AVZ Discussion 2022

Flight996

Regular
Not hugely surprised by this. There's not much reason for the DRC to talk to AVZ prior to the peace deal being signed - quite the opposite in fact. And Nigel had no option but to resume the legal case in the interim.

If all goes well, shouldn't be long to wait. Reportedly, the terms for the peace deal have been agreed with it to be signed in the next week.

Following the peace deal, the DRC will have to honour the agreement to allow the USA access to minerals in return for the peace deal.

After the peace deal is signed Kobold, AVZ and the DRC should start on the paperwork for a mining licence to be granted to Kobold, with AVZ to drop the legal case and receive compensation from Kobold. (Hopefully there will also be a Capital Gains Tax waiver from the DRC as part of the deal.)

At some stage after the peace deal is signed I'd expect an announcement from AVZ that they are working on a deal with Kobold and the DRC.

That said, there is still some potential for Chinese or DRC skull-duggery. But the potential is low given the USA's involvement and Felix's desire for security via the peace deal. The Chinese will probably be happy that Zijin keeps the North. I think AVZ and Kobold have probably already agreed the broad terms and price of their part of the deal. The DRC should be happy to see Manono developed and the legal case settled.

It'll b a neat solution if it all comes off at a decent price (at least $1 AUD per share).

Re: Following the peace deal, the DRC will have to honour the agreement to allow the USA access to minerals in return for the peace deal.
After the peace deal is signed Kobold, AVZ and the DRC should start on the paperwork for a mining licence to be granted to Kobold, with AVZ to drop the legal case and receive compensation from Kobold.


My understanding is that the US-DRC minerals for security deal involves primarily the copper and cobalt mines of south DRC and neighboring Zambia, with the Lobito Corridor as the main export route for the extracted minerals.

However, the deal does not specifically mention the Manono project or lithium as core elements of either the security deal or the Lobito transport arrangements. Manono is like an afterthought, but an important and high-value afterthought nonetheless.

The risk is that the minerals for security deal can progress and evolve separately, and Manono is left as a stranded resource with only the Chinese scratching away at its wealth. In this case, nobody wins, and KoBold may seek less risky opportunities elsewhere. Let's face it, would KoBold really want to deal with those clown-hats for the next twenty years.

Cheers
F
 
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tonster66

Regular
Think about is from this angle.
The US encouraged AVZ to pause proceedings right? Why did they bother with that course of action?
US could have just said "Here, take $10B AVZ and we'll sort the cat fight out for ourselves".
But no. I believe that the mining license needs to be granted to AVZ, then a legal title transfer to occur to Kobold. If the DRC decide to grant Kobold a license in their own court system it won't be worth the paper it's written on as clearly demonstrated in the past.

The DRC can't allow USA the minerals whilst AVZ is still in dispute of legal ownership, that causes a huge array of legal implications down the track.

Anyways, I could be full of shit like Felix is, so who knows WTF is actually going on.
To be issued a mining license you need the 4 approvals then the decree issued. AVZ is the only company who has done this, so they could be the only legitimate company that could receive a license.
 
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Panther22

Regular
To be issued a mining license you need the 4 approvals then the decree issued. AVZ is the only company who has done this, so they could be the only legitimate company that could receive a license.
Yes, but DRC rarely play by the rules.
 
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Winenut

GO AVZ!!!!
To be issued a mining license you need the 4 approvals then the decree issued. AVZ is the only company who has done this, so they could be the only legitimate company that could receive a license.
Zijin got one.....I think

Well they're mining up on the north section so they must have I guess :rolleyes:
 
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Mute22

Regular
Before I let myself spiral into full-blown depression over the thought of years tied up in court battles and uncertain compensation, I’m holding out hope.

Let's wait to see how the U.S. Peace and Minerals for Security agreements play out.

That could either be the turning point we need, or we are utterly fucked.
 
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wombat74

Top 20
I also think the wording of the prior announcement regarding the non binding MOU was the clincher.
"AVZ to be fairly compensated"
This means AVZ was not even in the picture regarding any negotiations with the DRC. DRC was going to simply hand it to Kobold and it was up to Kobold to act in good faith and pay AVZ some coins on the way out.

It's fucked.. I was hopeful, but not now. Maybe some of the early tooters bloating about cents on the dollar know something.
You could speculate if AVZ had gone bust at the end of last year would Kobold now have Roche Dure ? AVZ handed Kobold a sh1t sandwich today . If the DRC are against AVZ then Kobold is out .
 
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hedrox

Regular
I don't know about this announcement....a bit of a nothing announcement. I believe there are to many moving parts in the whole story...
The silence of CATH or any Chinese players doesn't make sense at all to me. A big question is as well who will build the lithium refinery? A refinery in Manano is necessary for cheaper transportation to make it price compatible. Zijin and whoever will get hold of Roche Dur will have the same problem and a joint venture would make sense instead of building 2 expensive refineries. For sure Cath want to get in some way or other a slice of the cake. I got the feeling that CATH is somehow still on the table.There is probably much more going on, what we don't know and what Nigel can't talk about atm. Imagine how many tight lips talks about Manano the biggest Lithium deposit in the world were held or still ongoing.
I think Kobold are only flexing muscles atm, trying to get the best deal done, while other parties in the background are watching and preparing to counter offer. In the last announcement from 24th of Mai Nigel clearly stated...
Screenshot 2025-06-24 at 13.58.11.png

All discussions with Kobold were always NON BINDING....This was Nigel's choice not Kobolds....wondering why?:giggle:
 
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Hemicuda

Regular
Before I let myself spiral into full-blown depression over the thought of years tied up in court battles and uncertain compensation, I’m holding out hope.

Let's wait to see how the U.S. Peace and Minerals for Security agreements play out.

That could either be the turning point we need, or we are utterly fucked.
Yup this mornings news read like a funeral notice.
 
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Skar

Regular
If you put yourself in the position of all the parties things are progressing as they need to:

-AVZ need to pursue our legal rights, Full reinstatement of our tenement (north and south), ML and compensation for lost revenue. At the request of the US we agreed to a temp pause, we had no contact, inclusion or progress during it (our rightful dues should not be contingent on US involvement. ICC/ICSID is the right course if DRC won't engage, its why they exist).

-DRC have a lot going on, with security in the east and a massive strategic realignment, its no surprise they are ignoring AVZ until that is sorted. There is also a lot of corruption and irregularities that every politician would want to distance themself from. Once peace deal signs I think they will deal with Kobold and AVZ (which is only a small dot point of the overall minerals for security deal).

-US want the minerals and supply chain security. Kobold want to acquire Manono in the most commercially advantageous way possible. Paying 1B USD is much better for them than paying 10B USD (which is why AVZ need to hit the gas on ICC/ICSID to be in a better negotiating position if Kobold wont stump up).

-CATH, if the litigation funding is anything to go by. Are willing to sit on the sidelines watching everything unfold and will only act at the very last minute, if they need to secure their investment/interests.

TL;DR
Its possible AVZ are wasting money by pursing legal avenues they will later agree to abandon but its far worse to abandon or continue to put on hold and then need that avenue pursued.
 
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Mute22

Regular

AVZ Minerals to resume proceedings against DRC over disputed lithium deposit​

Reuters | June 23, 2025 | 5:45 pm Battery Metals Africa Lithium
Zijin Mining to explore for lithium in DRC

The Manono lithium-tin project in the DRC. (Image courtesy of AVZ Minerals.)
Australia’s AVZ Minerals said on Tuesday it will resume proceedings against the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over mining rights to the Manono lithium deposit after the parties were unable to reach a settlement on a legal dispute over the deposit.
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The unresolved issue poses a potential hurdle for California-based metals exploration firm KoBold Metals’ plans to acquire AVZ Minerals’ stake in one of the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposits.

AVZ initially held the permit to develop the Manono project, but in 2023 the DRC’s mines ministry revoked this permit on the basis that the project had not advanced quickly enough. 🤣🤣🤣

The rights were later granted to a unit of Zijin Mining, prompting AVZ to seek relief through both the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce, and the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).

The US government has been encouraging the parties to settle the dispute, which led AVZ to temporarily suspend the ICSID arbitration proceedings in late May.

AVZ, whose shares were suspended in May 2022 and delisted two years later due to the dispute, said DRC did not engage with AVZ during the suspension period and the suspension has lapsed.

The ICSID proceeding will now resume, the company said.
KoBold Metals did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comments.
(By John Biju and Aaditya Govind Rao;
 
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wombat74

Top 20
Be nice to get some feed back from Kobold . They got f--ked over big time today by their DRC chumps . Got a steaming pile of dog sh1t for their months of effort . Expect it will make the media : "KOB--LD TAKES IT UP THE ARSE IN THE DRC" ----- " KOB--LD BROWN BAGS TOO SMALL TO SEAL MANONO DEAL " --- " KOB--LD ATTEMPT TO F--K OVER AVZ MINERALS KILLS OFF MANONO ERECTION ."
 
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Mute22

Regular
Be nice to get some feed back from Kobold . They got f--ked over big time today by their DRC chumps . Got a steaming pile of dog sh1t for their months of effort . Expect it will make the media : "KOB--LD TAKES IT UP THE ARSE IN THE DRC" ----- " KOB--LD BROWN BAGS TOO SMALL TO SEAL MANONO DEAL " --- " KOB--LD ATTEMPT TO F--K OVER AVZ MINERALS KILLS OFF MANONO ERECTION ."
KoBold Metals did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comments.

CEO couldn't shut his mouth only a few days ago.
 
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Doc

Master of Quan
For the first time I saw someone in the wild reading TSE, who was the solo traveler at the Qantas first lounge this arvo?
 
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cruiser51

Top 20
You could speculate if AVZ had gone bust at the end of last year would Kobold now have Roche Dure ? AVZ handed Kobold a sh1t sandwich today . If the DRC are against AVZ then Kobold is out .
The DRC and AVZ had to show to the USA that they had good intent and were prepared to negotiate.

Also the DRC considered any delay in ICSID proceedings something they had been playing for all along, so of course they agreed and hoped AVZ would go for another extension and another and another.
It is obvious the DRC miscalculated on that point.

However with the inclusion of CKK on the 'expert team' of the DRC to advice FT, it was painfully obvious that AVZ had Buckley's chance for the DRC being willing to negotiate with AVZ.
CKK would sign his own and wife's death sentence if he would.

In my opinion the DRC did themself a disservice in showing they had no intention to negotiate with AVZ at all, after AVZ went ahead and agreed with the DRC to apply for a suspension of the proceedings to make negotiations possible in a gesture of goodwill.

Of course the ICSID will take the DRC's attitude in consideration and, imo, it is not helpful for the DRC in its case against AVZ.
Any further attempt from the DRC to delay again will highly likely return a fuck off.
Also there is no reason for ICSID to drag this out and continue with its proceedings ASAP and a speedy outcome.

The advantage for AVZ is that ICSID will give a verdict expressed in a monetary value, so Kobold knows also what the go is.

In my opinion it is not all bad, but was to be expected.

It is clear that Felix's choice of 'expert advisors' gave an early indication the way the DRC would go.
One only has to read CKK's Communique posted on 24/3 in response to the ICC ruling that Cominière had to pay AVZ €39 million in which he made it very plain, he did not recognise any AVZ claim over Manono in any shape or form, therefore 'What fine?'.

To believe that he would advice after that to negotiate with AVZ would be playing with your willy.

All IMO.
 
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Pokok

Regular
For the first time I saw someone in the wild reading TSE, who was the solo traveler at the Qantas first lounge this arvo?
Was he heading to the DRC
 
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Seaworthy

Emerged
I don't know about this announcement....a bit of a nothing announcement. I believe there are to many moving parts in the whole story...
The silence of CATH or any Chinese players doesn't make sense at all to me. A big question is as well who will build the lithium refinery? A refinery in Manano is necessary for cheaper transportation to make it price compatible. Zijin and whoever will get hold of Roche Dur will have the same problem and a joint venture would make sense instead of building 2 expensive refineries. For sure Cath want to get in some way or other a slice of the cake. I got the feeling that CATH is somehow still on the table.There is probably much more going on, what we don't know and what Nigel can't talk about atm. Imagine how many tight lips talks about Manano the biggest Lithium deposit in the world were held or still ongoing.
I think Kobold are only flexing muscles atm, trying to get the best deal done, while other parties in the background are watching and preparing to counter offer. In the last announcement from 24th of Mai Nigel clearly stated...
View attachment 87542
All discussions with Kobold were always NON BINDING....This was Nigel's choice not Kobolds....wondering why?:giggle:
Spot on ... the timing of the ICSID hearing ended up being a little too early for the minerals deal after it was pushed out, I think this whole thing will look a lot different in a week or two after the DRC have their security deal. DRC will need to get a whole lot more flexible after that. AVZ were either going to suspend ICSID again or proceed, I'm happy Nige chose to move forward, it will strengthen AVZ's position. I think the AVZ/Kobold transaction will be complete before a decision comes out of ICSID (and USA are the key) but those sitting in the ICSID room will have a pretty good idea of who is winning the battle. The comment from today's announcement '... DRC did not engage with AVZ during the period of temporary suspension and that suspension has now lapsed' will be used by AVZ to support the argument that DRC should wear AVZ's legal costs. And as you point out @hedrox , where is Cath sitting amongst all of this? We're at the pointy end folks, chin up.
 
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Pokok

Regular
I'm back from my swim , in Bali and before you guys say it, its a cheap flight Java and the youngest want to learn surfing , but all I could think of while sitting in a bean bag and being asked to buy everything on earth was Babi Guling , spit roast those pigs
 
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Samus

Top 20
One thing I'm not understanding is the relationship between the details of this announcement and Felix' need to engage the US for protection and support against the rebels. He was evidently pleading to engage with the US for the purposes of signing the peace agreement which as we know has to have something in it for the US (i.e. the critical minerals aspect) - otherwise what is the point of the deal from the US perspective...

Once the deal is signed, I find it difficult to imagine that reneging or deviation from the US's strategy (which the DRC must have been agreed with to even make it to the point of signing) would be allowed to let slip by the US without consequence. There's still the chance that as mentioned above, the DRC are still engaging but with Kobold instead of AVZ.

On the other hand, the DRC government have proven themselves to be fools without logic or reason so maybe they plainly do not give a crap about US consequences.

Don't forget there are a lot of other mineral resources on offer in the DRC, the politics of this might still get in the way.
We can only hope that the US force DRC's hand to the annoyance of the CCP Cu*ts in regard with this case in particular, maybe somebody in the Trump administration makes this a sticking point.
There seems to be some indication that this might be the case moving forward but no guarantees and this latest announcement isn't too promising.
Funding is again our issue now, we won't have the funds to pursue this for the next 5-10 years. Likely not even one more year if CATH now pulls funding.
 
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Retrobyte

Hates a beer
I'm back from my swim , in Bali and before you guys say it, its a cheap flight Java and the youngest want to learn surfing , but all I could think of while sitting in a bean bag and being asked to buy everything on earth was Babi Guling , spit roast those pigs

Were there any ayam selling their wares ?
 
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Pokok

Regular
We should start a new count up not down so we can count the days of disappointment
Disappoint The Goldbergs GIF by ABC Network
:):)
 
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