AVZ Discussion 2022

[Remark]

Well, this piece of shit has changed his tune, now he's a LT holder What an absolute tool!

https://x.com/LaRsDrank/status/1920303161148924024

 

[cruiser51]

I swear some people want us to get fuck all for this

Stralia for Stralia, the yanks think the entire world is theirs, because they make bigger bombs.

The don had to be explained that Canada, same as the White House and Buckingham Palace, is not for sale.

He burped, farted and showed his false teeth in response, at the end of the day he is a show man overdosed on carotene.

 

[Xerof]

Well, this piece of shit has changed his tune, now he's a LT holder What an absolute tool!

View attachment 84117

https://x.com/LaRsDrank/status/1920303161148924024

Careful there laddie, he's in love with the Green Mamba Princess, and you may hurt their feelings with rash comments like that

 

[mikejoho]

Sir Les…‘AFAIK Shane never shorted or bet $AVZ would fail, that’s just another fiction on a guy you’ve likely never had a conversation with’

So…. A fictional guy referring to another guy, who is actually the same guy as the fictional guy, lecturing another guy about fictional conversations with a guy.

Anyway….Carry On…(Up The Tanganyika)

 

[cruiser51]

I think Gus was calling the dickwit out for his bullshit, not the other way round. Gus is correct in saying it's never been over USD1, so how the fuck could the dickwit be losing

Leave Gus alone, he's on our side all the way

Just a minor thing, Manono reserves have been updated since AVZ was delisted

 

[LOCKY82]

I think Gus was calling the dickwit out for his bullshit, not the other way round. Gus is correct in saying it's never been over USD1, so how the fuck could the dickwit be losing

Leave Gus alone, he's on our side all the way

I suppose said dickwit might have made a mistake in the excitement of it all and your mate gus came in to let him know

 

[wombat74]

If Nigel postpones the ICISD it means he is confident a deal is in the bag . If the ICSID goes ahead he's not confident. Only 3 weeks to find out .

 

[Shire]

I wonder if AVZ had to hose down the announcement from KoBold a little with the non-binding comments …. I’m sure they’re getting a lot of ‘what the farks?‘ from CATH.

 

[webclever]

Not sure how I feel about the AVZ update — feels a bit underwhelming. Maybe I’m just being impatient after three years of this mess.
Either way, I’m stepping back from social media for a bit. Hope everyone enjoys their weekend. Fingers crossed for another update in a couple of weeks.

 

[ptlas]

Not sure how I feel about the AVZ update — feels a bit underwhelming. Maybe I’m just being impatient after three years of this mess.
Either way, I’m stepping back from social media for a bit. Hope everyone enjoys their weekend. Fingers crossed for another update in a couple of weeks.

It is very underwhelming.

I feel like we're being set up for the pineappling to end all pineapplings.

 

[Skar]

The don had to be explained that Canada, same as the White House and Buckingham Palace, is not for sale.

He burped, farted and showed his false teeth in response, at the end of the day he is a show man overdosed on carotene.

That... or he was intentionally obnoxious/sensationalist so that other countries would push back and instil weak left leaning leaders he could utterly decimate in trade negotiations... like he just did with the UK. Do you think he wanted to negotiate with Poilievre or Carney.

Edit: there is a reason he never endorsed any right leaning foreign parties (he has to negotiate with them later if he does).

 

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

Hey mate, for fun can you ask the ai if it is likely to include Kobold shares in the deal? I think that would be pretty sweet.

 

[Spikerama]

Hey mate, for fun can you ask the ai if it is likely to include Kobold shares in the deal? I think that would be pretty sweet.

Hey mate, for fun, why don't you fucking ask it? You know... just for fun. That would be pretty sweet.

 

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

G'day Lollipop,

I'm pretty sure the $1billion is to invest in building the mine, not to buy us out. Please check.

Cheers,
Nells xx

Yes this is how I interpreted it. In the mining industry "investing" has different connotations and implies development above ground.

 

[obe wan]

Not sure how I feel about the AVZ update — feels a bit underwhelming. Maybe I’m just being impatient after three years of this mess.
Either way, I’m stepping back from social media for a bit. Hope everyone enjoys their weekend. Fingers crossed for another update in a couple of weeks.

The announcement reads as if NF is saying hey hold on Kobold ; you forgot a couple of words from your announcement I.e ‘non Binding’ . Kobold never mention the ‘non blinding’ part; Kobold doesn’t have very deep pockets without reaching out to its high profile investors and issuing pretty serious bulk shareholdings of the company in exchange for the cash NF considers ‘fair’.

Kobolds likely trying to pass it out to the market that terms have been agreed, so no need for any other entities need approach, you’ve missed the boat ; fanning away any potential approaches by others

AVZs ann today pretty much say the gates still ajar with the ‘non binding’ statement . Kobold clearly grinding away for a cheap deal I’d say.

If according to Kobolds announcement yesterday ; FT is on board with flogging this thing to a US entity … then roll up other suitors ; any yank suitor / possibly western will do … DRC have shown their hand and the agreement between AVZ & Kobold is not binding

 

[memem2323]

Quick question, how would I get access to my shares again ? these went to automotic or something ?

If I dont have the letter with new hih number whats the best course of action ?

Ive been meaning to do this but just been a bit busy and I keep an eye on this from time to time. But with the newer developments I was like shit I better get my hands on these again.

 

[Spikerama]

Quick question, how would I get access to my shares again ? these went to automotic or something ?

If I dont have the letter with new hih number whats the best course of action ?

Ive been meaning to do this but just been a bit busy and I keep an eye on this from time to time. But with the newer developments I was like shit I better get my hands on these again.

There's no such thing as an HIH number. It's either a HIN or an SRN.

Check your share statement from your broker or trading platform from when you bought the shares. It will have a HIN or and SRN clearly marked on it. This is what you need to lodge it on to Automic. https://www.automicgroup.com.au/automic-registry/

Get your HIN or SRN and go in there and follow the steps. It's guided. Should be golden after that.

 

[Charbella]

Felix proposed a minerals-for-security deal with the U.S., and Trump is on the cusp of delivering peace agreements. But where are the minerals Felix promised? As far as I’m concerned, Manono -the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposit is the only project ready to launch immediately. It’s the crown jewel and a major win waiting to be claimed by the Trump administration.

Kobald is clearly keen to lock in Manono—you can feel the urgency and desperation in their announcement. But there’s one sticking point: the price on the table doesn’t move Nigel. It’s just enough to open the door to negotiations, nothing more. If Kobald and the U.S. are serious about securing control over lithium supply for decades to come, it’s time to get serious about value. $3.50 AUD per share is the price to pay.

 

[JAG]

 

[Xerof]

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