AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

expiry of TIA and upcoming ICC cases in the coming 2 weeks should ensure some sort of announcement - Wombat - 2.50 seems more than fair to me and would similarly be happy - could've been way more if DRC could nut up

2 fiddy is simply not enough....

 

[9cardomaha]

2 fiddy is simply not enough....

Edit: Not the value i am ascribing for TO, just a meme from childhood.

 

[Winenut]

Is it possible for Zijin to actually stall it? Or are they legally bound to the date of schedule?

If the previous reason for delay was true ie conflict of schedule of arbitrator (even though super super lucky/convenient for Z), and thus ICC likely not in Zijin’s pocket, then surely Zijin couldn’t find a way to stall?

Hopefully
Gltah

If Z can't make it or try and stall let the ICC arbitrate in their absence

They've had more than enough time to get their shit together given it has already been delayed once

If there's some sort of mysterious delay again it only adds fuel to the theory that Z are passing around les sacs en papier brun

Fukkem....royally

 

[Hodlandwin69]

@whales

I'll expand on that
First No - To not know about the corruption, he would have had to not read the Jules A Key report. Background though is that he is not in a position of strength to fight the obvious corruption, despite his rhetoric - he does not have majority support to be able to tackle it head on (and anyway, it's probably in his DNA)
Second No - see above - he needs the political support from the very cunts who are corrupt - MoP, PM, probably MoM, and many more
Third No - BoD are entirely focussed on obtaining the ML, it is the only position they can take - please, never talk about a TO without a ML

Having said that, when they finally get it, (and I think they will) bring out the turkeys and we'll talk

They're focused on TO +/- ML

 

[Charbella]

If Z can't make it or try and stall let the ICC arbitrate in their absence

They've had more than enough time to get their shit together given it has already been delayed once

If there's some sort of mysterious delay again it only adds fuel to the theory that Z are passing around le sacs en papier brun

Fukkem....royally

Yep, Zijin had 15 months! If this gets delayed again, ICC Paris has been penetrated by brown paper bags.

 

[Winenut]

View attachment 38624

Edit: Not the value i am ascribing for TO, just a meme from childhood.

 

[John25]

Then why is our BoD so optimistic one may ask. They seemed to be very happy about a positive outcome, so we will have to wait for the next announcement.

Who amongst our BoD are optimistic …are you getting your stocks mixed up …has anyone heard/seen /read anything positive from our board since AGM …Nigel/Ben/John are MIA…over too you geo

 

[Winenut]

Then why is our BoD so optimistic one may ask. They seemed to be very happy about a positive outcome, so we will have to wait for the next announcement.

 

[Frank]

I’m sure all the people with short memories are going to forget Felix has been dragged kicking and screaming to arbitration in the USA because the whole planet now knows about the corruption related to our project and the fact that Cominiere and CAMI have been allowed to hold up the project and sell it off to the Chinese for $120 million less than what it is worth (and most of that money is mysteriously unaccounted for) and the President, Prime Minister, Minister of Portfolio, Minister of Mines and DG of CAMI have all been complicit in the matter.

Now what was that again…. What ever it was we all seem to have forgotten

Franks mate Franz took the bloody words right out of my mouth / read my mind

It sounds like the IGF has a lot in common with Manono and our ML

All Talk - No Farkin' Action atm / still

Why is it so Professor

Why indeed Franz & Jules

WTF - Why the Fark

 

[Winenut]

Question regarding the buyout endgame that is mentioned quite often. Apologies in advance - my question is very naive as I don't have any experience of this type on situation. Don't mean to anger anyone. Genuinely curious to hear others' thinking on this.
When there's talk of a buyout, I assume that people mean our share of Dathcom would be bought from us.
I presume also that a Chinese or US player can't buy AVZ Minerals based on previous FIRB intervention.
That leaves only a takeover by an Australian major, but that doesn't fit with the US vs China narrative.
So the only way for one of those players to get hold of Manono is to buy AVZ's share of Dathcom.
If that's the case, then assuming for a moment that AVZ has 75% of Dathcom and Dathcom has 90% of Manono, then a buy it might yield about AUD 5.7B (0.75 x 0.9 x USD5.66B, using the ICC claim as Manono's valuation in the absence of anything better) cash for AVZ.
Let's say then that AVZ has to settle a few law suits and pay some costs here and there and walks away with about with about AUD5B.
That's about $1.40-$1.50/share, but what value would the company likely really have in that situation?
AVZ would be a cashed up company with no projects. Would the share price likely converge on a simple value of cash-at-hand/SOI less some discount for having the best (highest paid) BOD on the ASX?
I know this is all very back of the envelope and no-one knows for sure what will play out, but just curious to hear what is in others' minds when they think about the buyout scenario and how it would yield a benefit to us long suffering shareholders.

No-one was ever going to takeover AVZ minerals

Nor for that matter AVZ International

FIRB will not come into play in my opinion

The value is in Dathcom assuming Dathcom has the ML (Dathcom is not an Australian domiciled entity)

Everyone knows that Dathcom is what you want control of

All of these things are well known now

You are not as naive as you think I won't add anymore than this

 

[Onthefm]

Then why is our BoD so optimistic one may ask. They seemed to be very happy about a positive outcome, so we will have to wait for the next announcement.

Yes mate they are as optimistic as they have a great relationship with the upper echelons of government. As you would expect from the best bod on the asx. Oh fuck hang on a minute now the best bod on the asx is sueing the upper echelons of government. Mmm but I congrate your optimistic out look. But for me get me out of this complete fuck up as soon as possible any fucker that spends 20 fucken years somewhere and still doesn't get it is a clown imo. Christ he was born in kuching he didn't even get corruption there did his old man not explain it to and 20 years Congo. Somone is taking the piss.

 

[Flight996]

Is it possible for Zijin to actually stall it? Or are they legally bound to the date of schedule?

If the previous reason for delay was true ie conflict of schedule of arbitrator (even though super super lucky/convenient for Z), and thus ICC likely not in Zijin’s pocket, then surely Zijin couldn’t find a way to stall?

Hopefully
Gltah

Hi David

Here are the ICC rules, which unfortunately are silent on delays and postponements by the parties. Nonetheless, there's still something for everyone in the text.

ICC Digital Library

library.iccwbo.org

Cheers

 

[tonster66]

z has brought this action in the ICC against AVZ, so there should be no excuse for a further delay.

 

[j.l]

No-one was ever going to takeover AVZ minerals

Nor for that matter AVZ International

FIRB will not come into play in my opinion

The value is in Dathcom assuming Dathcom has the ML (Dathcom is not an Australian domiciled entity)

Everyone knows that Dathcom is what you want control of

All of these things are well known now

You are not as naive as you think I won't add anymore than this

View attachment 38632

Hey @Winenut, thanks for taking the time to reply. In hindsight it was silly of me to post the question, so I have deleted it. I was curious about how a post-buyout valuation of the company would be made, but it's inevitable that my question would be seen as a discussion of Manono value, which understandably is frowned upon right now.

 

[Frank]

*Don't Shoot the Messenger, Cos the messenger is going to

Just like the rest of you after reading this pile of

We all know who's been "Tasting the Honey" Princess

That outfit alone makes me wanna

 

[Carlos Danger]

Hey @Winenut, thanks for taking the time to reply. In hindsight it was silly of me to post the question, so I have deleted it. I was curious about how a post-buyout valuation of the company would be made, but it's inevitable that my question would be seen as a discussion of Manono value, which understandably is frowned upon right now.

Frydenberg spoke of 'secure, resilient and sustainable global supply chains' when giving his preliminary view on why the 2019 Yibin deal was unlikely to be approved. It is unlikely this criteria has changed at FIRB. Therefore concerns of control of AVZ and its 'significant interest in the Manono project' applies only to China and not the USA imo

That being said a buyout of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom is the most likely scenario. This deal would include all legal challenges being dropped and will be before the mining licence is awarded imo. I can't see the DRC government suddenly deciding to give us the licence just so AVZ shareholders can get more money. The awarding of the licence is their leverage and they will use it to benefit themselves. Not us.

As for what management do with the proceeds of a hypothetical buyout of AVZ's interest in Dathcom there are two main options. Wind up the company and payout all remaining funds to shareholders. Or pay a special dividend and continue operations with remaining funds and look for new tenements in more regular jurisdictions. The latter is more likely imo

 

[Winenut]

Hey @Winenut, thanks for taking the time to reply. In hindsight it was silly of me to post the question, so I have deleted it. I was curious about how a post-buyout valuation of the company would be made, but it's inevitable that my question would be seen as a discussion of Manono value, which understandably is frowned upon right now.

All good

I didn't want to get into the valuation.....too bloody hard!

If AVZ's effective interest in Dathcom is bought out I guess the board can decide to push on to other projects all cashed up and ready to go....or pass the cash on to all the shareholders and ride off into the sunset

That's a couple of scenarios straight off the top of the head

There's probably a hundred more.....

 

[Winenut]

All good

I didn't want to get into the valuation.....too bloody hard!

If AVZ's effective interest in Dathcom is bought out I guess the board can decide to push on to other projects all cashed up and ready to go....or pass the cash on to all the shareholders and ride off into the sunset

That's a couple of scenarios straight off the top of the head

There's probably a hundred more.....

Apologies!!

I hadn't read Mr Dangers thoughts before posting mine

So it seems there a couple of obvious possibilities in the wash up of this shit show

 

[Sparrowhawk12]

Frydenberg spoke of 'secure, resilient and sustainable global supply chains' when giving his preliminary view on why the 2019 Yibin deal was unlikely to be approved. It is unlikely this criteria has changed at FIRB. Therefore concerns of control of AVZ and its 'significant interest in the Manono project' applies only to China and not the USA imo

That being said a buyout of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom is the most likely scenario. This deal would include all legal challenges being dropped and will be before the mining licence is awarded imo. I can't see the DRC government suddenly deciding to give us the licence just so AVZ shareholders can get more money. The awarding of the licence is their leverage and they will use it to benefit themselves. Not us.

As for what management do with the proceeds of a hypothetical buyout of AVZ's interest in Dathcom there are two main options. Wind up the company and payout all remaining funds to shareholders. Or pay a special dividend and continue operations with remaining funds and look for new tenements in more regular jurisdictions. The latter is more likely imo

Would a TO pre-ML cause delays in ML for the buyer? Surely so, even with greasing Gov wheels from brown paper bag grease. A deal is a deal - wouldn't it be smarter for DRC to award ML to AVZ, immed followed by pre-agreed TO? That would also be a more spinnable story for DRC Gov to try keeping the IMF, WB, international investor gravy train running? Could be why a deal is taking so long to construct & agree on? IMO.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Would a TO pre-ML cause delays in ML for the buyer? Surely so, even with greasing Gov wheels from brown paper bag grease. A deal is a deal - wouldn't it be smarter for DRC to award ML to AVZ, immed followed by pre-agreed TO? That would also be a more spinnable story for DRC Gov to try keeping the IMF, WB, international investor gravy train running? Could be why a deal is taking so long to construct & agree on? IMO.

Why would AVZ sell if we get the ML?