AVZ Discussion 2022

[Remark]

*Someone buy this Bloke a Beer, an Easter Egg and a Bunny, plus a Hot Cross Bun for his tummy for all the hard work on Twitter

Love your work JAG - much appreciated

Cheers

Frank & Bugs Bunny


View attachment 33591

All that liking & retweeting is making me thirsty - nice work there @JAG !

 

[MoneyBags1348]

Mate, I think that AVZ can expect nothing from the USA in the near term.
Despite a couple of high-level meetings in mid-2022 and early 2023, the USA has committed nothing to the DRC due to the DRC's endemic corruption. As US Sec of State Blinken said in mid-2022: US investment will come when corruption ends. That pretty much sums up where the USA stands on investing in the DRC.
Europe, Japan and Korea remain unconvinced about investing in the DRC, despite some initial interest, particularly from Panasonic and LG.
The neo-colonist Chinese, however remain committed to the DRC...committed to keeping the DRC impoverished, and exploiting and stealing everything they can lay their grubby hands on.

Unfortunately, at this stage of the game there are no white knights for AVZ.

Nonetheless, I remain positive that prior to the ICC mediations in mid-April, AVZ can negotiate and agree an outcome that all stakeholders can live with.

Cheers
F

Yes I have to agree Flight, all very sad and just makes me want to post what I think about the corruption in the DRC and how high up it goes. The last thing that pissed me off was Nicolas Kazadi's failure to acknowledge AVZ and his insinuation that the DRC wants more from its deals, when we know the DRC state owns Cominiere. I'm just going to post my usual again below:

DRC MINING WEEK
LUBUMBASHI JUNE 14-16 2023
ORGANISED BY THE VUKA GROUP - SPONSORED BY ZIGIN MINING
​

AVZ Minerals denied Mining License in the Democratic Republic Of Congo after DRC State owned Mining Company (Cominiere) illegally sells $150million worth of shares in Dathcom Mining to Chinese State owned Zigin Mining for $30million.


Over the last 6 years in the DRC AVZ Minerals has carried out
- Soil Sampling
- Mapping
- Consulting
- Drilling
- Metallurgical Testing
- A FEED Study

Securing a renewable 25-year lease on an Industrial Site
- For logistics activities related to an intermodal staging station
- Responsible for the commercial and operational management logistics
- Including road haulage, rail and port services and infrastructure maintenance
- Rehabilitation of the road from Manono

An Environmental Study and Impact Assessment Reports including
- 7 ESIA's and Groundwater Management

A 160-page Definitive Feasibility Study
- Received DFS Technical Approval

A SEZ Agreement
Tendering for Mining Infrastructure
Presenting at the Battery Minerals Conference
Legally Obtaining and Paying for an Increased Share of Dathcom
Legally Fulfilling all Requirements to Obtain the Mining License
Receiving the Ministerial Decree to Award the Mining License
Spending millions of dollars and Supporting the Local Community

Proving Financial Capability including
- Raising Capital
- Negotiating Funding with Pan African DFI’s
- Arranging funding and Offtake Agreements with CATH
- Obtaining Several Offtake Agreements for both Lithium and Tin

Producing an 85-page Sustainability Report committed to
- Environmental and Social Governance (ESG)
- Socio - economic benefits
- Preserving environmental values
- Providing a transparent and ethical supply chain
- Ending poverty
- Improving health and education
- Reducing inequality
- Contributing to economic growth
- Minimising greenhouse gas emissions
- Preserving biodiversity
- Restoring the Mpiana Mwanga Power Plant
- Supplying energy to local communities
- Making a positive contribution to the lives of people in the region
- Including direct and indirect employment opportunities
- Leaving a positive legacy for future generations
- Maintaining a strong sense of loyalty

 

[obe wan]

Highly unlikely that AVZ would burn through $240 million within months without the mining licence. If the mining licence is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway.

I am well aware of the percentages.

The Minister of Portfolio has always been against AVZ. Now the Minister of Mines has cancelled the decrees for the mining licence due to lack of cooperation. What percentage will AVZ control after Cominiere continue refusing to cooperate and the DRC Government strip the project? The answer is 0%.

As I said, I would be tempted to take the risk with the information that I have. AVZ seemed to have been caught off guard by the cancelling of the decrees. No one at a high level in the DRC Government seems to be willing to meet with AVZ. At least with the $240 million invested the Chinese would have some skin in the game.

ok, but you said 'we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million'

fact is that this $240m is for project development and not for AVZ operations or legal funds; the funds are for mining infrastructure , long lead time purchase agreements etc .. not sure CATH would be totally fine AVZ sitting back without a ML, using the cash for other purposes outside its actual intent.

As you say, 'If the mining license is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway' - yes and CATH probably thought that there was little risk considering AVZ had their technical applications ticked off...but obviously something changed which put the skids under that and the reins were pulled.

The risk aversion dial is a personal thing, dependent on how a win or lose effects ones or the company's (and its shareholders) financial situation.

i reckon this is one area which OMNI would have delved into if things went tits up

 

[Juba1845]

ok, but you said 'we would be well financed to continue operations and defend these challenges for years with the $240 million'

fact is that this $240m is for project development and not for AVZ operations or legal funds; the funds are for mining infrastructure , long lead time purchase agreements etc .. not sure CATH would be totally fine AVZ sitting back without a ML, using the cash for other purposes outside its actual intent.

As you say, 'If the mining license is granted then the issues are likely substantially resolved anyway' - yes and CATH probably thought that there was little risk considering AVZ had their technical applications ticked off...but obviously something changed which put the skids under that and the reins were pulled.

The risk aversion dial is a personal thing, dependent on how a win or lose effects ones or the company's (and its shareholders) financial situation.

i reckon this is one area which OMNI would have delved into if things went tits up

Does the $20 million cancellation fee still apply ?

 

[Charbella]

Mate, I think that AVZ can expect nothing from the USA in the near term.
Despite a couple of high-level meetings in mid-2022 and early 2023, the USA has committed nothing to the DRC due to the DRC's endemic corruption. As US Sec of State Blinken said in mid-2022: US investment will come when corruption ends. That pretty much sums up where the USA stands on investing in the DRC.
Europe, Japan and Korea remain unconvinced about investing in the DRC, despite some initial interest, particularly from Panasonic and LG.
The neo-colonist Chinese, however remain committed to the DRC...committed to keeping the DRC impoverished, and exploiting and stealing everything they can lay their grubby hands on.

Unfortunately, at this stage of the game there are no white knights for AVZ.

Nonetheless, I remain positive that prior to the ICC mediations in mid-April, AVZ can negotiate and agree an outcome that all stakeholders can live with.

Cheers
F

Any chance we are working on reducing the CATH TIA down to 9%, until ICC is sorted. Seems like a wise move before mining license is issued.

 

[Flight996]

Any chance we are working on reducing the CATH TIA down to 9%, until ICC is sorted. Seems like a wise move before mining license is issued.

Honestly, I don't know shit about the in-camera negotiations currently being undertaken.

However, I think everything is on the table because of the complexity, uncertainty and number of stakeholders. There are many many moving parts to these negotiations. Herding cats comes to mind.

Management has previously acknowledged that CATH (read CATL) is more concerned with supply security than equity ownership. In this context, CATH's future percentage will undoubtedly be one of many negotiating points, particularly since it potentially frees up 15% of Dathcom for potential allocation to Comeneire and maybe Zijin if that's what it takes to avoid a complete disaster.

Edited @ 15:40

Cheers
F

 

[Xerof]

FMD, I'm sorry I threw an ear worm into the ether over whats happening or not, with CATH

Self-flagellation, 10 hail marys, and a grater wank should be enough penance

 

[MoneyBags1348]

FMD, I'm sorry I threw an ear worm into the ether over whats happening with CATH

Self-flagellation, 10 hail marys, and a grater wank should be enough penance

We aren’t screwed, some of us never give up

 

[Xerof]

An idea for the campaign - for each of Jags positive AVZ tweets (which are sourced from AVZ) a contra negative Zijin tweet on the same theme (which have been highlighted by the Congolese themselves) could immediately follow. Once there are a handful of these, rinse and repeat daily

Amen, and great work @JAG

Kunts
Sorry, regression to arsehole momentarily

 

[Coulomb]

An idea for the campaign - for each of Jags positive AVZ tweets (which are sourced from AVZ) a contra negative Zijin tweet on the same theme (which have been highlighted by the Congolese themselves) could immediately follow. Once there are a handful of these, rinse and repeat daily

I get a natural shot of dopamine for every positive AVZ tweet I engage with. It's the best thing I get to see on the internet.

 

[Doc]

Just my musings but a condition of the ML being granted is dependent on satisfying certain criteria. One being able to prove you can finance the build. We lose CATH we lose the ability to say we have 240m incoming for the build ( and thats a big chunk of it ) .
The detractors will jump all over this and push for AVZ to lose the tenement on these grounds ( as well as all the other crap they spruiking ) .
More Chinese shenanigans at play?

 

[wombat74]

Just my musings but a condition of the ML being granted is dependent on satisfying certain criteria. One being able to prove you can finance the build. We lose CATH we lose the ability to say we have 240m incoming for the build ( and thats a big chunk of it ) .
The detractors will jump all over this and push for AVZ to lose the tenement on these grounds ( as well as all the other crap they spruiking ) .
More Chinese shenanigans at play?

Why would CATH pull out? Makes zero sense . If AVZ get over the line they get the deal of the century . If AVZ goes arse end Charlie all bets are off anyway . I reckon we in are in for a big announcement in the coming days . This sh1t show is finally coming to an end . There will be no ICC . IMO

 

[MoneyBags1348]

An idea for the campaign - for each of Jags positive AVZ tweets (which are sourced from AVZ) a contra negative Zijin tweet on the same theme (which have been highlighted by the Congolese themselves) could immediately follow. Once there are a handful of these, rinse and repeat daily

Amen, and great work @JAG

Kunts
Sorry, regression to arsehole momentarily

What do you think of throwing in some comments about why BHP and FMG (two of the biggest miners in the world) have explored the idea of investing in the DRC but have held off due to the corruption.

BHP pulled out of investing in the Kamoa Kakula copper mine and Zigin bought in

Ironically for me is that I sold my BHP back at $33 so I could put more into AVZ

 

[obe wan]

Does the $20 million cancellation fee still apply ?

No ; both companies would need to agree to sign up again for another extension of fantasia ; the $20m cancellation would only apply if one of them decided to pull the pin during the extension period .

 

[Flight996]

Why would CATH pull out? Makes zero sense . If AVZ get over the line they get the deal of the century . If AVZ goes arse end Charlie all debts are off anyway . I reckon we in are in for a big announcement in the coming days . This sh1t show is finally coming to an end . There will be no ICC . IMO

I think there will be an ICC hearing.
The purpose of these hearings is to provide the venue and resources for stakeholders to formalise their previously negotiated agreement, and then rubber stamp it with the imprimatur of the ICC.

In the absence of a formal ICC hearing, stakeholders risk backsliding or wanting certain parts revisited and renegotiated (a Chinese strategy).

Cheers
F

 

[Doc]

Why would CATH pull out? Makes zero sense . If AVZ get over the line they get the deal of the century . If AVZ goes arse end Charlie all debts are off anyway . I reckon we in are in for a big announcement in the coming days . This sh1t show is finally coming to an end . There will be no ICC . IMO

Dont forget its China. The big boys tell CATH to back out leaving a huge hole and hoping to drop AVZ in it then thats what they'll do.
You go against the machine in China, you go missing. Permanently

 

[Stockinvesting]

TO incoming. IMO.

 

[MoneyBags1348]

I’ve been on and off here all day so another password change and forget seems imminent

We have pretty well left the DRC ministers alone for a while now and focused on the Chinese and corrupt Cominiere official, Celestin Kibeya and still no sign of support from Felix’s government

I hope @Spikerama @JAG @TDITD and other bird watchers have got something planned…. I noticed der goose posting again under one of his aliases today

Anyway, sick of reading my own posts, no one here’s got any jokes so you can all get fucked

 

[Onthefm]

AVZ needs to retain 51% majority JV control….so they won’t agree to finalise the 24% to CATH until they have full and final court decision on 75% ownership. As it stands 60% is undisputed so max they would agree to sell to CATH until highest court confirms the 75% is a sale of 9% to CATH. And we are told CATH are good with that as their main requirement is guaranteed Offtake. My opinion is if that’s the case do a Offtake Prepayment Agreement and take the ownership out of the transaction and proceed with guaranteed funding based on Offtake.

TO incoming. IMO.

Christ I hope it is. this situation with no info from the company is agonising.

 

[Bin59]

.

TO incoming. IMO.

If a TO was on the cards I think FMG or Albermarle are in the running as they’re both wanting to add lithium assets. If not them and it was to be a Chinese entity, my guess would be CATL who are known to be a fairer operator than Zijin and have been talking to Tesla lately re a new battery cell factory in the US. Where’s all CATL’s lithium coming from for the potential Tesla deal and the FORD deal? Imo they’ll need Manono’s product.

Tesla is rumored to be planning a US LFP battery cell factory with CATL

Tesla is rumored to be planning a new battery factory to produce LFP cells in the US with China’s CATL,...

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