AVZ Discussion 2022

[robface]

It's taken them 3 years to pass through ISCID process for this one, a likely template for our use, if it goes the full distance?

It's inaccurate to say the case is closed at this point - Tanzania have filed for an annulment, (but appear to be on shaky ground). I'm guessing the ad hoc tribunal suggested they wouldn't even contemplate this request for an annulment, unless Tanzania committed to all the penalties and will accept the conditions of the awards, prior to the hearing (which is what IDA's announcement was all about)

Thanks for posting Bray, a good example of the full process for us to be guided by

Fucken hell

Good to see the process works no matter how long it takes, couldnt find their projects value vs what thier $100+ mil compensation payout was, even in the announcement it mentioned a one billion dollar loan from world bank.

Bit different from the multi billion dollar claim for Manono.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Cominiere now returning to the Balthazar waivering the north document again . Obviously feeling some sort of pressure and back to other avenues I.e. seizing the north .

Cominiere must be coming through as looking like an absolute corrupt bag of shit ; let’s seize the north and let’s increase the boundary perimeter of the north , to also give us some of the south and just claim no work had been complete on this section, obviously the no work theory has been evaporated and at least should revert the boundary to its original position .

It does show how much cominiere actually contributed to the project and paid fuck all attention to anything that went on in the project ; many of the early shareholders will remember a number of the bores which were drilled up in the north actually happened early in the piece where Dathcom were drilling around the camp in a bit of a two pronged approach; 1 was to identify the extension cut off whilst also trying to find a sterile piece of land where camp Dathcom could be built .

I remember when they were carrying out the drilling in the north looking for the plot to build the camp and the company was saying (wording along the lines of ) -

“we were pushing out the drilling to find the edges whilst also trying to find sterile land to build the camp and we were still hitting 175m+ “

Obviously exciting news from a mining perspective fell on the ears of cominiere

https://x.com/cominiereSA/status/1739980821208109248?s=20

View attachment 52852

The MoM seized the tenement

Then Cominiere sold the new north to its JV with Zijin

The idea that Cominiere is acting as some rogue agent without backing all the way up to the top of pride rock is misguided imo

“If he [Tshisekedi] feels like he needs to go ahead with some sort of a deal on the north with Zijin, then we’ll sit down and talk about it,”
- Nigel

 

[Doc]

Cominiere now returning to the Balthazar waivering the north document again . Obviously feeling some sort of pressure and back to other avenues I.e. seizing the north .

Cominiere must be coming through as looking like an absolute corrupt bag of shit ; let’s seize the north and let’s increase the boundary perimeter of the north , to also give us some of the south and just claim no work had been complete on this section, obviously the no work theory has been evaporated and at least should revert the boundary to its original position .

It does show how much cominiere actually contributed to the project and paid fuck all attention to anything that went on in the project ; many of the early shareholders will remember a number of the bores which were drilled up in the north actually happened early in the piece where Dathcom were drilling around the camp in a bit of a two pronged approach; 1 was to identify the extension cut off whilst also trying to find a sterile piece of land where camp Dathcom could be built .

I remember when they were carrying out the drilling in the north looking for the plot to build the camp and the company was saying (wording along the lines of ) -

“we were pushing out the drilling to find the edges whilst also trying to find sterile land to build the camp and we were still hitting 175m+ “

Obviously exciting news from a mining perspective fell on the ears of cominiere

https://x.com/cominiereSA/status/1739980821208109248?s=20

View attachment 52852

What needs to happen for Cominiere to actually take notice of whats happening? So far losing all ICC/ISCID judgments yet zero fucks given.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Yes true , but I think the point is that Cominiere are shedding the skin that AVZ are out of everything / lost the whole pie and now reverting back to the North South slice ; Cominiere clearly got caught on the hop when the results from the Northern tenement came out ; they’re initial reaction on X when it was announced clearly indicated a large direct hit.

Selling the North to Zijin is one thing , but also grabbing a chunk of the south and sliding it onto the plate containing the Northern like no one’s noticed , including it in the deal under the deal claiming it’s part of the north as no work had been undertaken there …. Only to be handed results for 170mt in the same area is pretty fucked up .

The initial North South split boundary issued through Cami clearly had the last bore collar as the point of devision ; AVZ announcement clearly shows significant works carried out in the area ; also shows to a lesser extent works carried out further up north I.e. work chip sampling , but activities non the less whilst we carried out $100m + worth of work to the granted tenement i.e. 221 Carres

“The Carriere de l’Este Maiden Mineral Resource was estimated over a 1.2
km strike length. The pegmatite body joins with the Malata Pegmatite to the
north-east “

The mention of Malata Pegmatite may suggest throwing the rats a bone and there’s a significant Pegmatite that could be dealt . It maybe wise that whilst Zijin are on site , that they relocate a couple of their rigs to the Malata Pegmatite zone and draw some data out of that area before it all potentially gets frozen , so as they know what they potentially can get there hands on , as part of a settling deal

All of the drilling results were previously released

AVZ management are obviously confident that they still own the north. They have used similar language in previous announcements and at the AGM last year.

But it's pretty clear that none of this really matters and everything depends on what Simba wants unless we want to spend years chasing this through international arbitration

This resource estimate was released for negotiation purposes imo

 

[BEISHA]

All of the drilling results were previously released

View attachment 52864

AVZ management are obviously confident that they still own the north. They have used similar language in previous announcements and at the AGM last year.

View attachment 52865

But it's pretty clear that none of this really matters and everything depends on what Simba wants unless we want to spend years chasing this through international arbitration

This resource estimate was released for negotiation purposes imo

I think the resource estimate for CDL was released by AVZ with a two pronged purpose.

a) A salvo to the antagonists that a fair amount of exploration work has been done to prove up 170m/t, so this "Manono lithium JV" is in breach plus its a fact file regards to ICSID arbitration.

b)

And the statement above suggests as you mentioned..........a bargaining / negotiation carrot aka MOU.

imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

I think the resource estimate for CDL was released by AVZ with a two pronged purpose.

a) A salvo to the antagonists that a fair amount of exploration work has been done to prove up 170m/t, so this "Manono lithium JV" is in breach plus its a fact file regards to ICSID arbitration.

b)

View attachment 52870

And the statement above suggests as you mentioned..........a bargaining / negotiation carrot aka MOU.

imo

The MoU as it stands doesn't include Zijin having the north otherwise there wouldn't be a need for new discussions

If that is what Simba wants (to avoid arbitration from Zijin) then we don't have a choice which is why Nigel is ready to sit down and talk about it imo

If we are going to sell some or all of our rights to the north then best to have a valuation available as a starting point for the new negotiations

 

[Scoota30]

The MoU as it stands doesn't include Zijin having the north otherwise there wouldn't be a need for new discussions

If that is what Simba wants (to avoid arbitration from Zijin) then we don't have a choice which is why Nigel is ready to sit down and talk about it imo

If we are going to sell some or all of our rights to the north then best to have a valuation available as a starting point for the new negotiations

In your opinion Carlos, what sort of $$ or negotiation are we looking at in order to sell the north?

As it stands, we hold 75% over the entire tenement. If it was split into South & North, do you think we would first buy the 15% FROR from Comineire out of good faith for the shit they've put us through, and then onsell 10-15% of the north to Z?

Not quite sure yet how i see this one playing out, clearly though as Nigel mentioned in that article that if Z are required at the table, we are open to discussions about it (As fucked as it is).

Keen to hear your most recent thoughts as you've been historically consistent with calls and outcomes. Surely if the ICSID provisional verdict comes through in our favour, we are now negotiating from a position of strength.

 

[BEISHA]

Hi Beisha
Not racist at all just my thinking , also i'm married to an asian with 3 mixed race kids and she agrees with me ,, totally sorry I offended anybody

I never suggested you were racist mate , but the comments made had racist under tones and could be construed by lurker posters reading this forum that dont know you as well as the regular posters here do , that you were indeed .........racist.

The fact that you are married to a asian, meant the comments made were even more puzzling, but i do understand that a fair bit of grog was consumed plus i suspect you are from my generation ( i am 55) whereby comments made to our immigrant friends back in the day were understood to be a
" term of endearment ".........not derogatory, so i wasnt offended.

We live in a woke society , comments made back in the day are just not acceptable now unfortunately.

Funnily enuff, i was having this same conversation to my woke teenagers over Xmas, cause comments i make from time to time towards my immigrant buddies are considered by them as .........racist.

Nothing could be further from the truth and no amount of explanation could sway the fuckers...

It is what it is.

Please continue to post mate , (i wasnt having a go at you per se), just highlighting a red flag....expressing ones opinion in these frustrating times is therapeutic for the mind, just got to temper that with the woke society that we live in.......

imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

In your opinion Carlos, what sort of $$ or negotiation are we looking at in order to sell the north?

As it stands, we hold 75% over the entire tenement. If it was split into South & North, do you think we would first buy the 15% FROR from Comineire out of good faith for the shit they've put us through, and then onsell 10-15% of the north to Z?

Not quite sure yet how i see this one playing out, clearly though as Nigel mentioned in that article that if Z are required at the table, we are open to discussions about it (As fucked as it is).

Keen to hear your most recent thoughts as you've been historically consistent with calls and outcomes. Surely if the ICSID provisional verdict comes through in our favour, we are now negotiating from a position of strength.

I think progression is the ultimate goal at this point

Personally I'd be happy with fuck all cash but we get a free carried minority holding of the north for continued exposure to that part of the asset as compensation

That along with all ICC matters being resolved immediately in our favour so we end up with 66% of the south under the old split with guarantees about sharing the power station

 

[Scoota30]

I think progression is the ultimate goal at this point

Personally I'd be happy with fuck all cash but we get a free carried minority holding of the north for continued exposure to that part of the asset as compensation

That along with all ICC matters being resolved immediately in our favour so we end up with 66% of the south under the old split with guarantees about sharing the power station

Interesting. So with the south 66% do you think that would be just by selling the 9% to CATL and then potentially having Zijin in the south aswell stealing the 15% remaining from Comineire?
Or do you think we would get that remaining 15% for the south and then sell the 24% to CATL?

I think it would be a bigger win for us if we get to take the 15% from Comineire for the south and only flick 9% to CATL as previously mentioned so that we have a larger holding in the South (Zijin are okay with just having part of the North. Why wouldn't you when you can get it for fuck all hey...)

Nigels offhand comments from the AGM were something along the lines of 60/40 for the north, however when the Gov realised they need to pay the CAPEX we could end up with 70% for the north, which i guess would leave 20% to Zijin then.....

CATL gets to have a % ownership in the south and then to have the offtake agreement for the Northern area but no Ownership stake in that.

Whatever the fuck happens, it better be one of the first things on the toothless tigers list in January to sit down and negotiate. Zijin/DRC's hands will soon be tied hopefully by ICSID. Time to progress like you say.

 

[BEISHA]

The MoU as it stands doesn't include Zijin having the north otherwise there wouldn't be a need for new discussions

If that is what Simba wants (to avoid arbitration from Zijin) then we don't have a choice which is why Nigel is ready to sit down and talk about it imo

If we are going to sell some or all of our rights to the north then best to have a valuation available as a starting point for the new negotiations

I dont think anyone really knows what the MOU consists of or with whom....

In my mind, FT would essentially want to avoid ICSID arbitration but at the same time, would still want to appease China, the hand that has fed DRC for over 30 yrs, so if Zijin is China mouth piece then i suspect they will be involved in negotiations regards to CDL

I dont think AVZ have a view of selling, more a like a JV arrangement, like a Zijin / AVZ ( 70/30 split), with AVZ having a free carry position until DTM.

imo

 

[Pokok]

I never suggested you were racist mate , but the comments made had racist under tones and could be construed by lurker posters reading this forum that dont know you as well as the regular posters here do , that you were indeed .........racist.

The fact that you are married to a asian, meant the comments made were even more puzzling, but i do understand that a fair bit of grog was consumed plus i suspect you are from my generation ( i am 55) whereby comments made to our immigrant friends back in the day were understood to be a
" term of endearment ".........not derogatory, so i wasnt offended.

We live in a woke society , comments made back in the day are just not acceptable now unfortunately.

Funnily enuff, i was having this same conversation to my woke teenagers over Xmas, cause comments i make from time to time towards my immigrant buddies are considered by them as .........racist.

Nothing could be further from the truth and no amount of explanation could sway the fuckers...

It is what it is.

Please continue to post mate , (i wasnt having a go at you per se), just highlighting a red flag....expressing ones opinion in these frustrating times is therapeutic for the mind, just got to temper that with the woke society that we live in.......

imo

65 years old and never been so frustrated , but yes I get it , i'm 6 months in Java and 6 months in oz back to oz next week so I will be off the local vodka and my head will be clearer , yes you are correct if I say one thing out of place to my 28 year old its on .

 

[Carlos Danger]

Interesting. So with the south 66% do you think that would be just by selling the 9% to CATL and then potentially having Zijin in the south aswell stealing the 15% remaining from Comineire?
Or do you think we would get that remaining 15% for the south and then sell the 24% to CATL?

I think it would be a bigger win for us if we get to take the 15% from Comineire for the south and only flick 9% to CATL as previously mentioned so that we have a larger holding in the South (Zijin are okay with just having part of the North. Why wouldn't you when you can get it for fuck all hey...)

Nigels offhand comments from the AGM were something along the lines of 60/40 for the north, however when the Gov realised they need to pay the CAPEX we could end up with 70% for the north, which i guess would leave 20% to Zijin then.....

CATL gets to have a % ownership in the south and then to have the offtake agreement for the Northern area but no Ownership stake in that.

Whatever the fuck happens, it better be one of the first things on the toothless tigers list in January to sit down and negotiate. Zijin/DRC's hands will soon be tied hopefully by ICSID. Time to progress like you say.

All ICC outcomes resolved in our favour would mean we get to enforce our FROR on the 15% from Cominiere. We then sell 24% to CATH. We need their funds to comply with the mining code. Or we could sell some or all of it to someone else but unlikely imo

If management can negotiate us still having majority of the north with Zijin in minority I would be ecstatic but I doubt it

It's complete madness that this has been allowed to drift on so long. I'd honestly rather just get rat fucked and know that going the distance at arbitration is the only possible outcome rather than this indecisive bullshit.

 

[Carlos Danger]

I dont think anyone really knows what the MOU consists of or with whom....

In my mind, FT would essentially want to avoid ICSID arbitration but at the same time, would still want to appease China, the hand that has fed DRC for over 30 yrs, so if Zijin is China mouth piece then i suspect they will be involved in negotiations regards to CDL

I dont think AVZ have a view of selling, more a like a JV arrangement, like a Zijin / AVZ ( 70/30 split), with AVZ having a free carry position until DTM.

imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

65 years old and never been so frustrated , but yes I get it , i'm 6 months in Java and 6 months in oz back to oz next week so I will be off the local vodka and my head will be clearer , yes you are correct if I say one thing out of place to my 28 year old its on .

Mate even without my AVZ shares I'm a millionaire with zero debt in my 30's and this shit frustrates me too

But you should channel that anger into being bigoted against the only group that is allowed to be made fun of by woke idiots if you don't want to get in trouble

In my experience white men from America are fair game for racist slurs

 

[Dave Evans]

Mate even without my AVZ shares I'm a millionaire with zero debt in my 30's and this shit frustrates me too

But you should channel that anger into being bigoted against the only group that is allowed to be made fun of by woke idiots if you don't want to get in trouble

In my experience white men from America are fair game for racist slurs

View attachment 52886

Here’s a racist sketch for you, now can you lend us a couple of bob

 

[Splinter]

Mate even without my AVZ shares I'm a millionaire with zero debt in my 30's and this shit frustrates me too

But you should channel that anger into being bigoted against the only group that is allowed to be made fun of by woke idiots if you don't want to get in trouble

In my experience white men from America are fair game for racist slurs

View attachment 52886

View attachment 52902

Mate even without my AVZ shares I'm a millionaire with zero debt in my 30's and this shit frustrates me too

But you should channel that anger into being bigoted against the only group that is allowed to be made fun of by woke idiots if you don't want to get in trouble

In my experience white men from America are fair game for racist slurs

View attachment 52886

 

[Carlos Danger]

View attachment 52902

View attachment 52903

Your only other 2 posts have been to insult the bod and joke about disabled porn. Jog on dickhead. Feel free to ignore me if you don't like my contributions.

 

[The Fox]

View attachment 52902

View attachment 52903

Hey fuck stick, got anything of value to say? Maybe best you crawl back under your rock ya weak ass useless kunt.

 

[Remark]

Hey fuck stick, got anything of value to say? Maybe best you crawl back under your rock ya weak ass useless kunt.

See, we're all better if we unite against a common foe. Oh, and he spelt Sphincter wrong