AVZ Discussion 2022

Spikerama

Regular
Let's go, let's go!

Interesting comment about toning things down on X, hmm 🤔

I think he's right about being civil in how we communicate and act on social media. It's been bugging me for a while now and I know I've said all this before but I'm going reiterate just one last time.

As we move into what is potentially the final stages of this long and drawn out battle, I respect that every one is tired and just wants a resolution and tempers may be getting a bit short but I think we need to keep in mind that these potential deals could all fall over at any second for any reason.

I've always maintained that name calling and swearing at our detractors and obvious sealioning is not a good idea and it doesn't achieve anything more than sticking to the facts and presenting them in interesting and creative ways. It just makes the perpetrator come across as a recalcitrant tosser. Sure, it may make one feel good to be constantly acting like a cunt towards someone you hate but it doesn't make the rest of us feel good. Especially when we are tarred, by association as "the shareholders".

The facts are the most powerful part of this story. Not constantly calling people "Dickhead" or "Asshole"

I don't know August V much. I've seen him around but he seems quite connected and in the know. And he always conducts himself in a civil manner and makes very strong points. If he's saying this now, at this stage, I'm willing to trust there's a reason.
 
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Flight996

Regular
Brendo726 posted this on the other place:

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Finally the DRC may be taking international arbitrations seriously following the recent ICC ruling awarding AVZ Minerals 39 million euros in penalties against Cominiere for ignoring ICC interim orders. Driven by the need for security and capital investment, and the US delegation currently in Kinshasa, the DRC has to be seen doing something positive around procedures and the rule of law.

Cheers
F
 
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Frank

Top 20
Strategic Minerals in Exchange for Security: Kinshasa and Washington Agree on a Way Forward

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Recently appointed Senior Advisor for Africa to the US President, Massad Boulosa has been in Kinshasa since Thursday, April 3, where he was received by President Félix Tshisekedi at the African Union City.

Their meeting focused primarily on the security situation in the east and the economic outlook between the US and the DRC, two countries that maintain strategic cooperation.

Regarding the DRC's proposal to the US for a strategic minerals in exchange for security, Massad Boulosa explained that a compromise was reached with President Tshisekedi on the way forward for developing this partnership.

"You've heard about a minerals agreement.

"We have reviewed the DRC's proposal, and I am pleased to announce that the President and I have agreed on a path forward for its development," said President Donald Trump's Africa Advisor.

He added: "I look forward to working with President Félix Tshisekedi and his team to build a deeper relationship that benefits the Congolese and American people, and to stimulate U.S. private sector investment in the DRC, particularly in the mining sector, with the shared goal of contributing to the prosperity of both our countries."


Regarding the war in eastern DRC, President Trump's senior Africa advisor stated that the U.S. remains committed to helping end the conflict.

"We seek a lasting peace that affirms the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the DRC, and lays the foundation for a thriving regional economy."

This relationship has great potential, and we appreciate the opportunity to discuss the way forward with our counterparts here in Kinshasa,” he concluded.

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LOCKY82

Regular
Seems like DRC finally trying to get this sorted although wouldn't hold my breath!
All it took was some rebels trying to overthrow the government ffs
 
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Seems like DRC finally trying to get this sorted although wouldn't hold my breath!
All it took was some rebels trying to overthrow the government ffs
Luckily it was some rebels and not us!
 
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Spikerama

Regular
@Frank


Today's ammo top up.

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Skar

Regular
I would not be the least bit surprised if America and DRC are looking for any way possible to get around us
Except that they have already said AVZ needs to be compensated and that they want to encourage US PRIVATE investment... US is not China where the state comes in and takes ownership, communist style. The US want the minerals true but they want private citizens to fund it all (and to reap the rewards of doing that).

If there is any sense of impropriety, why would private investment start flowing in? Thats the bedrock of the minerals for security deal, too soon for whale pics to start flowing until we know specifics and what assurances etc will take shape but it will be an exciting two months.
 
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Doc

Master of Quan
OK so that seemed to have gone well.
Now will we get any updates from management taking into account there was supposedly a AVZ rep over in the DRC....
 
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Frank

Top 20
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Frank

Top 20

Mining consolidation to speed up as Chinese demand growth slows​

Joint ventures and asset sales are expected to accelerate in the mining industry, which is ripe for consolidation due to the slowdown in manufacturing and demand growth for industrial metals, particularly in top consumer China.
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However, full-scale mergers and acquisitions activity among diversified miners could be hampered for now by prohibitive high costs and significant chances of eventual rejection, investors said ahead of a global gathering of the copper industry for the CESCO event in Santiago, Chile next week.

Reluctance to engage at a company level is seen in LSEG data showing M&A in mining sector fell 27% in value terms to $15 billion in the first quarter compared to the same 2024 period.

Since the start of 2024, BHP’s shares have slumped 26% and Rio Tinto has dropped 23%, while Glencore’s shares have collapsed 42%.

Companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto have robust balance sheets and are delivering handsome returns to shareholders, but they are approaching a period of stalled earnings growth.

With no other country able to pick up the slack left by China and trade wars triggered by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs, miners are thinking more about creating value and strength through scale.

“We are seeing more discussions about partnering, joint ventures and asset sales,” said George Cheveley, portfolio manager at Investment Manager Ninety One.


Australia-listed BHP also recently formed a joint venture – Vicuña – with Lundin Mining.

Vicuña now owns the Filo copper project in Argentina and the Josemaria project in Chile.

Struggling with declining ore grades BHP is planning to invest $10.8 billion over a period of 10 years in Chile starting with the Escondida operation.

Instead of investing for growth, some have typically opted to boost shareholder returns with dividends and share buybacks.

“Our analysis suggests that valuation multiples are not responding to higher payout ratios and buybacks are no longer delivering strong returns making the pivot to growth more appealing,” said James Whiteside, head of corporate for metals and mining at Wood Mackenzie.

“Diversified companies seeking relevance through big payouts aren’t being rewarded, but the read across from copper miners is, investing in production growth pays.”

Historical precedents​

“Historically, merger discussions often occur either at the very top of the cycle, because mining companies have a lot of money, or at the very bottom of the cycle, because there’s a need to find ways to create value,” said Christel Bories, chairman of French mining group Eramet.

The ball started rolling in April 2023 when London-listed Glencore’s attempt to buy Teck Resources for $23 billion was rejected.

Glencore instead bought Teck’s metallurgical coal portfolio for $7 billion.

But it was when the world’s biggest miner BHP went hostile with a $49 billion bid for Anglo American, the mining world understood a restructuring of the industry was on the horizon.

“It’s important in the mining world for BHP to kick off the M&A cycle because it makes it easier for other CEOs to sell the idea to their boards,” said Liberum analyst Tom Price.

What has made selling the idea of M&A to company boards easier this time are forecasts of rocketing copper demand partly due to power grid replacement and upgrades and e-mobility which includes electric vehicles, scooters and bikes.

mining.com


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www.xtrafrica.com



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Frank

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Kobold and Rio have been in a partnership since 2023 in Thunder Bay, Canada exploring a prospect for copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium:

https://www.northernontariobusiness...-nickel-cobalt-and-lithium-in-neebing-6848264

So the writer is entitled to presume a partnership is indeed in the air given in the report that US special envoy, Massad Boulos, is meeting in Kinshasa with Felix and business leaders. Further:

One of Massad Boulos’s primary missions will be to facilitate the recovery and resale of a contested lithium project, currently in the sights of mining giant Rio Tinto.

https://english.congovirtuel.com/ko...on-to-broker-a-lithium-mining-deal-in-manono/
Writing on the Wall #.jpg


 
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Skar

Regular
lets not play the holier than thou card here, us in the west have massive blood on our hands via our ridiculously corrupt leaders. The only difference is we are more sophisticated in our approach and our bought and paid for mainstream media are more cunning and professional at hiding the fraud and lies of our government
How you see the US or the west is how I see EVERY global leader. My view on war is its all about (poor to regular) people fighting other people to decide where to pay their taxes. Thats why even when nations go to war, commerce still continues through ideologically opposed viewpoints (iphones are made in China and Europe clamours to buy gas/oil from Russia) and even now billionaires stand to lose a lot of money with the new US tariffs but the impact to average joes like you or me probably won't be all that felt (but the news will sensationalise it all like its the apocalypse or the end of world order).

The full potential of Manono is MASSIVE on the lithium market, the full potential of transnational African minerals is many many magnitudes more for the US and thats why I have hope of a good outcome for us.
 
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CHB

Regular
Isn't the best outcome now not to push for a ML for AVZ as that means CATH will get a decent chunk of ownership?

Think we're better off pushing for the North to come back to us, confirming AVZ ownership and guarantees for any future owner to progress development of the mine?
 
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Dazmac66

Regular
Rio share price getting hammered! Any chance we can do a share swap today or Monday as part of the deal? Im very happy for this to move quite quickly.
 
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My thoughts (FWIW)....
ML around 10/4...... then on sell 🤔
 
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Azzler

Top 20
Isn't the best outcome now not to push for a ML for AVZ as that means CATH will get a decent chunk of ownership?

Think we're better off pushing for the North to come back to us, confirming AVZ ownership and guarantees for any future owner to progress development of the mine?
Not an issue, the DRC need only tell CATH they can not have ownership in Manono, which will void the agreement.
 
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CHB

Regular
Not an issue, the DRC need only tell CATH they can not have ownership in Manono, which will void the agreement.
Hopefully that's the case... Cause the figures banded around whilst nice, isn't too exciting
 

Skar

Regular
Not an issue, the DRC need only tell CATH they can not have ownership in Manono, which will void the agreement.
Sure they can tell Zijin that too then before the ICC/ICSD does.
 
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