AVZ Discussion 2022

tonster66

Regular
We seem to be focusing on the USA and DRC agreement and how much the US will pay for Manono, but what about the Chinese. What happens if we get to the court steps and the Chinese make an offer to good to refuse eg. $10b and AVZ accepts this offer and sells to the Chinese, giving China total control of Manono with no court case but legal ownership, what would happen then? This is a possibility. The US need to come up with a decent offer or China will get it.
Just my thoughts
 
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wombat74

Top 20
I hold a similar target of $1-2, regardless of true value. For no other reason than tempering expectations keeps me sane lol.

Also not expecting a sale for AVZ to be announced prior to the DRC/RWANDA security deal being signed and ratified. Be nuts for Kobold or whoever to commit billions without US commitment locked in.

So, for me, it's now a two month minimum wait, at which point our negotiations can be finalised, automatically rendering ICSID redundant and discontinued.

Thus anytime from July onwards for a sale/TO, with money in the bank EOY.
Works for me, happy daze. :)
Just to keep things interesting I'm going with a result prior to the ICISD start date . Remembering both sides have already put their cases forward . So we hit the ground running from day one with Lawyers arguments .From day one exposing Corrupt Ministers/Officials .
 
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Roon

Regular
Just to keep things interesting I'm going with a result prior to the ICISD start date . Remembering both sides have already put their cases forward . So we hit the ground running from day one with Lawyers arguments .From day one exposing Corrupt Ministers/Officials .
Though will the start date get pushed back due to the DRC challenge on jurisdiction?
 
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Spikerama

Regular
Just to keep things interesting I'm going with a result prior to the ICISD start date . Remembering both sides have already put their cases forward . So we hit the ground running from day one with Lawyers arguments .From day one exposing Corrupt Ministers/Officials .

It's Twenty Five till we eat them alive.

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app_ (36).png
 
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wombat74

Top 20
Though will the start date get pushed back due to the DRC challenge on jurisdiction?
Yeh you'd have to expect it . Chinese play book .
 
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PhatCatz

Regular
We seem to be focusing on the USA and DRC agreement and how much the US will pay for Manono, but what about the Chinese. What happens if we get to the court steps and the Chinese make an offer to good to refuse eg. $10b and AVZ accepts this offer and sells to the Chinese, giving China total control of Manono with no court case but legal ownership, what would happen then? This is a possibility. The US need to come up with a decent offer or China will get it.
Just my thoughts
Obviously looking in from the outside and not knowing what’s actually going on…

I think for this reasons the Chinese might ironically be the reason AVZ shareholders get a decent return given the circumstances. Yes I know those corrupt mutts put us in this situation but I also think they’ll try to make USA pay and not get a freebie. Actually, I’d be absolutely gobsmacked if they (CATH specifically) have not already put in an offer greater than what KoBold have allegedly put forward.

Also I fully suspect that any TO will get huge financial support from respective governments whether Chinese or US. So while $10 billion is a huge amount for a single company to invest in one asset…. A 4 way JV propped up by significant Government seed funding makes things much easier to sell to shareholders but also to financiers and Governments.

Let’s just say I’ve been sleeping comfortably the past few months. 🫡
 
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We seem to be focusing on the USA and DRC agreement and how much the US will pay for Manono, but what about the Chinese. What happens if we get to the court steps and the Chinese make an offer to good to refuse eg. $10b and AVZ accepts this offer and sells to the Chinese, giving China total control of Manono with no court case but legal ownership, what would happen then? This is a possibility. The US need to come up with a decent offer or China will get it.
Just my thoughts
I'm of a similar opinion, at the moment the conversation is circulating around being bought out entirely via the ISCID route, which is optimal in my opinion if a fair value or higher offer comes in. Everyone is assuming that going down the ISCID process will take years for the DRC to provide us with any compensation being awarded as DRC will drag their heels or ignore the verdict and stall paying anything, and discount anything they do pay us. But isn't the purpose of ICC & ISCID to confirm our legal title and seek compensation? I may have misunderstood at some point, but if no fair offer is made or verdict acted on, once we have confirmed legal title, what is stopping AVZ from continuing to proceed to mining ourselves?

Before this all got locked up, for years the "we're going mining" was the chant of the threads. A buyout has now become that chant because the preference for holders is to gtfo of the DRC with a profit (or a loss depending what value you're pedaling) and clean our hands of it. But with good legal title, what's stopping us from going back to plan A? Or at least start to develop it until a fair value sale is offered, which one would assume 'fair' would continue to rise the more the project is progressed... Would it just be a lack of DRC awarding an ML in which case the asset remains locked up for years to come? Does ICC/ISCID have the power to rule that DRC must issue an ML or can they only deal with financial compensation alone?

Just musings, I may be completely misunderstanding in the above,
 
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Skar

Regular
I hold a similar target of $1-2, regardless of true value. For no other reason than tempering expectations keeps me sane lol.

Also not expecting a sale for AVZ to be announced prior to the DRC/RWANDA security deal being signed and ratified. Be nuts for Kobold or whoever to commit billions without US commitment locked in.

So, for me, it's now a two month minimum wait, at which point our negotiations can be finalised, automatically rendering ICSID redundant and discontinued.

Thus anytime from July onwards for a sale/TO, with money in the bank EOY.

Just trying to work back to your price, more learned people can chime in here where I am off.

3.5B shares on issue, so $1-2 is 3.5~7B price for 840 million tones @ 1.6% DSO or around 200 million tones of SC6... measured (plus all the excess projected they didn't drill once they had a commercial plan to enter production beyond 30+ years). So 200M SC6 at a current rate of around $800/t USD (historic peak of around $5000/t, with demand projected to exponentially compound from 2030 and beyond as we electrify the planet and move to solid state battery tech with longer ranges and duty cycles).

Even if we calculate at base rates for the above thats 160B USD rev, so operating costs of what? 1/3? Round down to 100B USD or 150B AUD, then development, financing, Africa, technology and what other risk considerations bring you down to 7B?
 
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Mute22

Regular
Just trying to work back to your price, more learned people can chime in here where I am off.

3.5B shares on issue, so $1-2 is 3.5~7B price for 840 million tones @ 1.6% DSO or around 200 million tones of SC6... measured (plus all the excess projected they didn't drill once they had a commercial plan to enter production beyond 30+ years). So 200M SC6 at a current rate of around $800/t USD (historic peak of around $5000/t, with demand projected to exponentially compound from 2030 and beyond as we electrify the planet and move to solid state battery tech with longer ranges and duty cycles).

Even if we calculate at base rates for the above thats 160B USD rev, so operating costs of what? 1/3? Round down to 100B USD or 150B AUD, then development, financing, Africa, technology and what other risk considerations bring you down to 7B?
1746579627593.png
 
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Doc

Master of Quan
We seem to be focusing on the USA and DRC agreement and how much the US will pay for Manono, but what about the Chinese. What happens if we get to the court steps and the Chinese make an offer to good to refuse eg. $10b and AVZ accepts this offer and sells to the Chinese, giving China total control of Manono with no court case but legal ownership, what would happen then? This is a possibility. The US need to come up with a decent offer or China will get it.
Just my thoughts
Dont give a rats arse what happens then. We get our money, get drunk on an AVZ Australia/NZ tour and live our lives happily.
 
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Frank

Top 20
We seem to be focusing on the USA and DRC agreement and how much the US will pay for Manono, but what about the Chinese. What happens if we get to the court steps and the Chinese make an offer to good to refuse eg. $10b and AVZ accepts this offer and sells to the Chinese, giving China total control of Manono with no court case but legal ownership, what would happen then? This is a possibility. The US need to come up with a decent offer or China will get it.
Just my thoughts
*Fyi, In other News, I see where,

Saudi Arabia and US to sign mining deal

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday that it is set to discuss and sign a mining cooperation agreement with the United States.
blank.gif


According to Saudi’s state news agency, the cabinet let by Prince Mohammed bin Salman has authorized the Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources to engage with US officials on a draft memorandum of cooperation.

The deal, which will focus on collaboration in mining and mineral resources, is expected to be signed with the US Department of Energy, the cabinet’s statement reads.

This move comes as Saudi Arabia accelerates its drive to become a global hub for battery and electric vehicle manufacturing.


The Kingdom is investing heavily in mining and industrial development as part of its broader strategy to diversify the economy away from oil dependence under Vision 2030.

Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar bin Ibrahim Alkhorayef has outlined plans to import raw materials and manufacture batteries using a mix of local and imported metals.

In parallel, Saudi Arabia is seeking to expand its footprint in international mining markets.

In January, Saudi officials and Chile’s state-owned miner Codelco began early-stage discussions on potential joint investments in the copper sector.

Saudi Arabia is also exploring lithium imports from Chile for domestic processing.

The country has also made strategic investments abroad through Manara Minerals Investment Co.—a joint venture between the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden).

In 2023, Manara acquired a 10% stake in Vale Base Metals, the $26 billion copper and nickel spinoff from Vale.

www.mining.com/saudi-arabia-and-us-to-sign-mining-deal/

Hmmm !.jpg


1746583288099.png


#Hmmm.jpg
 
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Scoota30

Regular
"Felix, you don't hold the cards!"

1000003739.jpg
 
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BEISHA

Top 20
A
@mute2 I see your passion , my frustration was the same for a few years , but , but now on my 4 marriage I have learnt to shut my mouth and not be baited from toxic people , stay calm mate
it took four marriages for you to learn to shut your mouth ?

Now thats what i call a expensive learning experience......;)
 
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Hudnut

Regular
We seem to be focusing on the USA and DRC agreement and how much the US will pay for Manono, but what about the Chinese. What happens if we get to the court steps and the Chinese make an offer to good to refuse eg. $10b and AVZ accepts this offer and sells to the Chinese, giving China total control of Manono with no court case but legal ownership, what would happen then? This is a possibility. The US need to come up with a decent offer or China will get it.
Just my thoughts

And then the Chinese pull out somewhere during the takover, *after* we've had to make the takeover announcement and piss off US investors.
While they continue to mine.
Arseholes.
 
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whales

Regular
"Felix, you don't hold the cards!"

View attachment 83949
That is an alternative view indeed.
I thought Felix is the only person that can avoid going to court by simply issuing a Predidential Decree awarding a ML to AVZ for the entire tenement with conditions .
Once this is awarded then AVZ can negotiate to US a take over.
Who would appose him FT as he can blanket it under Minerals for Security .
Zijin know they have no legal rights and would not follow a path to ICC as it would expose their corruption.
Should find out soon enough .
All Imo
 
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wombat74

Top 20
That is an alternative view indeed.
I thought Felix is the only person that can avoid going to court by simply issuing a Predidential Decree awarding a ML to AVZ for the entire tenement with conditions .
Once this is awarded then AVZ can negotiate to US a take over.
Who would appose him FT as he can blanket it under Minerals for Security .
Zijin know they have no legal rights and would not follow a path to ICC as it would expose their corruption.
Should find out soon enough .
All Imo
And after a deal is struck the Chinese will bring out a 1 Billion tonne high grade JORC for CDL . Chinese Chess .
 
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Goldenboy

Regular
From Amovatio on the Crapper.

Danny, did you give any thought to the chronology of current and future events in relation to your statement? Why would AVZ walk away and cancel the legal proceedings when the Court hearing is scheduled to kick off in under 4 weeks? AVZ would lose its strategic advantage if it withdrew the legal proceedings before the ICSID without any form of confirmed settlement to our claim.
What would be the catalyst for a buyout/payout to occur when the USA hasn’t signed an Agreement with the DRC and there is no commitment from either party to include AVZ’S CLAIM in the settlement terms. KoBold metals and RIO would not be interested until the USA Administration has a formal legal commitment.
AVZ Lawyers and the ICSID judicial party are about to issue subpoena's on the DRC to ensure they have adequate time to arrange flights to the hearing.
The ICSID Hearing may not be a critical timeline on the agenda of the USA but you can bet it’s a high priority for the DRC.
Why hasn’t the DRC been more proactive in looking for a settlement? The answer is simple, they just don’t understand the context of International Law and don’t get the actions they orchestrated against AVZ were in fact illegal.
I don’t think they even understand the complexity of the organisation that has to happen for delegates from the DRC, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin Mining group and the President of the DRC all having to attend the Court Hearing to take the stand and answer questions from AVZ Lawyers to give context to the depth of corruption and fraudulent actions that caused AVZ's Mining Licence to be cancelled. I can see them all lining up one by one and throwing each other under the bus if the Court hearing is to go ahead.

The DRC is about to learn in a big way what is going to happen one way or another and very soon. Any agreement the DRC signs with the USA (before June) will most certainly include, the settlement terms AVZ has submitted under its claim before the ICSID Hearing or should the ICSID Hearing go ahead as scheduled the payment terms from the verdict decided upon from the ICSID including the totality of fines and sanctions that are handed down (2-3 months post hearing).
IMO the USA has already stipulated to the DRC and Rwanda they need to sign a Peace Deal asap before the USA will sign off on any Minerals deal. The Declaration of Principles which they both signed was a significant step they both signed for peace and prosperity in their regions More recently both regions submitted their terms to the USA administration for the Peace deal suggesting these ISSUES are of extreme importance.

The compelling date for the DRC, more importantly, is very soon (before June), not in a couple of months, so this is becoming very urgent for them and they seem to be moving quickly, with very good reason.
In President Trumps's first 100 days he suspended the payment of $4M in international AID to the DRC and Rwanda and said he would review this over the next 3 months. Well that time is about now so the USA is also using this as leverage.

If the price being paid to AVZ is going to come from USA financial sources or investment companies there is every reason for the DRC to get a settlement done with AVZ asap. The total investment being discussed with the USA including the Lobito corridor and other Mining projects for copper, cobalt, uranium and many other critical minerals on the USA agenda put the payout to AVZ as being relatively small.
Nigel and Piper lawyers are in the USA so we know their presence in country has significance and meetings/ negotiations we can assume are happening to bring about an amicable resolution.
AVZ SHS would all be hoping a settlement announcement is made very soon or we continue with our Claim before the ICSID.
 
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Dave Evans

Regular
From Amovatio on the Crapper.

@Goldenboy I cut and pasted your crapper post below 👇

Danny, did you give any thought to the chronology of current and future events in relation to your statement? Why would AVZ walk away and cancel the legal proceedings when the Court hearing is scheduled to kick off in under 4 weeks? AVZ would lose its strategic advantage if it withdrew the legal proceedings before the ICSID without any form of confirmed settlement to our claim.

What would be the catalyst for a buyout/payout to occur when the USA hasn’t signed an Agreement with the DRC and there is no commitment from either party to include AVZ’S CLAIM in the settlement terms. KoBold metals and RIO would not be interested until the USA Administration has a formal legal commitment.

AVZ Lawyers and the ICSID judicial party are about to issue subpoena's on the DRC to ensure they have adequate time to arrange flights to the hearing.

The ICSID Hearing may not be a critical timeline on the agenda of the USA but you can bet it’s a high priority for the DRC.

Why hasn’t the DRC been more proactive in looking for a settlement? The answer is simple, they just don’t understand the context of International Law and don’t get the actions they orchestrated against AVZ were in fact illegal.

I don’t think they even understand the complexity of the organisation that has to happen for delegates from the DRC, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin Mining group and the President of the DRC all having to attend the Court Hearing to take the stand and answer questions from AVZ Lawyers to give context to the depth of corruption and fraudulent actions that caused AVZ's Mining Licence to be cancelled. I can see them all lining up one by one and throwing each other under the bus if the Court hearing is to go ahead.

The DRC is about to learn in a big way what is going to happen one way or another and very soon. Any agreement the DRC signs with the USA (before June) will most certainly include, the settlement terms AVZ has submitted under its claim before the ICSID Hearing or should the ICSID Hearing go ahead as scheduled the payment terms from the verdict decided upon from the ICSID including the totality of fines and sanctions that are handed down (2-3 months post hearing).

IMO the USA has already stipulated to the DRC and Rwanda they need to sign a Peace Deal asap before the USA will sign off on any Minerals deal. The Declaration of Principles which they both signed was a significant step they both signed for peace and prosperity in their regions More recently both regions submitted their terms to the USA administration for the Peace deal suggesting these ISSUES are of extreme importance.

The compelling date for the DRC, more importantly, is very soon (before June), not in a couple of months, so this is becoming very urgent for them and they seem to be moving quickly, with very good reason.

In President Trumps's first 100 days he suspended the payment of $4M in international AID to the DRC and Rwanda and said he would review this over the next 3 months. Well that time is about now so the USA is also using this as leverage.

If the price being paid to AVZ is going to come from USA financial sources or investment companies there is every reason for the DRC to get a settlement done with AVZ asap. The total investment being discussed with the USA including the Lobito corridor and other Mining projects for copper, cobalt, uranium and many other critical minerals on the USA agenda put the payout to AVZ as being relatively small.

Nigel and Piper lawyers are in the USA so we know their presence in country has significance and meetings/ negotiations we can assume are happening to bring about an amicable resolution.

AVZ SHS would all be hoping a settlement announcement is made very soon or we continue with our Claim before the ICSID.

👆 Thanks for sharing that fantastic post @Goldenboy

I don’t read the crapper and haven’t for years. I want the case to go to the ICSID, I want all the corrupt arseholes to be exposed, held accountable and publicly shamed. We have fought off the corrupt actors involved for three years, finally something is imminent (the ICSID case starting in less than a month) and we are in the strongest position we have been in during all that time.

The US is not just desperate for critical minerals, it’s desperate for Manono, and the DRC is desperate to get US help. The DRC is so desperate, every day they are spinning shit about how they are transparent, cleaning up corruption and a great place to invest. We know they are liars and they are more desperate than us now even in spite of their delusion.

Nigel will do whatever ever he thinks is best, but I personally don’t want to have wasted the last three years defending the company against all the corrupt stooges and posting hundreds of pages and multiple threads of information and then not see it through one last month to the ICSID exposing all the lying, corrupt, embezzling arseholes.

IMG_6642.jpeg


P.S. I don’t believe all the recent bullshit and gag orders by the usual sources. If an offer is made and accepted before the ICSID many shareholders will be happy, but as @Samus has pointed out many times, we’ve heard the same bullshit for three years and I don’t believe a bar of it either
 
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wombat74

Top 20
@Goldenboy I cut and pasted your crapper post below 👇

Danny, did you give any thought to the chronology of current and future events in relation to your statement? Why would AVZ walk away and cancel the legal proceedings when the Court hearing is scheduled to kick off in under 4 weeks? AVZ would lose its strategic advantage if it withdrew the legal proceedings before the ICSID without any form of confirmed settlement to our claim.

What would be the catalyst for a buyout/payout to occur when the USA hasn’t signed an Agreement with the DRC and there is no commitment from either party to include AVZ’S CLAIM in the settlement terms. KoBold metals and RIO would not be interested until the USA Administration has a formal legal commitment.

AVZ Lawyers and the ICSID judicial party are about to issue subpoena's on the DRC to ensure they have adequate time to arrange flights to the hearing.

The ICSID Hearing may not be a critical timeline on the agenda of the USA but you can bet it’s a high priority for the DRC.

Why hasn’t the DRC been more proactive in looking for a settlement? The answer is simple, they just don’t understand the context of International Law and don’t get the actions they orchestrated against AVZ were in fact illegal.

I don’t think they even understand the complexity of the organisation that has to happen for delegates from the DRC, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin Mining group and the President of the DRC all having to attend the Court Hearing to take the stand and answer questions from AVZ Lawyers to give context to the depth of corruption and fraudulent actions that caused AVZ's Mining Licence to be cancelled. I can see them all lining up one by one and throwing each other under the bus if the Court hearing is to go ahead.

The DRC is about to learn in a big way what is going to happen one way or another and very soon. Any agreement the DRC signs with the USA (before June) will most certainly include, the settlement terms AVZ has submitted under its claim before the ICSID Hearing or should the ICSID Hearing go ahead as scheduled the payment terms from the verdict decided upon from the ICSID including the totality of fines and sanctions that are handed down (2-3 months post hearing).

IMO the USA has already stipulated to the DRC and Rwanda they need to sign a Peace Deal asap before the USA will sign off on any Minerals deal. The Declaration of Principles which they both signed was a significant step they both signed for peace and prosperity in their regions More recently both regions submitted their terms to the USA administration for the Peace deal suggesting these ISSUES are of extreme importance.

The compelling date for the DRC, more importantly, is very soon (before June), not in a couple of months, so this is becoming very urgent for them and they seem to be moving quickly, with very good reason.

In President Trumps's first 100 days he suspended the payment of $4M in international AID to the DRC and Rwanda and said he would review this over the next 3 months. Well that time is about now so the USA is also using this as leverage.

If the price being paid to AVZ is going to come from USA financial sources or investment companies there is every reason for the DRC to get a settlement done with AVZ asap. The total investment being discussed with the USA including the Lobito corridor and other Mining projects for copper, cobalt, uranium and many other critical minerals on the USA agenda put the payout to AVZ as being relatively small.

Nigel and Piper lawyers are in the USA so we know their presence in country has significance and meetings/ negotiations we can assume are happening to bring about an amicable resolution.

AVZ SHS would all be hoping a settlement announcement is made very soon or we continue with our Claim before the ICSID.

👆 Thanks for sharing that fantastic post @Goldenboy

I don’t read the crapper and haven’t for years. I want the case to go to the ICSID, I want all the corrupt arseholes to be exposed, held accountable and publicly shamed. We have fought off the corrupt actors involved for three years, finally something is imminent (the ICSID case starting in less than a month) and we are in the strongest position we have been in during all that time.

The US is not just desperate for critical minerals, it’s desperate for Manono, and the DRC is desperate to get US help. The DRC is so desperate, every day they are spinning shit about how they are transparent, cleaning up corruption and a great place to invest. We know they are liars and they are more desperate than us now even in spite of their delusion.

Nigel will do whatever ever he thinks is best, but I personally don’t want to have wasted the last three years defending the company against all the corrupt stooges and posting hundreds of pages and multiple threads of information and then not see it through one last month to the ICSID exposing all the lying, corrupt, embezzling arseholes.

View attachment 83986

P.S. I don’t believe all the recent bullshit and gag orders by the usual sources. If an offer is made and accepted before the ICSID many shareholders will be happy, but as @Samus has pointed out many times, we’ve heard the same bullshit for three years and I don’t believe a bar of it either
"AVZ Lawyers and the ICSID judicial party are about to issue subpoena's on the DRC to ensure they have adequate time to arrange flights to the hearing."
"I don’t think they even understand the complexity of the organisation that has to happen for delegates from the DRC, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin Mining group and the President of the DRC all having to attend the Court Hearing to take the stand and answer questions from AVZ Lawyers."
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I would say the chances of this happening are less than ZERO , Or , Not a snow flakes chance in hell . Take your pick . IMO
 
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Dave Evans

Regular
"AVZ Lawyers and the ICSID judicial party are about to issue subpoena's on the DRC to ensure they have adequate time to arrange flights to the hearing."
"I don’t think they even understand the complexity of the organisation that has to happen for delegates from the DRC, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin Mining group and the President of the DRC all having to attend the Court Hearing to take the stand and answer questions from AVZ Lawyers."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I would say the chances of this happening are less than ZERO , Or , Not a snow flakes chance in hell . Take your pick . IMO

People (including US investors) thought our chances of getting US$20million for litigation funding were “less than ZERO” too Wombat

I’ve given my opinion and I want to get to bed before midnight tonight so I’m signing off. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to gather enough pineapples to….

Well you know what to do with them, it was all your idea back in the day, remember 😉
 
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