises in the world and affects the security of several nations .
According to this report, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is among the five least peaceful countries in the world and the Corruption Perceptions Index, CPI, also places it among the bottom 20 most corrupt countries in the world with a score of 20%. , compared to 19% obtained in 2021.
However, at the global level, the average score is 55%.
At the regional level, sub-Saharan Africa obtains a score of 32% with a regression of 1% compared to the year 2021.
“Since President Tshisekedi came to power, he has shown his political commitment to fighting corruption and achieving higher levels of integrity, transparency and accountability, notably through the creation of the Coordination for Change Mentality, the Agency for the Prevention and Fight against Corruption, the strengthening of the General Inspectorate of Finance and the rehabilitation of the Court of Auditors.
Despite these efforts, no significant improvement is being felt,” reveals the Congolese Anti-Corruption League.
These results show that the Democratic Republic of Congo does not always manage to deal with security problems in the eastern part of the country because of corruption.
Many experts note that corruption is growing in the public sector and enforcement measures remain weak.
It should be remembered that no less than 15 billion dollars vanish each year as a result of corruption, Professor Luzolo Bambi, former adviser to Joseph Kabila in the fight against corruption and money laundering.
mediacongo
Food for thought on the long and winding road to Manono
Frank
*To add, I see where,
Cooperation: "The volume of DRC-China trade increased by 51.7% in 2022" (Ambassador Zhu Jing)
Trade between the People's Republic of China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo broke a record again, registering $21.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.7 percent.
With this new record, China has kept the place of the first foreign investor in the DRC for the 4th consecutive year, announced Zhu Jing, Chinese Ambassador to the DRC, Monday, January 30 in Kinshasa, on the occasion of the feast of the Spring marking the beginning of the Chinese New Year under the sign of the rabbit.
In front of Congolese diplomats and officials, including the Speaker of the Upper House of Parliament, Modeste Bahati Lukwebo, the Chinese Ambassador said that significant progress has been made in major cooperation projects such as the Cultural and Artistic Center of the countries of Central Africa and the Kinsuka substation in Kinshasa.
“In the New Year, China is ready to work with the DRC to further implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, strengthen high-level exchanges, consolidate political mutual trust and to deepen pragmatic cooperation in mining, infrastructure, industry, education, health, security and defense,” Zhu Jing said, before announcing that he is preparing to leave the DRC where he was posted for three years and two months.
In 50 years of Sino-Congolese friendship, trade between the two countries has multiplied by 450 and the achievements of this cooperation in terms of infrastructure, social, educational, cultural are visible in the four corners of the DRC.
mediacongo
Stockinvesting
Regular
I believe they won't have a choice if the money runs out.
And that I believe is the Chinese angle.
Chilla
Regular
Enough money for well into next year. They could easily get a decent cap raise done if required but they wont need that...as when the ML is issued Mr Pei will be paying for 9% minimum so thats US$90mil to AVZ coffers. AVZ can be the one to play the long game and the price will continue to rise.
TDITD
Top 20
I believe you have been conditioned into looking at it from the enemies point of view and have capitulated after being worn down after all this time (anyone saying this shitshow hasn't worn them down is either telling huge porkies or a psychopath). That is exactly what they want all of us shareholders to do so we pressure the board into accepting a pitifully low TO offer like the one you shockingly
mentioned. (Thank god we don't have ESS board for example)Granted we are being choked, but you are missing all in our favour :
We have ICC cases where we WILL win (don't want hear ifs or buts, look at how MMCS went) - Big impact on leverage
We have a BFS that will value us far higher - Big impact on value
We are drilling for further resource - So so impact on value
We have Felix reshuffling Lukondes corrupt cesspit - Big impact on ML being delivered
We have access to a further $50 mil which it unfortunately looks like we will use - Big impact on our longevity to hold past ICC issues
We have pineapples - Big impact on Meme quality
Nigel and the BOD would never go for such a silly price which I bet they have already been given verbally
Jesus even the scam was at $1.5 AUD wasnt it ?
In my view 90cents is a crazy prediction when you factor in the cards we still hold. Thank god your not close to the money mate, very happy to have you wire me the difference from 90cents if this does get brought out, you know to keep you happy
Stockinvesting
Regular
ML. That's the key, obviously.
What you say makes perfect sense. I'm suggesting we're not going to get it. It'll be issued to whatever company takes us over.
I'm saying the entity will be Chinese.
Further, who would put more money into the company for a cap raise right now anyway. You'd have to be crazy.
Mate I hope I'm wrong.
Unfortunately there's not a skerrick of evidence to suggest we're doing anything other than treading water. Even the recent quarterly offered no glimmer of hope that I could see.
Same old, same old.
Agree. Without a ML we aren't getting over our ATH.
Stockinvesting
Regular
Cheers. Good luck to us all.I believe you have been conditioned into looking at it from the enemies point of view and have capitulated after being worn down after all this time (anyone saying this shitshow hasn't worn them down is either telling huge porkies or a psychopath). That is exactly what they want all of us shareholders to do so we pressure the board into accepting a pitifully low TO offer like the one you shockingly
Granted we are being choked, but you are missing all in our favour :
We have ICC cases where we WILL win (don't want hear ifs or buts, look at how MMCS went) - Big impact on leverage
We have a BFS that will value us far higher - Big impact on value
We are drilling for further resource - So so impact on value
We have Felix reshuffling Lukondes corrupt cesspit - Big impact on ML being delivered
We have access to a further $50 mil which it unfortunately looks like we will use - Big impact on our longevity to hold past ICC issues
We have pineapples - Big impact on Meme quality
Nigel and the BOD would never go for such a silly price which I bet they have already been given verbally
Jesus even the scam was at $1.5 AUD wasnt it ?
In my view 90cents is a crazy prediction when you factor in the cards we still hold. Thank god your not close to the money mate, very happy to have you wire me the difference from 90cents if this does get brought out, you know to keep you happy
Carlos Danger
Top 20
I believe you have been conditioned into looking at it from the enemies point of view and have capitulated after being worn down after all this time (anyone saying this shitshow hasn't worn them down is either telling huge porkies or a psychopath). That is exactly what they want all of us shareholders to do so we pressure the board into accepting a pitifully low TO offer like the one you shockingly
Granted we are being choked, but you are missing all in our favour :
We have ICC cases where we WILL win (don't want hear ifs or buts, look at how MMCS went) - Big impact on leverage
We have a BFS that will value us far higher - Big impact on value
We are drilling for further resource - So so impact on value
We have Felix reshuffling Lukondes corrupt cesspit - Big impact on ML being delivered
We have access to a further $50 mil which it unfortunately looks like we will use - Big impact on our longevity to hold past ICC issues
We have pineapples - Big impact on Meme quality
Nigel and the BOD would never go for such a silly price which I bet they have already been given verbally
Jesus even the scam was at $1.5 AUD wasnt it ?
In my view 90cents is a crazy prediction when you factor in the cards we still hold. Thank god your not close to the money mate, very happy to have you wire me the difference from 90cents if this does get brought out, you know to keep you happy
A fair deal is one where both parties feel like they are giving a bit of ground. There is no chance AVZ management will sell for less than 1.38 or they will be opening themselves up to potential class action from investors that lost money. Also there is no chance anyone would pay more than 2.00 to takeover this shitshow as it currently stands unless there is a feverish bidding war.
The answer lies somewhere in the middle of 1.38 and 2.00 until the licence is registered. And I can't see management selling anytime soon after the licence is registered. Especially considering they have been promising the DRC government that they aren't just speculators. Would be a terrible look if we just turned around and flogged it off once getting the licence. Will only be sold if there is no action on finalising the licence from the DRC government in the next few months imo
Chilla
Regular
They will not entertain any offer until ML awarded and the barrage of stacked up announcements hit the street and are reflected in the market. So there will be no TO until at least then.
There is plenty going on but will not be announced until the ML is awarded....you dont go telling the enemy all of your intel before you have a solid position.
Cap Raise would be to insto's and sophs...you wouldnt get invited. It would be easily filled but wont be necessary once Mr Pei hands over at least US$90 mil.
Stockinvesting
Regular
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
Sold!
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