AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Mute22
Regular
I know there have been a lot of positive developments recently, and it's encouraging to see some mentions of big names interested partnering/purchasing, but with the sheer complexity of this situation, the pessimist in me (and my gut feeling) still says we’re a long way from the finish line.
I just don’t see this being resolved in the next few months and I think our cases will begin as negotiations are still underway in the background.
I only say this to help keep expectations in check as the Board of Directors continues to navigate what is clearly a legal and geopolitical quagmire. Remaining stoic is tough, but necessary here for all holders if only for your own mental health.
I just don’t see this being resolved in the next few months and I think our cases will begin as negotiations are still underway in the background.
I only say this to help keep expectations in check as the Board of Directors continues to navigate what is clearly a legal and geopolitical quagmire. Remaining stoic is tough, but necessary here for all holders if only for your own mental health.
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
10 April. I went looking for “where’s the money, Lebowski?”, this seemed good enough
Last edited:
Spikerama
Regular
Spikerama
Regular
Well actually she's Singaporean Malay but her family stems from West Java.
Alright just sharing some more of my spitballing / speculation.
When I'm working with dates I always like to map things out visually on planners/calendars/timelines.
Here is my rough record of events / future assumptions for our current direction. (don't quote me on exact dates)
I am running on the assumption that IF there is a deal, it will be sorted prior to the ICSID.
Doing so:
- has huge value to DRC for changing their images as a corrupt country that's bad for business (key to US invovement)
- has huge value to potential buyers as every step more that AVZ fights secures their own position and raises the buy-in required for new parties
- pre-empts any deal with with CATH
I am also running on the assumption:
- that now US interest is public and serious deals are being considered, there is some time pressure to preempt a counter proposal from the Chinese
- RIO and Kobold both have already done their due-diligence on the resource and are thoroughly aware of its potential.
- Any deal would require an EGM, and despite time pressures 4 weeks notice is still appropriate.
- There needs to be at least a week or 2 after the EGM to actually finalise and sign an agreement.
- Even if an agreement were close, the board would not agree to 'postpone' any hearings, because they know they would be roasted alive by shareholders.
So, this is what the key events over the past/future couple of months look like on a timeline.
For me, we are entering into the period where IF there were a serious offer, I would expect it to be made.
It's not direct, but it roughly lines up with the mysterious "10th of April" so I wonder if that had something to do with the BoD imposing a timeline to enter serious discussions?
The hopeful part of me would speculate that the board has already been talking numbers with these parties.
News stories about a deal between DRC and US being 'close' would also suggest this. Even if they haven't yet made an offer, I'm sure Kobold et al know what they would need to offer to get this over the line, and are proceeding based on that being viable.
Again, all just my rough workings-out because I like to see these things visually but I thought I'd share it here.
When I'm working with dates I always like to map things out visually on planners/calendars/timelines.
Here is my rough record of events / future assumptions for our current direction. (don't quote me on exact dates)
I am running on the assumption that IF there is a deal, it will be sorted prior to the ICSID.
Doing so:
- has huge value to DRC for changing their images as a corrupt country that's bad for business (key to US invovement)
- has huge value to potential buyers as every step more that AVZ fights secures their own position and raises the buy-in required for new parties
- pre-empts any deal with with CATH
I am also running on the assumption:
- that now US interest is public and serious deals are being considered, there is some time pressure to preempt a counter proposal from the Chinese
- RIO and Kobold both have already done their due-diligence on the resource and are thoroughly aware of its potential.
- Any deal would require an EGM, and despite time pressures 4 weeks notice is still appropriate.
- There needs to be at least a week or 2 after the EGM to actually finalise and sign an agreement.
- Even if an agreement were close, the board would not agree to 'postpone' any hearings, because they know they would be roasted alive by shareholders.
So, this is what the key events over the past/future couple of months look like on a timeline.
For me, we are entering into the period where IF there were a serious offer, I would expect it to be made.
It's not direct, but it roughly lines up with the mysterious "10th of April" so I wonder if that had something to do with the BoD imposing a timeline to enter serious discussions?
The hopeful part of me would speculate that the board has already been talking numbers with these parties.
News stories about a deal between DRC and US being 'close' would also suggest this. Even if they haven't yet made an offer, I'm sure Kobold et al know what they would need to offer to get this over the line, and are proceeding based on that being viable.
Again, all just my rough workings-out because I like to see these things visually but I thought I'd share it here.
Last edited:
Spikerama
Regular
That's awesome mate. So well done.
I feel like I need to make an applet out of it; where it clearly shows the needle approaching the danger zone.
Fucked if I know how though. My brain is already hurting.
Last edited:
Scoota30
Regular
Has it been 3 decades already? It feels like a long time but not sure it's been that long yet?
cruiser51
Top 20
Some interesting information....
Howard William Lutnick (born July 14, 1961) is an American billionaire businessman, philanthropist and politician who has been the 41st and current United States Secretary of Commerce since 2025.
Lutnick survived the September 11 attacks when he was at the World Trade Center.
Lutnick owns 60% of Cantor Fitzgerald, with a net worth of "at least $1.5 billion".
Cantor Fitzgerald, a financial services firm, was involved in a placement for AVZ Minerals Limited (ASX: AVZ) to raise $75 million for its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) project.
Soooo.....
Lutnick knows a bit about AVZ.
Interesting stuff.
Howard William Lutnick (born July 14, 1961) is an American billionaire businessman, philanthropist and politician who has been the 41st and current United States Secretary of Commerce since 2025.
Lutnick survived the September 11 attacks when he was at the World Trade Center.
Lutnick owns 60% of Cantor Fitzgerald, with a net worth of "at least $1.5 billion".
Cantor Fitzgerald, a financial services firm, was involved in a placement for AVZ Minerals Limited (ASX: AVZ) to raise $75 million for its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) project.
Soooo.....
Lutnick knows a bit about AVZ.
Interesting stuff.
The problem may be that if Felix caves to US wanting all of Manono, then the Chinese may come for him.
So rock and a hard place, but it would make it more difficult for US to take all of Manono without some concessions.
So maybe AVZ needs to continue with litigation for longer than we all would like.
Rechnerhand
Regular
Based on what AVZ Minerals stated at 14 March 2025 and parties showed interest in the resource in the recent days I think it is (for sure - as there is no proof on the table) not totally clear why focus is on how much AVZ need to be valued for a so called fair asset deal ...
AVZ stated there " ... representatives of AVZ recently travelled to the US with a view to raising funds to support its endeavours to secure and develop the Manono Lithium Project including via a long-term commitment in respect to its share of the mineral offtake ... "
I read here they are confident in receiving confirmation via ICC and ICSID but will not of course looking for parties to sell their majority percentage to a high bidder. Funding the project is different then selling your asset and raising funds is a clear message at this point I guess. (Would be interesting to know in which pos. they trying to raise funds ... AVZ, AVZI, Dathcom ... ). Anyhow I'm not that sure we'll see a buyout based on this statement.
(Fun fact - they are not mentioning it there as the former "Manono Lithium and Tin Project". This could indicate that funds are exclusively reserved for their Lithium resource - JMO).
--> 31 January 2024
AVZ stated there " ... representatives of AVZ recently travelled to the US with a view to raising funds to support its endeavours to secure and develop the Manono Lithium Project including via a long-term commitment in respect to its share of the mineral offtake ... "
I read here they are confident in receiving confirmation via ICC and ICSID but will not of course looking for parties to sell their majority percentage to a high bidder. Funding the project is different then selling your asset and raising funds is a clear message at this point I guess. (Would be interesting to know in which pos. they trying to raise funds ... AVZ, AVZI, Dathcom ... ). Anyhow I'm not that sure we'll see a buyout based on this statement.
(Fun fact - they are not mentioning it there as the former "Manono Lithium and Tin Project". This could indicate that funds are exclusively reserved for their Lithium resource - JMO).
Rechnerhand
Regular
"3Ts" ... tungsten, tantalum, tin ..... DRC Launches Strategic Plan to Secure 3T Minerals Amid Regional Smuggling Concerns --> "Manono Lithium and Tin Project" or just "The Manono Lithium Project"
Rechnerhand
Regular
Not sure I got your point correct but this sounds like apple and orange ... selling my asset and have nothing to do with its further progress or raising funds to participate with them together in developing this project is not the same, isn't it?
Frank
Top 20
Similar threads
