AVZ Discussion 2022

[Doc]

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[whales]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

 

[whales]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Amovatio​

157 Posts.
1,765
Date:14/01/25Time:13:49:36Post #:77398366

Guys,
There is nothing in the announcement which suggests AVZ has dropped the litigation because of negotiations with the DRC. What was stated is that AVZ has a revised JV and new funding arrangement with CATH and no longer needs to draw upon the Locke Litigation funding facility.

Lets not forget who is funding and running the DRC's legal process. The corrupt Zijin Mining Group and its lawyers who have been collaboratively working with Cominiere. This bunch of criminals don't get a seat at the negotiation table with CATH, AVZ and the DRC Govt.

The restructured partnership with CATH is the window for the DRC to accelerate the development of the Manono project as well as validate AVZ's legal claims and strategy. The DRC wants to build the Mine and get this into production in 2026. This new arrangement is the only way of achieving this. The Litigation process will delay this indefinitely and be enormously costly to the DRC along with the ongoing demise in their reputation.

Also, to cancel the Arbitration process would be to allow Cominiere and the DRC to walk away without any penalties being imposed. At the very least the $Millions they owe us should be an integral part of any negotiation up and until the final date (target date Feb 7) by which the fees are required to be paid for the ICSID Tribunal hearing, scheduled for June.

The Pre completion funding agreement stipulates the Drawdowns are scheduled by end of January. This is for the Litigation process. AVZ and CATH are committed to moving forward with this process if this is needed to get action to take place. The completion of the drawdowns is scheduled in December 2026 as part of the funding agreement. This is firmly stated. There is no compromise on this strategy.
So the fines which have been increasing each day on the DRC, and now amount to in excess of $70M are not going to be waived.
The DRC needs to get its act together swiftly before the end of January and advance the negotiations to grant the Mining Licence to Dathcom (AVZi) now or risk it all at the ICSID Arbitration hearing. It is the only way the Manono Project (area covered by PR 13359) is going to get off the ground and be operational before 2027. Zijin will definitely not be part of this outcome.

 

[SilentOne]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Whales,

I dont think a miracle will be required and certainly not the second coming thats for sure.

Its amazing what the US Treasury can achieve at the push of a button and also what the ICSID/ICC can do.

No miracle is required if Felix wants to keep what he has in overseas banks. Its called self-interest/preservation.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Scoota30]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Whales,

I dont think a miracle will be required and certainly not the second coming thats for sure.

Its amazing what the US Treasury can achieve at the push of a button and also what the ICSID/ICC can do.

No miracle is required if Felix wants to keep what he has in overseas banks. Its called self-interest/preservation.

Regards,

SilentOne

This current US administration will end up getting us over the line IMO. Not sure when, but all of the ducks are starting to line up in our favour and all of Felix's ducks are turning into pineapples!

 

[wombat74]

Will be a miracle if CATL / CATH can influence Tshisekedi to grant Dathcom a mining licence to either the South or all of 13559.

Why the change of heart whales ?

"Most important now is CATH provides a major criteria in DATHCOM receiving a mining license .
Whether it is only for Roche Dure or Zijin pay a fair price for Carrier ??
Very positive for AVZ and its shareholders. .
Now when will a mining license be granted before court arbitratration ?" whales 9/01/2025

 

[ptlas]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

Wasn’t there tantalum aswell?
It's that long ago, I barely recall the details but seen to remember that there were complications around it's monetisation.
Back to US$10+ with lithium price rises.

 

[GuruDukun]

Anyone got tiktok?

Noticed there is an account for Manono Lithium



I'm not downloading the app (I'm not 16) but others might be keen to have a browse.

 

[Carlos Danger]

1. Key Assumptions (Updated):
   1. Annual Production: Assume 700,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, containing approximately 6 percent lithium oxide. This equates to approximately 96,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year.
   2. Mine Life: 20 years, based on a 400 million tonne resource.
   3. Lithium Price: 25,000 US dollars per tonne (long-term average for LCE, reflecting potential future price normalization).
   4. Operating Costs (OpEx): 4,000 US dollars per tonne of LCE, higher to reflect additional costs for operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
   5. Capital Expenditure (CapEx): 600 million US dollars (initial development costs based on recent estimates for similar projects).
   6. Discount Rate: 12 percent (to account for geopolitical and operational risks).
   7. Shares Outstanding: 3.5 billion shares.
2. Steps to Refine Valuation:
   1. Annual Revenue
      Annual revenue equals annual production multiplied by lithium price.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 25,000 US dollars per tonne equals 2.4 billion US dollars per year.
   2. Annual Operating Costs
      Annual operating costs equal annual production multiplied by operating cost per tonne.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 4,000 US dollars per tonne equals 384 million US dollars per year.
   3. Annual Cash Flow
      Annual cash flow equals revenue minus operating costs.
      2.4 billion US dollars minus 384 million US dollars equals 2.016 billion US dollars per year.
   4. Present Value of Cash Flows (Discounted)
      Using a 12 percent discount rate and a 20-year project life:
      Present value of cash flows equals annual cash flow multiplied by discount factor.
      Discount factor for a 12 percent rate over 20 years is approximately 7.47.
      2.016 billion US dollars multiplied by 7.47 equals 15.06 billion US dollars.
   5. Adjust for CapEx
      Subtract upfront capital expenditure.
      15.06 billion US dollars minus 600 million US dollars equals 14.46 billion US dollars.
   6. Per Share Value
      Value per share equals adjusted present value divided by shares outstanding.
      14.46 billion US dollars divided by 3.5 billion shares equals 4.13 US dollars per share.
3. Final Valuation
   The fair value per share for AVZ is estimated at USD 4.13, or approximately AUD 6.35 (using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.54 AUD).
   
   I would settle for 6.35 AUD per share.

You have calculated Dathcom value. AVZ own 44.5% of that for profit and selling purposes. And don’t forget the tax tax tax of 30%.

It’s gonna be cooked because the order of calculation is wrong and dividing Dathcom value by AVZ shares is incorrect but on the same basis you have chosen using your inputs it ends up around the same valuation as @geo_au and I

6.35 (-30%) x 44.5% = $1.97

 

[Mute22]

Honestly, can you blame those who exploit the system and get out?

The whole country is a bucket of crabs, always was, always will be:

 

[Azzler]

You have calculated Dathcom value. AVZ own 44.5% of that for profit and selling purposes. And don’t forget the tax tax tax of 30%.

It’s gonna be cooked because the order of calculation is wrong and dividing Dathcom value by AVZ shares is incorrect but on the same basis you have chosen using your inputs it ends up around the same valuation as @geo_au and I

6.35 (-30%) x 44.5% = $1.97

We may not end up having to pay that tax, ya never know it seems like endless surprises.

 

[Carlos Danger]

We may not end up having to pay that tax, ya never know it seems like endless surprises.

We could potentially have it dropped to 17% by disposing of GLH in Singapore although we may need to pay the difference when bringing profits back to Australia depending on various factors but otherwise it’s gonna be 30% in either DRC or Australia. Could potentially be avoided if AVZ is sold completely but that is unlikely due to firb and bod indicating previously that they would continue the company if they sold Manono imo

 

[Winenut]

I would love them to negotiate a removal or at least decent reduction of the DRC tax as part of any deal if it were to happen

Seems only fair for the amount of absolute shitfuckery they have put AVZ shareholders through for nearly 3 fucking years now

 

[Dazmac66]

Nice, even if it is published by the bottom dwelling organization.

 

[Winenut]

View attachment 76906
Nice, even if it is published by the bottom dwelling organization.

I've heard the quality of journalism, the accuracy of research and the general articles have improved immensely since Tommy Fuckface was given the arse....

 

[BRICK]

I've heard the quality of journalism, the accuracy of research and the general articles have improved immensely since Tommy Fuckface was given the arse....

View attachment 76907

Well.... WHILE WE ARE RUNNING SOME GOLDEN OLDIES...

 

[BRICK]

 

[Dazmac66]

I've heard the quality of journalism, the accuracy of research and the general articles have improved immensely since Tommy Fuckface was given the arse....

View attachment 76907

It will be very interesting when AVZ has the coin to pursue this grub. Pay the very best lawyers to drill down into his finances. Maybe find the motivation behind his complete distain for a genuine Aussie company and it's 20000 investors. Tick tock Tommy!

 

[Winenut]

It will be very interesting when AVZ has the coin to pursue this grub. Pay the very best lawyers to drill down into his finances. Maybe find the motivation behind his complete distain for a genuine Aussie company and it's 20000 investors. Tick tock Tommy!

Totally agree...

It's criminal what that prick was allowed to publish (and let's not forget it was the AFR that also allowed that to happen) so let's get to the bottom of how that all occured......when the time is appropriate

Bigger fish to fry right now but I'm up for incinerating the absolute living fuck out of all those little fish as well

Their contribution to the anti Australian, anti AVZ, pro Chinese, pro Cong, pro Boatman, pro Zijin, pro DRC corruption, pro MMGA, pro Carrick, pro Huljich, pro Ludbrook, pro Eastwood, pro Omni Bridgeway connections should not be ignored and the financial incentives and money trails involved should be absolutely fucking investigated and exposed for all to see by the Australian Government, ASIC, the ATO, the FIRB, the AFP and all other related institutions

Fukkem

Those pricks participated in, and misrepresented, the biggest, orchestrated, corrupted, corporate/commercial theft in living history affecting the livelihoods, finances and mental health of tens of thousands of honest Mum and Dad investors in Australia, the good and honest people of the DRC and enormous numbers of interested parties and international investors elsewhere in the world

 

[Bray]

View attachment 76914

Hahahaha that’s wild