Xerof
Flaming 1967
Very interesting perspective......
1. I think so, yes. Contacts on the Hill/DC and in Kinshasa imply it. West is not sanctioning Rwanda over M23 rebels (like Obama/Norway/UK did in 2012) and so holding up Western-led investments as leverage.
2. Complicated but similar to Russia and Russia-speakers in the Donbas/Crimea. Partly seeks to protect ethnic Tutsis in DRC (but is super cynical in how they do this, like Russia w/ ethnic Russians in SE Ukraine), partly a "legitimate security concern" (Hutu genocide killers/FDLR heavily present in Kivu provinces on its border), partly straight up greed/ theft (Rwanda is a transit point for clandestine gold, tin, coltan, etc). So, destabilizing DRC in its interests.
3. To be clear, FT and most of the non-Kabila opposition moderate on East/West stuff. I want to be clear abt that. But M23 and perceived Western hypocrisy on Ukraine ("why the interest in Ukraine but not similar interest in Congolese? Or Palestinians?") plus China and Russian disinfo campaigns increasing hostility towards the West among regular Africans. Well, politicians' sense that and as in any nation a struggling pol always finds a scapegoat by tapping into this (or really any) sentiment. Most ppl around FT is moderate but he does have a few key ones he needs to maintain power who are not unfortunately. ((Princess and PM))
4. While "democratic", DRC's political system is basically a vast patronage network. Per the ones well known in history (Tammany Hall here in NYC, Borgia's in Rome/Catholic Church back in the day), the symptoms are bad governance, a ton of corruption, arbitrary rule. Problem is, DRC is poor so far more clients than patrons. This creates a cycle. Not enough "brown bags" to give out and this leads to bad governance. Bad governance contributes to poverty. And eventually, all the internal rivalry and conflict for position plus grinding poverty leads to terrible violence. FT has not chosen to reform this system as he needs it at this time. If he were to give AVZ the license it would upset the balance w/ the old top patron, former Prez Kabila who likely is the beneficial owner of Dathomir Int'l.
1. I think so, yes. Contacts on the Hill/DC and in Kinshasa imply it. West is not sanctioning Rwanda over M23 rebels (like Obama/Norway/UK did in 2012) and so holding up Western-led investments as leverage.
2. Complicated but similar to Russia and Russia-speakers in the Donbas/Crimea. Partly seeks to protect ethnic Tutsis in DRC (but is super cynical in how they do this, like Russia w/ ethnic Russians in SE Ukraine), partly a "legitimate security concern" (Hutu genocide killers/FDLR heavily present in Kivu provinces on its border), partly straight up greed/ theft (Rwanda is a transit point for clandestine gold, tin, coltan, etc). So, destabilizing DRC in its interests.
3. To be clear, FT and most of the non-Kabila opposition moderate on East/West stuff. I want to be clear abt that. But M23 and perceived Western hypocrisy on Ukraine ("why the interest in Ukraine but not similar interest in Congolese? Or Palestinians?") plus China and Russian disinfo campaigns increasing hostility towards the West among regular Africans. Well, politicians' sense that and as in any nation a struggling pol always finds a scapegoat by tapping into this (or really any) sentiment. Most ppl around FT is moderate but he does have a few key ones he needs to maintain power who are not unfortunately. ((Princess and PM))
4. While "democratic", DRC's political system is basically a vast patronage network. Per the ones well known in history (Tammany Hall here in NYC, Borgia's in Rome/Catholic Church back in the day), the symptoms are bad governance, a ton of corruption, arbitrary rule. Problem is, DRC is poor so far more clients than patrons. This creates a cycle. Not enough "brown bags" to give out and this leads to bad governance. Bad governance contributes to poverty. And eventually, all the internal rivalry and conflict for position plus grinding poverty leads to terrible violence. FT has not chosen to reform this system as he needs it at this time. If he were to give AVZ the license it would upset the balance w/ the old top patron, former Prez Kabila who likely is the beneficial owner of Dathomir Int'l.
Last edited: