AVZ Discussion 2022

[SilentOne]

The enforcability is a concern though, not to mention the additional years and years that this would take.

Even after a US court in 2021 confirmed the US600m DigOil ICC judgement from 2018, opening the possibility of DRC assets in the states being seized, where are we now?

Answer: DigOil hasn't received a cent yet, nearly 7 years on. Yet the international community is still dealing with DRC anyway, big boy pants or not.

In a judgement that could possibly be five times the size of that one, or even more, what's the likelihood of a speedy resolution and an actual delivery of those funds?

How many here will have passed on by the time we get funds, if ever?

Sure the ICSID might have some better leverage than the ICC towards enforcement, and the World Bank connection is useful given the DRC's needs, but let's not kid ourselves that this would be a timely or smooth process.

I guess we could leverage a huge judgement payment into some kind of a deal, but again this would be years and years away from fruition if having to await a conclusion of all our arbitration cases.

Roon,

I tend to be a Glass Half Full type of guy - ICSID outcomes for both Tanzania and Gambia fills me with hope.

I dont believe it will drag on for years.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Samus]

The enforcability is a concern though, not to mention the additional years and years that this would take.

Even after a US court in 2021 confirmed the US600m DigOil ICC judgement from 2018, opening the possibility of DRC assets in the states being seized, where are we now?

Answer: DigOil hasn't received a cent yet, nearly 7 years on. Yet the international community is still dealing with DRC anyway, big boy pants or not.

In a judgement that could possibly be five times the size of that one, or even more, what's the likelihood of a speedy resolution and an actual delivery of those funds?

How many here will have passed on by the time we get funds, if ever?

Sure the ICSID might have some better leverage than the ICC towards enforcement, and the World Bank connection is useful given the DRC's needs, but let's not kid ourselves that this would be a timely or smooth process.

I guess we could leverage a huge judgement payment into some kind of a deal, but again this would be years and years away from fruition if having to await a conclusion of all our arbitration cases.

See what's the alternative though Roon?
It seems that they need to be forced to take a position sooner than later.
After something like two and a half years of "negotiations" the ministry of Mines are officially saying they aren't undertaking any negotiations.
So negotiations until they come to the table voluntarily seem like a total waste of time which plays into Chinese hands.
AVZ has stated time and again that we're willing to negotiate.
We need a way to pressure them hard in the right direction.

 

[oxxa23]

The enforcability is a concern though, not to mention the additional years and years that this would take.

Even after a US court in 2021 confirmed the US600m DigOil ICC judgement from 2018, opening the possibility of DRC assets in the states being seized, where are we now?

Answer: DigOil hasn't received a cent yet, nearly 7 years on. Yet the international community is still dealing with DRC anyway, big boy pants or not.

In a judgement that could possibly be five times the size of that one, or even more, what's the likelihood of a speedy resolution and an actual delivery of those funds?

How many here will have passed on by the time we get funds, if ever?

Sure the ICSID might have some better leverage than the ICC towards enforcement, and the World Bank connection is useful given the DRC's needs, but let's not kid ourselves that this would be a timely or smooth process.

I guess we could leverage a huge judgement payment into some kind of a deal, but again this would be years and years away from fruition if having to await a conclusion of all our arbitration cases.

if ever i'm having too good a day i just come on here and read your posts roon...

 

[Roon]

See what's the alternative though Roon?
It seems that they need to be forced to take a position sooner than later.
After something like two and a half years of "negotiations" the ministry of Mines are officially saying they aren't undertaking any negotiations.
So negotiations until they come to the table voluntarily seem like a total waste of time which plays into Chinese hands.
AVZ has stated time and again that we're willing to negotiate.
We need a way to pressure them hard in the right direction.

Totally agree, we obviously need to push forward with ICSID and ICC. That's the only pressure point we've got.

My only dispute is with those who say we shouldn't compromise whatsoever and should await the eventual ICC/ICSID rulings. As if that's a simple pathway invariably leading to a positive outcome in some reasonable time frame.

I say keep pressing our arbitration cases with full vigor, up to the point where some deal might be possible that gets us a PE. Then we try to leverage that into a half-decent sale price to a major thats interested in a world class lithium deposit and that has the know-how and willingness to operate in this challenging jurisdiction. Might be a short list, but the upside is so high that I imagine we could find a suitor. If that takes some trade-offs or concessions then so be it. And to have any hope of getting there before I go grey(er), we need our licensing/ownership issues to be settled one way or the other.

Otherwise sure, if nobody comes to the table, then we go full ICSID and sit in for the long haul.

 

[Winenut]

This is the original on the Mines site if anyone has a better way to translate than to type it into Google. See if it matches up with what's said in the English doc. Not sure if the above is just an English version that they released at the same time, as the stamps and signature appear to be original to each document... It does look like each one is authentically original.
View attachment 67908

Seems to be the concensus they are legit and there is both a French and an English version

Fucking completely contradicts this official statement below made a few weeks ago by the same organisation where they advise Felix they are having amicable discussions with AVZ and the case is being reviewed by experts

Fuck me..... you couldn't make this shit up

 

[cruiser51]

Totally agree, we obviously need to push forward with ICSID and ICC. That's the only pressure point we've got.

My only dispute is with those who say we shouldn't compromise whatsoever and should await the eventual ICC/ICSID rulings. As if that's a simple pathway invariably leading to a positive outcome in some reasonable time frame.

I say keep pressing our arbitration cases with full vigor, up to the point where some deal might be possible that gets us a PE. Then we try to leverage that into a half-decent sale price to a major thats interested in a world class lithium deposit and that has the know-how and willingness to operate in this challenging jurisdiction. Might be a short list, but the upside is so high that I imagine we could find a suitor. If that takes some trade-offs or concessions then so be it. And to have any hope of getting there before I go grey(er), we need our licensing/ownership issues to be settled one way or the other.

Otherwise sure, if nobody comes to the table, then we go full ICSID and sit in for the long haul.

Rio's endeavour in Serbia is not exactly smooth sailing.

Serbia: Thousands join Belgrade protest against lithium mining

Activists warn the mine could lead to the contamination of land and water and damage public health.

www.bbc.com

I don't know if they are mesmerising about Manono, or giving Manono a wide berth as being a poison pill.
They did visit the DRC MoM recently, I am curious what that was all about.

 

[wombat74]

Seems to be the concensus they are legit and there is both a French and an English version

Fucking completely contradicts this official statement below made a few weeks ago by the same organisation where they advise Felix they are having amicable discussions with AVZ and the case is being reviewed by experts


View attachment 67910

Fuck me..... you couldn't make this shit up

Yeh but they also said this.

"An expert was recruited to assess the risks that the country may incur following this dispute if it were to be resolved through legal channels."
" The defence team has recommended the continuation of the arbitration ".

In other words the asset is worth more than the penalty and Chinese snacks are delicious .

 

[oxxa23]

Seems to be the concensus they are legit and there is both a French and an English version

Fucking completely contradicts this official statement below made a few weeks ago by the same organisation where they advise Felix they are having amicable discussions with AVZ and the case is being reviewed by experts


View attachment 67910

Fuck me..... you couldn't make this shit up

I reckon i'm having dejavu.... swear i've read this 1312 times over the last two years....

"Fuck me..... you couldn't make this shit up"

 

[Mr_Tones83]

Yeh but they also said this.

"An expert was recruited to assess the risks that the country may incur following this dispute if it were to be resolved through legal channels."
" The defence team has recommended the continuation of the arbitration ".

In other words the asset is worth more than the penalty and Chinese snacks are delicious .

I didn't exactly read that way, but could be wrong... they said the defence team recommended continuing arbitration, then they said they've recruited an expert, so it doesn't sound like this 'expert' has done their work yet

 

[Doc]

I didn't exactly read that way, but could be wrong... they said the defence team recommended continuing arbitration, then they said they've recruited an expert, so it doesn't sound like this 'expert' has done their work yet

Can only imagine where this 'expert' might hail from.......

 

[wombat74]

I didn't exactly read that way, but could be wrong... they said the defence team recommended continuing arbitration, then they said they've recruited an expert, so it doesn't sound like this 'expert' has done their work yet

Yes I did edit a few words . However that was my take on it .

There were some positive take aways from AVZ's report . Enough to perhaps promote a potential successful CR . Something the Chinese/DRC became aware of and are now trying to foil. IMO

 

[cruiser51]

I didn't exactly read that way, but could be wrong... they said the defence team recommended continuing arbitration, then they said they've recruited an expert, so it doesn't sound like this 'expert' has done their work yet

If you are a lawyer, wouldn't you recommend to continue the fight?

Isn't that the same as a your car mechanic recommending don't stop with your car maintenance?

At the end, if the lawyer doesn't win he will say 'Well mate we did our best', Ka fucking ching.

It is not in the best interest of a lawyer, if you kiss and make up.
If everybody did, the legal fraternity would have to take up a newspaper round, or pull beer in the pub, they are great in the talking shit department.

 

[Mr_Tones83]

If you are a lawyer, wouldn't you recommend to continue the fight?

Isn't that the same as a your car mechanic recommending don't stop with your car maintenance?

At the end, if the lawyer doesn't win he will say 'Well mate we did our best', Ka fucking ching.

It is not in the best interest of a lawyer, if you kiss and make up.
If everybody did, the legal fraternity would have to take up a newspaper round, or pull beer in the pub, they are great in the talking shit department.

Yep, I'm not disputing that the lawyers would say to keep going. Aside from the bribe-takers, they're the main winners in this saga so far.

What I meant to highlight was the fact that the DRC MoM likely hasn't had their recruited 'expert' complete the assessment as to the potential risks of the legal cases running their course as yet. If that were to be done by a competent person then it could put extra pressure on them to come to the table and get a deal done quicker.
More than likely it'll be a Zijin shill used to keep kicking the can down the road though.

 

[cruiser51]

Yep, I'm not disputing that the lawyers would say to keep going. Aside from the bribe-takers, they're the main winners in this saga so far.

What I meant to highlight was the fact that the DRC MoM likely hasn't had their recruited 'expert' complete the assessment as to the potential risks of the legal cases running their course as yet. If that were to be done by a competent person then it could put extra pressure on them to come to the table and get a deal done quicker.
More than likely it'll be a Zijin shill used to keep kicking the can down the road though.

Don't forget that the current vice MoM, Godard Motemona Gibolum

, is the same as in last government, we probably could say the left hand of the current MoM and might not agree that the current MoM is, under instruction of FT and PM, talking with AVZ.
Who knows maybe the left hand is not talking with the right hand, or he is pissed off that he is not MoM.
Creating a bit of animosity to undermine the current MoM, could well be a game of the Chinese.

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[pow4ade]

I didn't exactly read that way, but could be wrong... they said the defence team recommended continuing arbitration, then they said they've recruited an expert, so it doesn't sound like this 'expert' has done their work yet

I interpreted MoM letter differently also, when read in full context:

From preliminary observations, it appears that the AVZ's claims, as formulated in the said project, are
disadvantageous for the Republic where the defence team has recommended the continuation of the
arbitration as long as AVZ does not diminish its ambitions.

To wit, we will not countenance any claim to CDL, it's gone. AVZ should be happy with RD, or what's left of it. Until they accept that reality we continue arbitration. End of discussion.

AIMO

 

[Winenut]

I interpreted MoM letter differently also, when read in full context:

From preliminary observations, it appears that the AVZ's claims, as formulated in the said project, are
disadvantageous for the Republic where the defence team has recommended the continuation of the
arbitration as long as AVZ does not diminish its ambitions.

To wit, we will not countenance any claim to CDL, it's gone. AVZ should be happy with RD, or what's left of it. Until they accept that reality we continue arbitration. End of discussion.

AIMO

View attachment 67930

Geez you read a fair few tea leaves into that......to wit.....

"To wit, we will not countenance any claim to CDL, it's gone. AVZ should be happy with RD, or what's left of it. Until they accept that reality we continue arbitration. End of discussion."

Not sure how you managed to extrapolate all that detail and put it into the words of the MoM?

 

[marksmann007]

View attachment 67930

Geez you read a fair few tea leaves into that......to wit.....

"To wit, we will not countenance any claim to CDL, it's gone. AVZ should be happy with RD, or what's left of it. Until they accept that reality we continue arbitration. End of discussion."

Not sure how you managed to extrapolate all that detail and put it into the words of the MoM?

 

[wombat74]

I interpreted MoM letter differently also, when read in full context:

From preliminary observations, it appears that the AVZ's claims, as formulated in the said project, are
disadvantageous for the Republic where the defence team has recommended the continuation of the
arbitration as long as AVZ does not diminish its ambitions.

To wit, we will not countenance any claim to CDL, it's gone. AVZ should be happy with RD, or what's left of it. Until they accept that reality we continue arbitration. End of discussion.

AIMO

Nothing was or is going to happen until AVZ secure funding . We are still in the stall and bleed AVZ dry phase . IMO

 

[marksmann007]

Plenty of issues for RIO‘s jadar project..
Might be better to partner up with AVZ to support & assist in our efforts in the DRC to restore our rights & mine Manono.