Not sure Felix is in a position to play silly buggers . His country is being f--k over by rebels and his pathetic reputation is being f--ked over by trying to f--k over AVZ . As Trump would point out ,Felix doesn't hold any cards . The obvious part of the deal that has given this the go ahead is Zijin keep the North . Which one could argue has been their plan all along in the event AVZ secured funding for ICSID .Things appear to, and imho are, moving apace in a positive direction.
Don't wanna be a killjoy, but we need to remember a few things, not all bad.
In no particular order:
All of what you are reading are stories. Remember the AFR - every publication / author has an agenda.
Smoke & mirrors from the players - tell the opposition anything but the truth. Better still, tell them nothing. The numbers thrown around are part of this.
Maybe we don't even know who all of the players are or who the alliances are.
Surprisingly, and I know that it will be a shock to most here, publications and players sometimes collude to spread disinformation.
They really do. Tom told me.
None of these stories are talking of a deal(s) having been done. The art of negotiation is to do negotiate in private (unless you're the world's greatest negotiator).
This is jockeying for position / influence / priority.
It is almost certainly good for AVZ if an auction is brewing, but this may well delay our potential $$ compared with a quick sale.
None of the mentioned big players / billionaires got to that position by being generous in negotiation or deal making. They are all undoubtedly ruthless SoB (or daughters lol). They'll pay the lowest price that they can get away with.
USA has been playing catch-up for a few years now, but they HAVE been catching up. The Lobito corridor was evidence of that and is something that appears to be being overlooked. The logistics of export are no longer being discussed.
Grumpy Trumpy, Vladi's gimp. Mr unpredictable, the only predictable trait is that he will act out of self-interest. In this case, that is USA.
Consequently, we can hope that he will favour AVZ. My guess is that he will - in so far as AVZ retains as much interest / lithium licence as possible.
I foresee a potential problem though, where Trump demands AVZ repay him / US / his mates in some way for services rendered or to be rendered in a similar manner to what he pulled with Zelensky, but maybe in a private setting.
It's guaranteed that he will do NO favours for AVZ unless it benefits his / US interests or he is repaid in some way.
The world seems to have woken up to the impending explosion ( pun intended ) of battery storage that could well cause a large increase of the Li price. AVZ would undoubtedly include this in negotiations and it would be big in everyone else's head.
AVZ still does not have a mining licence. Nor is one 100% guaranteed.
These are just a few issues that sprang to the front of my mind. There are many others, but essentially it is a rapidly moving dynamic situation.
As always with AVZ, expect the unexpected.
It may well be rapidly resolved, but with court cases, geopolitical rivalries, massive egos, zillions of dollars and multiple players, I don't expect that it will be.
Just look at Ukraine where, apparently, Zelensky doesn't hold any cards, but has not signed a minerals deal.
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