AVZ Discussion 2022

[JNRB]

IMO

The minerals for security deal will go ahead because if there's 1 thing a corrupt regime fears more than an empty paper bag its a violent uprising.

The M4S deal will not go ahead without a solution in sight for Manono:
1. Because USA knows they need the lithium
2. Because the USA can only get involved in DRC if its made clear that things are going to be above board. - By definition - this agreement cannot decide to just conveniently overlook a project theyre being iced out of due to corruption.

DRC will go down kicking and screaming but their options are:
1. Piss off the Americans for the sake of a few extra paper bags from China, get no value from Roche Dure or any downstream processing, and decided that the armed rebellion in the east isn't that big of a threat,
2. Kick-off a new development boom with USA that could dwarf China's paperbags, secure their positions against rebels, and (God forbid...) develop the Manono project into a project that can lift '000s of people out of poverty


There is a win-win deal for everyone (even zijin ) as long as people aren't to arrogant/dumb to take it

 

[Goat]

Been thinking again.

Now that ICSID has been resumed, it means that the financial claim stated by AVZ has to now be the benchmark.
If AVZ go the full course with a >US$10B claim and are successful, then Kobold will have to reimburse AVZ that amount in order to take over the project. OR, can AVZ go double bubble and hamstring DRC with a financial claim that entails ICSID enforcing the amount payable, acquire the funds then flog off the rights for another amount.
I'm not sure..

 

[Roger2018]

This is the song that never ends!

 

[RHyNO]

Been thinking again.

Now that ICSID has been resumed, it means that the financial claim stated by AVZ has to now be the benchmark.
If AVZ go the full course with a >US$10B claim and are successful, then Kobold will have to reimburse AVZ that amount in order to take over the project. OR, can AVZ go double bubble and hamstring DRC with a financial claim that entails ICSID enforcing the amount payable, acquire the funds then flog off the rights for another amount.
I'm not sure..

Don’t know that that would be the case. Kobold are not under any legal or other pressure to pay us for unrealised gains. Which is what the court is supposed to do. We are saying to court. We could have made A but corrupt actors ruined our opportunity to do so and are therefor in debt to us for A. But kobold are paying us for the right to realise the gains we cannot due to the corruption. So they need to make their nut it must be below the actual value. Otherwise why would they mine it?

 

[timb89]

Been thinking again.

Now that ICSID has been resumed, it means that the financial claim stated by AVZ has to now be the benchmark.
If AVZ go the full course with a >US$10B claim and are successful, then Kobold will have to reimburse AVZ that amount in order to take over the project. OR, can AVZ go double bubble and hamstring DRC with a financial claim that entails ICSID enforcing the amount payable, acquire the funds then flog off the rights for another amount.
I'm not sure..

No one HAS to buy AVZ. We are worth what buyers say we are worth. It's as simple as that.

If any company in the world has US$10 Billion to spend on Lithium they're buying PLS, twice.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Been thinking again.

Now that ICSID has been resumed, it means that the financial claim stated by AVZ has to now be the benchmark.
If AVZ go the full course with a >US$10B claim and are successful, then Kobold will have to reimburse AVZ that amount in order to take over the project. OR, can AVZ go double bubble and hamstring DRC with a financial claim that entails ICSID enforcing the amount payable, acquire the funds then flog off the rights for another amount.
I'm not sure..

Compensation claims through courts typically end up less than the initial claim

 

[Dazmac66]

No one HAS to buy AVZ. We are worth what buyers say we are worth. It's as simple as that.

If any company in the world has US$10 Billion to spend on Lithium they're buying PLS, twice.

Got ya knickers in a knot there Timbo! AVZ has the golden nugget and can also say no to any offers it considers low ball. Glass can be half full or half empty!

 

[timb89]

Got ya knickers in a knot there Timbo! AVZ has the golden nugget and can also say no to any offers it considers low ball. Glass can be half full or half empty!

This implies the glass is at 50% capacity. It isn't.

No amount of wishful thinking changes that. Apologies.

Again, if you had USD$10Bil would you buy 2xPLS or AVZ?

I'm not saying we are doomed, but anyone talking more than $A1.50 is retarded, has a tenuous grasp on reality or priming holders for disappointment.

 

[Hombre]

Gotta disagree.

I don't think the DRC government are fools.
They have stayed true to their own totally corrupted selves and will continue to do so.
They are not interested in general DRC wellbeing. They are interested in themselves and to a much lesser extent the clans that give them strength.

Their MO is designed to keep them:
Out of prison
In power.
Continuing to collect large paper bags.

Nothing has changed, nor will it ever.

None of us are party to the goings on but the government has conceded nothing, is still in power and is still collecting all of the other paper bags from that huge country.
I'm quite sure that US military power, or lack thereof, means that they will eventually have to play ball, but remember all of the leverage, known and ' unknown ' that th CCP has to delay and obfuscate in an attempt to wear AVZ and the West down.
They will do what CCP tells them to do until it's no lnger tenable.

While I don't know how significant the CCP's influence/role in resolving these matters is atm, I think we should not ignore or discount it - they are still live actors with an significant iron in the fire (for them). They still pull a lot of political strings in the DRC. Who knows, it could benefit their interests to play a clandestine subversive role by supporting Rwandan forces to distract American attention/forces from elsewhere - just don't make any assumptions or put anything past anybody. If Zinjin/CCP could be severely weakened would be a huge benefit in weakening the DRC hand -> hence the important role of the ICSID. But there's so much at stake for the CCP to just walk away from this game (including face) given their growing presence in Africa, it could be a key/strategic inflection point - so it could take some pretty hard knocking together of heads to get it sorted. Will the ICSID provide this - I don't know. It could require a coordinated strategic combination of timed hits against DRC/CCP players to get things moving. DRC/CCP players will exploit any & every weakness or chink they can find, including running down our finances etc

(I'm another long-time AVZ holder that's been watching quietly from the sidelines)

 

[Flight996]

While it's disappointing that the DRC govt failed to engage meaningfully with AVZ during the ICSID hiatus, it does not necessarily mean that AVZ is in a worse position than a month ago.

Surprisingly, AVZ has a get-out-of-jail-free card, which is dependent on the minerals-for-peace deal getting signed-off.

Although unlikely, but should the ICSID arbitration go all the way to the award phase, the peace deal brings into play avenues for AVZ to enforce both ICC and ICSID awards and penalty payments from the DRC.

As we are are all well aware, both the USA and DRC are signatories to the ICSID Convention established in 1966. AVZ can enforce awards and penalties through Article 54 of the Convention, which mandates member states to treat ICSID awards as binding and enforceable like domestic court judgments.

With this in mind, any payments and mining royalties made to the DRC will originate in the USA and be in $US (the currency of international trade). This means that AVZ can seek US court enforcement for the interception and seizure of these payments to satisfy the awards. This will deprive the DRC of any revenue and value from its copper and cobalt mines within the peace for minerals deal.

I sincerely hope that the DRC's many layers of legal eagles advise the govt to this risk, and that it would be wise to negotiate rather than obfuscate. The alternative for the DRC could rather bleak.

Cheers
F

 

[hedrox]

Lithium de Manono : AVZ relance l’offensive judiciaire, l’offre de KoBold fragilisée

La procédure d’arbitrage engagée par AVZ Minerals Limited contre la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) devant le Centre international pour le règlement des différends relatifs aux investissements (CIRDI), au sujet du gisement de lithium de Manono, « va maintenant reprendre », annonce la...

bankable.africa

 

[Winenut]

Lithium de Manono : AVZ relance l’offensive judiciaire, l’offre de KoBold fragilisée

La procédure d’arbitrage engagée par AVZ Minerals Limited contre la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) devant le Centre international pour le règlement des différends relatifs aux investissements (CIRDI), au sujet du gisement de lithium de Manono, « va maintenant reprendre », annonce la...

bankable.africa

View attachment 87584

Translation here peeps:

Manono's lithium: AVZ relaunches the judicial offensive, KoBold's offer weakened

Creation date: Tuesday, June 24, 2025 09:14

Date modified: June 24, 2025 15:52

The arbitration proceedings initiated by AVZ Minerals Limited against the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) before the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (CIRDI), regarding the Manono lithium deposit, "will now resume", the Australian company announced in a statement released on June 24, 2025.

By announcing, on May 26, the freezing of the procedure until June 23, AVZ had indicated that this decision aimed to create "a climate conducive to discussions" that could lead to an amicable settlement of the dispute. "Despite the efforts made by AVZ, the DRC has not engaged in dialogue during this period of temporary suspension, which has now expired," accuses the company.

For the moment, the Congolese authorities have not commented on the file. It is therefore unknown why the discussions were not successful, while the CIRDI had confirmed that the procedure had been suspended "in accordance with the agreement of the parties".

KoBold in trouble

One thing is certain: the resumption of legal proceedings weakens the offer of KoBold made to the Congolese authorities on January 21, 2025. The American company, supported by investors such as Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, proposes to end the dispute by granting "appropriate compensation" to AVZ, in exchange for abandoning its claims to Manono for its benefit. In this perspective, AVZ and KoBold announced on May 6 the conclusion of a framework agreement providing that "AVZ sells its commercial interests in the Manono lithium deposit to KoBold, at a fair value".

Except that for this operation to succeed, the Congolese State must agree to grant AVZ an exploitation permit or, failing that, recognise it rights to the deposit. What Kinshasa refuses, hence the procedure launched in June 2023 before CIRDI.

AVZ claims rights to the part of the Manono lithium deposit covered by the PR 13359 Exploration Permit. But the Congolese justice returned 100% of the stake in this license to the Congolese mining company (Cominière), when it was initially owned by a joint venture controlled by the Australian company, in partnership with the public company.

American Godfather

Subsequently, Cominière partnered with the Chinese group Zijin Mining to create Manono Lithium SAS. The joint venture, 61% owned by Zijin (through its subsidiary Jinxiang Lithium) and 39% by Cominière, has obtained an operating permit for the northeastern part of the deposit and plans to start lithium production in the first quarter of 2026.

AVZ is therefore also suing its former partner Cominière before the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce, where the Australian company has already obtained the conviction of the public company to pay 39.1 million euros in penalties for non-compliance with injunctions.

AVZ specifies that the suspension of the arbitration proceedings was decided "following a call from the United States government encouraging the parties to take measures to establish a climate conducive to discussions". These negotiations are part of a particular diplomatic context. Washington is parallelly conducting talks with Kinshasa for a strategic "minerals against security" agreement, which would aim to pacify the east of the country in exchange for preferential conditions for American investors in the mining sector, while facilitating a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. While the signing of these two agreements is announced for the end of the month, the DRC's posture in the AVZ–KoBold file intrigues.

Pierre Mukoko

Read also:

Manono's Lithium: AVZ freezes its dispute with the State to facilitate the offer of KoBold

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[Scoota30]

This implies the glass is at 50% capacity. It isn't.

No amount of wishful thinking changes that. Apologies.

Again, if you had USD$10Bil would you buy 2xPLS or AVZ?

I'm not saying we are doomed, but anyone talking more than $A1.50 is retarded, has a tenuous grasp on reality or priming holders for disappointment.

Anyone in the market to buy AVZ outside of China will do it on the condition that the ML is returned back to AVZ and then onsold. This (almost) makes the jurisdiction risk a non-issue as they will have the backing of the US government. Anyone talking below $1.50 has rocks in their head IMO, if any smart businessperson had the option to buy AVZ with US backing or 2x PLS they would buy the money printing machine every day. That's not even mentioning that PLS isn't in the market to sell and the US wants critical minerals NOW.

The 6.2b USD claim at ICSID equals 9.5b AUD, roughly ~$2.7 AUD per share (not including damages, just the asset price) and you think anyone that is talking over $1.50 is retarded? That's an 80% premium!

All court cases are clear cut so far and the arbitrators won't look to the DRC actions so far with a smile on their face. It isn't like we don't have that much of a leg to stand on.

I don't understand why everyone thinks we still don't hold the cards? Kobolds screaming from the rooftops that they want us to be paid fair value (not an 80% premium) for a deposit that's going to make them rich for multiple decades.