AVZ Discussion 2022

[Carlos Danger]

Interesting thoughts Carlos.

If memory serves me well ( happy to be corrected ), initially , in the early days, YIBIN offered $80 - 100m for 20% of AVZ, not AVZ / DATHCOM, which in turn got rejected by the FIRB.

For a " hostile take over" of AVZ , with FIRB bypassed, ZIJIN needs to gain control of AVZ DATHCOM......hence the two ICC arbitration cases in play with ZIJIN / DATHOMIR.............a collective 30% in play there.

Personally, ZIJIN / DATHOMIR dont have a hope in winning those 2 cases, given the available evidence, but if for some reason the statement " spurious in nature and with no material effect " doesnt hold up, then that would put a cat amongst the pigeons......which would then put the CATH JV under spot light.

What gets me is, CHINA as a whole ( SHENZEN , GANGFENG, CATH etc ) have a full uptake of supply, so why halt / delay the process of construction / production of RD ?

Well, IMO, its pretty clear, they want full control of MANONO so they can control the price of lithium world wide PLUS have ample supply.

Having a look at the AVZ top 20 register, a sobering thought is YIBIN / HUAYOU / BELLAMEL have a shit load of voting power..........I wonder what it would take to make BNP PARIBAS / CITICORP to look the other way..........

Add into the mix DRC govt debt to China via BELT & ROAD and China involvement in DRC as a whole for 30+ yrs, i have no doubt the screws are being applied

NIGEL can say what he wants, but in my mind, this extended suspension shit show is all about CONTROL..........by hook or by crook.

2023 is going to be pressure cooker scenario.

Lets hope good over comes evil !


imo

The original deal was for 12%. Nigel said at the AGM that FIRB weren't happy with them having over 10% and crucially a seat on the board. The deal was amended to 9% and no seat on the board when they got that feedback from the Australian government.

As for Zijin owning AVZ or AVZ / Dathcom my thought process is if they buy out AVZ they automatically control all assets of AVZ including 75% of Dathcom. They can just run AVZ as a private subsidiary if need be if there are issues with the ownership name for getting the licence under the DRC mining code. Not that anyone at CAMI cares about the rules anyway.

I originally wrote another section to my post that included my concerns about some of our top 20 joining in with Zijin. I left a little clue when I said 'get others to vote with them'. The rivalry between Zijin and CATL is legit. I'm sure both companies would prefer the other to not be involved. But I'm sure they would also toe the party line if Beijing cracked the whip. Control is the ultimate goal.

 

[BEISHA]

The original deal was for 12%. Nigel said at the AGM that FIRB weren't happy with them having over 10% and crucially a seat on the board. The deal was amended to 9% and no seat on the board when they got that feedback from the Australian government.

View attachment 25322

As for Zijin owning AVZ or AVZ / Dathcom my thought process is if they buy out AVZ they automatically control all assets of AVZ including 75% of Dathcom. They can just run AVZ as a private subsidiary if need be if there are issues with the ownership name for getting the licence under the DRC mining code. Not that anyone at CAMI cares about the rules anyway.

I originally wrote another section to my post that included my concerns about some of our top 20 joining in with Zijin. I left a little clue when I said 'get others to vote with them'. The rivalry between Zijin and CATL is legit. I'm sure both companies would prefer the other to not be involved. But I'm sure they would also toe the party line if Beijing cracked the whip. Control is the ultimate goal.

Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....

However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.

But seriously , how can that really work ?

AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.

I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............

It never happened, now here we are.

That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......

Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.

Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.


Pull your finger out FT before its too late.

2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!

imo

 

[Onthefm]

Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....

However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.

But seriously , how can that really work ?

AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.

I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............

It never happened, now here we are.

That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......

Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.

Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.


Pull your finger out FT before its too late.

2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!


View attachment 25332


imo

The nige said that the last cr was predominantly going to be taken up by us,euro and Australian investors. What a crop of shit. Can anyone tell me that the nige didn't understand the share holdings of China in this company? Of cause he did. So what happens now? Fuck knows but the Chinese will definitely be having a huge say in it. One way or another.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Well there you go, my memory didnt serve me well at all with the Yibin offer, looking at that deal , compared with the CATH offer ( 24% for 240m ), it was a complete and utter joke wasnt it ?.....

However, i will stand by my understanding that ZIJIN cant buy out ASX listed AVZ, FIRB wont allow, but they can try their luck via collaboration with CATH, GANGFENG, SHENZEN, DATHOMIR / COMINIERE to control the percentage of DATHCOM, thus gaining control of MANONO........bypassing the FIRB in the process.

But seriously , how can that really work ?

AVZ / DATHCOM received TECHNICAL APPROVAL with the original DFS, AVZ are the one that has poured all the dollars to prove up the asset / s they are the main operator, which means they require 51% control of Dathcom as per DRC law to operate RD.

I have said this before many times, especially at good ole HC when AVZ threads ruled..........NIGEL needed diversity when it came to offtakes, he needed a US / European interest ( possibly both ) to avoid a potential collusion of chinese entities under the instruction of President Xi to gain control of MANONO............

It never happened, now here we are.

That being said and you mentioned it in your original post......... NIGEL did say in the recent AGM that he half expected the chinese to have a crack at under handed tactics to gain control of MANONO...........but he never imagined that corrupt officials of DRC govt would be complicit as well......

Well to be fair to NIGEL, no one expected that scenario either, given that FT mantra when taking power in 2019, was to eliminate corruption and provide his people a better life.

Well here we are in late 2022 , RD should of been 1/3 into construction, hundreds of local workers should have been employed, AVZ SP should of been around $1.50.........instead, we are farking stuck in extension suspension, with corruption still full steam ahead, with multiple scum trying to steal what aint theirs and the locals still poor as shit and bewildered.


Pull your finger out FT before its too late.

2023 has to be ACTION...........not TALK !!


View attachment 25332


imo

The only way now that anyone can legally control Manono is if they buy out AVZ

Think back to the original Boatman / AFR / Chinese news articles about Zijin's claims that they 'bought' the 15% of Dathcom from Cominiere. The sheer obnoxious gloating that no one would have over 50% and control the project. Little Tommy was wetting himself with excitement so much he forgot to tell his readers that the CATL deal could be amended.

Although at that stage all the market had been told was that CATL had waived all conditions (including getting the mining licence). So nice of them to just want to get the deal done at 24%. Luckily someone was thinking outside the box. Nigel first mentioned the possibility that CATL were willing to accept 9% a few weeks after I suggested it in this forum.

If Zijin (or any other overseas entity) buys out AVZ and takes it private then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB to consider because the deposit isn't in Australia imo. Hopefully we never need to find out.

The other thing to consider about FIRB's opposition to Yibin Tianyi is that decision was made at the height of the trade war tensions between Australia and China caused by the fallout from ScoMo asking for an independent inquiry into the Wuhan Lab. I doubt Chalmers would have quite the same chip on his shoulder that Frydenberg had.

Our saving grace may be tax considerations. But considering AVZ International (which technically owns the 75% of Dathcom so running Dathcom through a private subsidiary is allowed under DRC law imo) is headquartered in Singapore (which has a corporate tax rate of 17% vs Australia's 30%) I'd say AVZ's current plan is to run all profits through there first.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this but the barbarians are at the gate imo

 

[Frank]

Well said Jason!

Haven't posted in the last few weeks as have been travelling throughout Japan. Wow what a country!

Its been a tough last eight months, but I definitely feel we are getting there. I still have total confidence in Nigel and the BoD's and I really believe without Nigel fighting our fight, we would be totally f..ked!

Also like Jase, I to would like to thank all the posters for their 'mostly' informative posts and would also like to wish everyone and their families a safe & Merry Christmas.

We will get there!!!

Cheers,
Nells xx

Speaking of "There"

Found this over there, thought I'd share it here, as it seems rather apt here, Not there imo

Food for thought for Shits & Giggles on the long and winding road to Manono

Cheers

Frank

 

[JAG]

 

[JAG]

 

[JAG]

 

[JAG]

 

[JAG]

 

[Charbella]

View attachment 25365

Hi Jag, what are we looking for here? Is this a scam or not? What is the purpose of this?

 

[JAG]

 

[Bin59]

Hi Jag, what are we looking for here? Is this a scam or not? What is the purpose of this?

Hope everyone had a great Christmas - like a few here I’ve enjoyed a break from the social sites leading up to Christmas .

Anyhow, the three companies maybe shown to be connected - Omni Bridgeway collaborate with Goldenstein law firm (who Deeland may have copied their text from)

Kooperationen - Kanzlei Goldenstein

www.goldenstein-kanzlei.de

 

[Bin59]

Hope everyone had a great Christmas - like a few here I’ve enjoyed a break from the social sites leading up to Christmas .

Anyhow, the three companies maybe shown to be connected - Omni Bridgeway collaborate with Goldenstein law firm (who Deeland may have copied their text from)

View attachment 25372

Kooperationen - Kanzlei Goldenstein

www.goldenstein-kanzlei.de

View attachment 25370

Interesting to find out more about the Deeland / Goldenstein connection (collaboration?)

 

[BEISHA]

The only way now that anyone can legally control Manono is if they buy out AVZ

Think back to the original Boatman / AFR / Chinese news articles about Zijin's claims that they 'bought' the 15% of Dathcom from Cominiere. The sheer obnoxious gloating that no one would have over 50% and control the project. Little Tommy was wetting himself with excitement so much he forgot to tell his readers that the CATL deal could be amended.

Although at that stage all the market had been told was that CATL had waived all conditions (including getting the mining licence). So nice of them to just want to get the deal done at 24%. Luckily someone was thinking outside the box. Nigel first mentioned the possibility that CATL were willing to accept 9% a few weeks after I suggested it in this forum.

View attachment 25351

If Zijin (or any other overseas entity) buys out AVZ and takes it private then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB to consider because the deposit isn't in Australia imo. Hopefully we never need to find out.

The other thing to consider about FIRB's opposition to Yibin Tianyi is that decision was made at the height of the trade war tensions between Australia and China caused by the fallout from ScoMo asking for an independent inquiry into the Wuhan Lab. I doubt Chalmers would have quite the same chip on his shoulder that Frydenberg had.

Our saving grace may be tax considerations. But considering AVZ International (which technically owns the 75% of Dathcom so running Dathcom through a private subsidiary is allowed under DRC law imo) is headquartered in Singapore (which has a corporate tax rate of 17% vs Australia's 30%) I'd say AVZ's current plan is to run all profits through there first.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this but the barbarians are at the gate imo

View attachment 25353

Hi Carlos

Did i hear right that you have a law back ground.........or was it someone else ?...


" If Zijin ( or any other overseas entity ) buys AVZ and takes it private, then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB as the deposit is outside of Australia "

So run me thru how that scenario could play out......

Is it a matter of waiting on the side lines for AVZ to be drained of finances and be delisted from the ASX , then come in and swoop ?

Or are there other avenues of attack ?

Personally i am having a hard time equating that scenario, not only would it be the death knell of international investment for DRC (outside of china) , but it would also be the end of the political career of FT too.

Then i would imagine there would be a mass sign up to DEELAND ( if such a coy exists ) and sue the fuck out of the AVZ bod. ......

Lets just hope that the recent war drums favouring AVZ cause , plus FT promising to use the IGF report and other NGOs advice to quell corruption .........plays out.....

Regards to FIRBs decision on YIBIN, yes that played out in the heat of COVID and trade war tension ( scomo / frydenberg ), but i doubt the stance will change with ALBANESE / CHALMERS in the fold based on the links below........agree ?

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals | U.S. Department of the Interior

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals

www.doi.gov

https://www.state.gov/minerals-security-partnership/

Lithium is a critical mineral and AVZ / DATHCOM has 1/3 of the worlds supply

As we all know , that massive AVZ bubble doesnt include CDT or the updated drill for RD......

Maybe this is the reason the US are showing alot of interest in DRC and no doubt, MANONO....


So in closing, i just cant see how your scenario can play out........AVZ is waaay too valuable to go private and land in Chinas lap...............every avenue must be taken to prevent that from happening or the world will be held to ransom.


imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

Hi Carlos

Did i hear right that you have a law back ground.........or was it someone else ?...


" If Zijin ( or any other overseas entity ) buys AVZ and takes it private, then there is no longer a direct concern for FIRB as the deposit is outside of Australia "

So run me thru how that scenario could play out......

Is it a matter of waiting on the side lines for AVZ to be drained of finances and be delisted from the ASX , then come in and swoop ?

Or are there other avenues of attack ?

Personally i am having a hard time equating that scenario, not only would it be the death knell of international investment for DRC (outside of china) , but it would also be the end of the political career of FT too.

Then i would imagine there would be a mass sign up to DEELAND ( if such a coy exists ) and sue the fuck out of the AVZ bod. ......

Lets just hope that the recent war drums favouring AVZ cause , plus FT promising to use the IGF report and other NGOs advice to quell corruption .........plays out.....

Regards to FIRBs decision on YIBIN, yes that played out in the heat of COVID and trade war tension ( scomo / frydenberg ), but i doubt the stance will change with ALBANESE / CHALMERS in the fold based on the links below........agree ?

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals | U.S. Department of the Interior

The United States and Australia Formalize Partnership on Critical Minerals

www.doi.gov

https://www.state.gov/minerals-security-partnership/

Lithium is a critical mineral and AVZ / DATHCOM has 1/3 of the worlds supply

View attachment 25389

As we all know , that massive AVZ bubble doesnt include CDT or the updated drill for RD......

Maybe this is the reason the US are showing alot of interest in DRC and no doubt, MANONO....


So in closing, i just cant see how your scenario can play out........AVZ is waaay too valuable to go private and land in Chinas lap...............every avenue must be taken to prevent that from happening or the world will be held to ransom.


imo

Nah I don't have a law background. I did a few law units at uni so I know a little bit. My theory is that if any company wants to control Manono they must now buy AVZ. It would happen the same way if it was Zijin, Rio Tinto or Tesla. The obvious difference is that if the entity that buys AVZ is based outside of Australia they will need to go through FIRB.

To succeed in acquiring AVZ any potential buyer would need to make an offer that is either acceptable to the board (which would be announced as a friendly takeover and voted on by shareholders) or bypass the board by buying up over 50% of shares (or vote with existing holders) and use a proxy vote to force an EGM to spill the board in a hostile takeover and replace them with a board supported by the majority of shareholders that want to sell. The offer would still then need to be voted on by all shareholders but those wanting to sell would obviously have the numbers.

The big question is if a potential buyer of AVZ is a Chinese company will FIRB allow it. Especially given they didn't want Yibin Tianyi having a seat on the board. The main thing FIRB were upset about was a Chinese government backed company having a vote in the ongoing operations of an ASX listed company. If Zijin hypothetically get enough shares and buy out AVZ they would take it off the ASX and make the company private (which is what Deeland are claiming they want to do).

The simplest way I see to get around FIRB would be for them to transfer AVZ International from AVZ to Zijin. Then wind up AVZ all together. That way they would be left with a parent company based in China with a subsidiary based in Singapore that holds 75% of a joint venture based in the DRC. And crucially no Chinese company having a board seat in an ongoing ASX listed company. At that point I don't see any direct concern about 'Australia's national interest' for FIRB to consider. But I could be wrong as there are other considerations like taxation and possibly strategic concerns.

Maybe I'm jumping at shadows here but if I was Zijin this is exactly what I would do and the arguments I would be using to get around FIRB. I'd also be launching a disinformation campaign about ownership and trying to get shareholders to turn on the board by initiating a class action against them. Zijin have put a noose around the projects neck and will offer frustrated shareholders a quick way out at a price everyone will be in the green for. The longer we wait to trade again the more shareholders will be tempted to sell imo

Here's a decent guide to hostile takeovers in Australia:

A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid. - Insight | MinterEllison

A takeover bid can be characterised as either 'hostile' or 'friendly', depending on whether the Bidder has the recommendation of the Target Board that target shareholders should accept the bid.

www.minterellison.com

 

[JAG]

Anyway, happy day after Boxing Day and day before my birthday

 

[Dom1974]

If DRC Govt take Manono away from AVZ (unlikely scenario), I reckon AVZ would take the Govt to ICC and tie up the resource for years, so nobody gets it. I’m assuming that the resource in question cannot be touched whilst case under international arbitration. A last FU by AVZ.

 

[Frank]

MMCS lost their application through the government and have taken Cominiere to ICC until may 22, in this time AVZ have drilled a lot and made a few changes in the area. So I’m not sure that it’s true with the not be touched scenario and I‘m not sure if it’s possible to take a complete government to ICC, but i questioned this to myself in the past. Even when AVZ would claim for compensation against the government and win this, the drc would not have enough money to pay. So I hope the DRC is clever enough to see that AVZ could have a big leverage in the worst case scenario.

But when this would be a possibility I don’t think/hope AVZ had stated on the 17th October that they are 100% confident of getting a collaboration agreement and a manono sez?

Some might call it a complete Clusterfuck, others may say it's a

Shemozzle

noun: shemozzle;

A state of chaos and confusion; a muddle.

A confused situation or affair

A mess, muddle. slang : quarrel, row.

A problem that really isn't necessary, or that could easily be fixed, but usually isn't.

 

[Longunvest]

https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/running-discussion-on-sp.4111732/page-75067