Not hugely surprised by this. There's not much reason for the DRC to talk to AVZ prior to the peace deal being signed - quite the opposite in fact. And Nigel had no option but to resume the legal case in the interim.
If all goes well, shouldn't be long to wait. Reportedly, the terms for the peace deal have been agreed with it to be signed in the next week.
Following the peace deal, the DRC will have to honour the agreement to allow the USA access to minerals in return for the peace deal.
After the peace deal is signed Kobold, AVZ and the DRC should start on the paperwork for a mining licence to be granted to Kobold, with AVZ to drop the legal case and receive compensation from Kobold. (Hopefully there will also be a Capital Gains Tax waiver from the DRC as part of the deal.)
At some stage after the peace deal is signed I'd expect an announcement from AVZ that they are working on a deal with Kobold and the DRC.
That said, there is still some potential for Chinese or DRC skull-duggery. But the potential is low given the USA's involvement and Felix's desire for security via the peace deal. The Chinese will probably be happy that Zijin keeps the North. I think AVZ and Kobold have probably already agreed the broad terms and price of their part of the deal. The DRC should be happy to see Manono developed and the legal case settled.
It'll b a neat solution if it all comes off at a decent price (at least $1 AUD per share).
Re: Following the peace deal, the DRC will have to honour the agreement to allow the USA access to minerals in return for the peace deal.
After the peace deal is signed Kobold, AVZ and the DRC should start on the paperwork for a mining licence to be granted to Kobold, with AVZ to drop the legal case and receive compensation from Kobold.
My understanding is that the US-DRC minerals for security deal involves primarily the copper and cobalt mines of south DRC and neighboring Zambia, with the Lobito Corridor as the main export route for the extracted minerals.
However, the deal does not specifically mention the Manono project or lithium as core elements of either the security deal or the Lobito transport arrangements. Manono is like an afterthought, but an important and high-value afterthought nonetheless.
The risk is that the minerals for security deal can progress and evolve separately, and Manono is left as a stranded resource with only the Chinese scratching away at its wealth. In this case, nobody wins, and KoBold may seek less risky opportunities elsewhere. Let's face it, would KoBold really want to deal with those clown-hats for the next twenty years.
Cheers
F