AVZ Discussion 2022

[Azzler]

In the midst of banging my head repeatedly on the table this afternoon, one thought cut through the distraction....is it in the interest of the US/Kobold for positive reports of reconciliation/productive engagement between AVZ and DRC officials at this point in proceedings?

Optics are obviously important on any number of levels to the US in what they are trying to achieve here, as they want a significant win to parade on the world stage....even more so with events of recent weeks. They want to be seen as heroes.

If they can negotiate for a workable peace treaty in the longstanding conflict between two major African nations, bring multiple billions of needed Western investment, along with the subsequent improvements in living conditions to the long suffering populations, while also enormously benefiting the all important US economy and workforce with access to the plethora of vital 21st Century minerals the DRC is blessed with, AND combat China's attempts at a stranglehold on the sector in the process, then it's no small victory to the good ol boys.

Whilst there are potentially trillions of dollars of needed minerals in the ground in the DRC, there is only one proven up, homogenous, ready to go, lithium deposit of such size that it can dictate market dynamics for potentially decades to come, and you can be damn sure they won't want that to slip away as part of these negotiations. Kobold is a proxy for the US Department of State in this imo and as such will play hardball to get what they want as part of the overall peace/security and mineral deals.

They want the DRC to stop fucking us around so they can get their hands on our lithium rights, but the timing has had to be right for all these other important bricks to fall into place (how long have they been pulling the strings quietly in the background to get to this point is probably a valid thought) and it's important for them to appear to be the saviours in all this....to relieve the DRC of these pesky, honest, hardworking Aussies who will call a spade a fucking spade, and have become a real pain in the collective DRC arse, while giving us a shortcut to a fair and appropriate compensation for being ousted from the potential lithium resource of the century, rather than having to drag it through the international courts. If we suddenly smoothed things over with big Felix and his band of merry men before the ink has dried on the other agreements, as opposed to them patting us on the back and telling us they got this, once the treaties go through, then it may take some of their shine away.

All this while publically wearing their star spangled capes for the world to see. A true win-win-win if handled appropriately.....which is great, but if it's worth having then it's worth them paying appropriately for and we all know the starting figures for that portion of negotiations involve the ICSID claim amount.

Maybe I banged my head a few too many times...

Some thoughtful posts mate.

Just wondering if you post on HC or X under another name if you wish to share?

 

[Exo324]

If true I wonder how this affects the Rwanda / DRC treaty?

It mentions kagame is gravely ill

 

[TheV]

If DRC knowing that AVZ will be paid/bought out/compensated then what is the point of them engaging in negotiating with AVZ now? That's the mentality of third world's people in authority. Let's wait and see. Many here not long ago, wished to see us continuing with arbitration proceeding, didn't we?

 

[LOCKY82]

If true I wonder how this affects the Rwanda / DRC treaty?

It mentions kagame is gravely ill

Can't see a whif of it on any news sites...

 

[ptlas]

One thing I'm not understanding is the relationship between the details of this announcement and Felix' need to engage the US for protection and support against the rebels. He was evidently pleading to engage with the US for the purposes of signing the peace agreement which as we know has to have something in it for the US (i.e. the critical minerals aspect) - otherwise what is the point of the deal from the US perspective...

Once the deal is signed, I find it difficult to imagine that reneging or deviation from the US's strategy (which the DRC must have been agreed with to even make it to the point of signing) would be allowed to let slip by the US without consequence. There's still the chance that as mentioned above, the DRC are still engaging but with Kobold instead of AVZ.

On the other hand, the DRC government have proven themselves to be fools without logic or reason so maybe they plainly do not give a crap about US consequences.

Gotta disagree.

I don't think the DRC government are fools.
They have stayed true to their own totally corrupted selves and will continue to do so.
They are not interested in general DRC wellbeing. They are interested in themselves and to a much lesser extent the clans that give them strength.

Their MO is designed to keep them:
Out of prison
In power.
Continuing to collect large paper bags.

Nothing has changed, nor will it ever.

None of us are party to the goings on but the government has conceded nothing, is still in power and is still collecting all of the other paper bags from that huge country.
I'm quite sure that US military power, or lack thereof, means that they will eventually have to play ball, but remember all of the leverage, known and ' unknown ' that th CCP has to delay and obfuscate in an attempt to wear AVZ and the West down.
They will do what CCP tells them to do until it's no lnger tenable.

 

[OmarsCominYo]

Some thoughtful posts mate.

Just wondering if you post on HC or X under another name if you wish to share?

Cheers Azzler, I sometimes post as Klaxon on HC but I'm not a big contributor online and any thoughts are just personal ramblings (and have a case history of being very wrong, as my wallet can attest to!).

Very much appreciate all the more regular and far more considerable/informed contributors here over the years and there are still some diamonds amongst the dross on HC too. Was a reader on twitter before the switch to x but gave it away after it all went pear shaped for AVZ as, like others, the emotional toll was pretty high.

Hoping we all have reasons to breathe a collective sigh of relief at some point.

 

[Exo324]

Can't see a whif of it on any news sites...

Hopefully not true then - I’m sharing it from Facebook. Someone else posted earlier about not knowing his whereabouts for a while

 

[Carlos Danger]

Nothing can happen until the tenement (at least the south) is put back in our name as a PR. The DRC refusing to do this is the hold up. Because they actually believe their own crap that it is in Cominiere’s name uNdEr dRc LaW and that KoBold should be negotiating with them instead of AVZ.

If anyone is feeling down today I refer you to the ICC arbiters prima facie view on Cominiere’s claims of them owning the tenement where they stated ‘The Arbitral Tribunal is astonished by the fact that the High Court of Kalemie found that a contract had been terminated without the other parties to the contract being heard or summoned to express their position.’

As a golden rule arbiters should be independent. But this goes beyond a dispute in legal terms and the actions of Cominiere are an attack on the concept of adversarial fairness in law itself. They are going to be made an example of even by the arbiter that they chose imo

 

[LOCKY82]

When we were expecting the ML and the shit hit the fan, I told a south African friend of mine there's a hold up with an investment in africa, his response was "tell me it's not the drc is it? Because corruption is legal there" lesson learned.
I still think a deal with Kobold will go through, the u.s are flexing and want to stick it to China at any opportunity!

 

[BRICK]

If true I wonder how this affects the Rwanda / DRC treaty?

It mentions kagame is gravely ill

Season 6 plotline set up!

 

[Exo324]

Season 6 plotline set up!

I was thinking he’s prepping to chuck a sickie or playing dead to not go to the signing

Maybe china’s leaned on him hard on that stopover before Washington

 

[Mute22]

"THE largest American investor in the DRC.. hopefully soon"

"We're still finalising the agreement with the government and the commercial counter party"

"We'll move fast, once the ink dries on the contracts"

 

[cruiser51]

Tells it all.

Fuk Zijin.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

So when does the hearing start?

 

[Winenut]

So when does the hearing start?

what????...

 

[hedrox]

Le Président Félix Tshisekedi est arrivé à Luanda pour participer au sommet des affaires Usa- Afrique

Le Président de la République Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo est arrivé ce lundi matin à Luanda, en Angola, pour participer au 17ème Sommet des affaires États-Unis -Afrique ( 2025, US- Africa Business Summit).

presidence.cd

It looks like to me that Felix is going the US road...lets see

 

[Penskefile]

Yes, but DRC rarely play by the rules.

Yes they do - The Brown Paper Bag Rules

 

[Panther22]

Le Président Félix Tshisekedi est arrivé à Luanda pour participer au sommet des affaires Usa- Afrique

Le Président de la République Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo est arrivé ce lundi matin à Luanda, en Angola, pour participer au 17ème Sommet des affaires États-Unis -Afrique ( 2025, US- Africa Business Summit).

presidence.cd

View attachment 87557

It looks like to me that Felix is going the US road...lets see

How much is that plane worth? Just for future reference.

 

[cruiser51]

How much is that plane worth? Just for future reference.

Could be a rent-a-plane plane, Felix is more dodgy than his make believe chinese omeca wotches.

 

[Jongo]

I am in Bali atm and don't have the time to read the many posts from today, but from what I have read my thoughts are ...
1. USA is pushing on with facilitation of the DRC/Rwanda peace agreement.
2. Kobold will not deal with the corrupt Cominiere.
3. Kobold will deal with DRC government and AVZ directly.
4. AVZ/DRC should have deferred the ICSID proceedings for 1 month rather than 1 week.
5. Despite the DRC not playing the game wrt ICSID as per AVZ's announcement today, following the peace agreement on 27-Jun, the process will see results that favour AVZ ... albeit over several steps, and the DRC goverment will have to involve AVZ even though it is clear that they despise AVZ.
6. Several people have today been posting ridiculous inflamatory posts on TSE that are really uncalled for and these posts have been despite AVZ specifically requesting posters to not do this.