Fastback6666
Regular
I watched the ASX Investor interview (from 3 months ago) last night for the first time. After the last AGM I had just let BRN simmer for a while as could see it was a put it in the draw for a while longer while we wait for v2.0 .....though I am accumulating cheaper shares here also.What I also liked is that Sean is not shying away from the partnership with Mercedes and that is right up front still.
Also the representative of Mercedes commenting on Brainchip progress recently on Linked In gives me some decent hope of larger revenue in the not too distant future from Mercedes. We need this to avoid any cap raising at these levels.
From watching both recent interviews from Sean - here are my honest takeaways with my focus on revenue as that is what will sustain a healthy share price.
Larger revenues starting will not be in next 12 months but also wont be in 5 years. Large royalty revenue will be in between those timeframes. I assume once v2.0 Akida products are actually in products and selling - which he hints at 18 month to 2 year development cycle is typical.
My thoughts - If any other EAP's choose to break cover and announce the use of Akida in their product for release in the near future then of course we will have pops in the share price but they can come back down just like after MB news. If any of these news items from partners can be revenue quantifiable then the SP could have sustained rises - as the share market is always forward looking and forward pricing in. However it sounds like next 12 months will still be tough on the revenue as Sean is not giving a lot away on any v1.0 products being huge and sustaining. Maybe some licence sales but that won't be enough for a sustained SP.
I assume then the SP is going to move up and down in the next 1.5 years. From the 1.5 year point we may then start seeing bulk royalty revenue starting from products using v2.0 platform products.
It is interesting from the ASX Investor interview that Sean is adamant about pushing hard forward in sales but also development. It is great to keep that tech lead and is needed to stay very first mover - but Sales and Dev means continued bulk money to be spent in the next 1.5 years per quarter - I am keen to know his thoughts on how he is going to solve the funding over this period before bulk revenue potentially kicking in. I don't care too much for licences being sold as that is just a one of 1mil here and there, that is not going to sustain anything long term for the company. Quarter on Quarter sustained and balanced royalty revenue is needed to sustain a healthy share price, or at least sustained constant dollar attached deals announced.
Sean is obviously tactically still keeping his cards very close to his chest, a bit too much, but I get it, he does not want to over promise and be burnt on that. NDA's are still prominent in the landscape - bleeding edge tech does warrant the NDA's - annoying but true. We can't do much about it, I do like how the ASX Investor tried to extract the info out of him in many different ways around revenue and commerical players lol.
At this point you either believe in the Brainchip tech and partners involved to date and hope for the bulk revenue is there in 1.5 to 2 years. They may well get some starting IP revenue in the next 12 months but I assume it will be smallish - below 10mil for the year which really only sustains the current market cap. The bigger goals are 20mil+ for the year and growing that massively, that bulk is products from Akida v2.0 and beyond it seems. I was hoping on MB bulk royaly revenue starting in commerical vehicles this FY with their new models - but from Sean's language it does not seem to be the case - I could be wrong and Sean really under selling the revenue coming.
I am hoping on another larger player breaking cover again soonish though to say they are using Brainchips Akida platform v1 or v2 in a an actual commercial saleable product for the future. That would and can be valued somewhat by the financial analysts for the future revenue based on past products that company has sold. Lets see if it's possible.
The prospects for Brainchip are exciting - just a lot more patience required for the big sustained revenue.
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