Not my post but Obseverr on HC 15/04/25
Understanding the Technology adoption cycle:
It's a very relevant question, and sure some holders are experiencing the classic contradiction of world-changing tech, yet no substance. And may be even questioning why despite the validations, partnerships, and benchmark studies, neuromorphic computing still feels like it’s not on the radar?
The high-level paper shared by MarketingMan did spell out the tech lifecycle, and it's true to some effect. Though there is some further reality.
First, because BRN is a deep tech play i.e. it's not an AI hype cycle stock (yet). Additionally, neuromorphic computing is not a by-product of traditional AI. It's a complete and fundamental rethinking of AI at the egde. For example, the market including the traditional media are focused on Gen AI, scaling of GPUs (Nvidia's case), and other things like cloud based inference etc. All of these are just an incremental evolution of AI that is known as of today. Now, when this is compared with what BRN brings with neuromorphic computing, then it is contrasted by focus on event-based, low power, edge native and, brain inspired computing. So, as you can observe, this does not fit into the current AI narrative or its infrastructure. Though, this may seem like a negative, but actually it is favourable because the AI market will need to pivot (and very fast) when it hits its ceiling, which is right in front.
Second, if you notice, the heavyweights have not come out with this technology publicly in the 'mainstream media' yet, though it is very much active in the background. However, if and when Nvidia, Intel or IBM (or even others) start to openly commercialise their own neuromorphic chips, that is when the market will be flipped on its back. Tis' the reason BRN is gearing up for the US of A, to enter the market at a precise time, and it's coming fast. You should 'only' be worried, if BRN gets this timing wrong and they are not in that market when the narrative suddenly changes, and that the heavyweights go public.
Third, from a revenue perspective, one has to understand that Akida as a product (all versions to date) has been validated by big names in the industry, however, this is where it comes back to the paper because, it's early days of tech adoption. Meaning, early adopters are still testing, refining and developing their products. Post this is when volume licensing and OEM integration will fall into their respective place on the lifecycle.
Realistically, you're only looking at 12-24 months wait (the AI ceiling is that close!). To put this into perspective, it took quite long for LiDAR companies to start making revenue, and it was not until they were integrated as a product.
Anyways, I'll leave all with this - the smart money starts to accumulate when tech or products are being validated, tested or built, not when the market sees their release, or when suddenly the narrative changes in the mainstream news i.e. the start of a new hype cycle.
