AVZ Discussion 2022

Doc

Master of Quan
Kobold Metals plans to list on the NYSE
What value would that present with Mining from Manono at a scale of 10 MTPA.
Their return on investment T/O of AVZ would be Paid back very quickly.
IMO Bezos/ Gates do not having an issue with finding the funds for a fair valuation .
Maybe a royalty from Kobold Metals may be positive for shareholders but would rather be completely out of the DRC.
Bezos just sold 5B worth of stock didn’t he?
He cashed up to chip in for Manono
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
  • Love
Reactions: 12 users

ptlas

Regular
Let’s be clear — USD $6.2 billion isn’t some aspirational number. It’s AVZ’s formal ICSID claim, backed by DLA Piper — one of the world’s top legal firms — and reflects the fair market value of AVZ’s 75% stake in one of the largest undeveloped lithium projects on the planet. That’s the floor, not the ceiling.

KoBold’s $3B valuation is irrelevant. If they want Roche Dure, they’ll need to raise or borrow. The project’s value isn’t limited by what’s in KoBold’s bank account. And with US strategic backing and security guarantees now in place, the old sovereign risk discount no longer applies — if anything, DLA’s valuation is conservative.

Let’s not forget — shareholders have had their capital locked up and the company delisted, all under the premise of protecting shareholder value. We’ve been told time and time again that AVZ expects to win at ICSID and ICC. For management to now turn around and accept a lowball offer would be a complete betrayal of everything we’ve been led to believe.

It’s also clear that those pushing for a quick, cheap exit are mostly early holders. But many retail investors came in later, off the back of AVZ’s own guidance and public assurances. They stand to lose the most if this is wrapped up below fair value — and they won’t just cop it quietly.

There are also serious tax implications to consider. Depending on how any payout is structured — whether it’s a dividend, a buyback, or a liquidation — late-in investors could lose even more if it denies them access to the CGT discount. If the structure isn’t handled correctly, the ATO will take a much bigger bite — and that alone could trigger legal action.

A deal at $6B+ brings this to a clean close — and even at that level, KoBold is walking away with the deal of the century. With the scale of the resource and the long-term upside, they’ll still make more money than God.
Let's be clear, $6.2 billion is not what AVZ values Manono at.

Let's also be clear that in the absence of any official numbers, FROM AVZ ONLY, everything else is BS designed to lower the price.

If KoBold, or anybody else, are serious players at a fair price, then they need to name that fair price.
 
  • Like
  • Fire
Reactions: 20 users

Xerof

Flaming 1967
Bezos just sold 5B worth of stock didn’t he?
He cashed up to chip in for Manono
He filed with a 12 month window to get it done, but doesn’t mean he hasn’t done it already
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 4 users

ptlas

Regular
Bezos just sold 5B worth of stock didn’t he?
He cashed up to chip in for Manono
Chip in.
AKA paying his share, not the total price.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 7 users

LOCKY82

Regular
Bezos just sold 5B worth of stock didn’t he?
He cashed up to chip in for Manono



Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has disclosed a plan to sell up to 25 million shares of Amazon stock, potentially worth around $4.8 billion. This plan, revealed in a regulatory filing, is scheduled to conclude by May 29, 2026. The move comes at a time when Amazon is navigating global trade dynamics and tariff concerns. Bezos's decision to sell shares is structured under a pre-arranged trading plan to avoid insider trading accusations.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 7 users

Xerof

Flaming 1967
Bezos just sold 5B worth of stock didn’t he?
He cashed up to chip in for Manono
Gates is going to give away 140billion, where do we sign?
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 11 users

ptlas

Regular
i thought the 6.2bn was loss of value in terms of damages/loss progress/revenues etc. not the actual deposit?
That point has been made many times, by you, me and many others.
$6.2 bn is just part of Bezos pumping smoke out of his rs and mirrors.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 users

LOCKY82

Regular
I'm sure they will finance a lot of what's needed, these guys never dish out their own money directly if they don't have to
 
  • Like
Reactions: 7 users

PhatCatz

Regular
That point has been made many times, by you, me and many others.
$6.2 bn is just part of Bezos pumping smoke out of his rs and mirrors.
im not as active on these forums as others, but I just saw a few posts today/yesterday mentioning the Manono lithium and tin deposit valued at 6.2bn which wasn't my recollection! glad i wasn't misremembering things wrong! :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
That point has been made many times, by you, me and many others.
$6.2 bn is just part of Bezos pumping smoke out of his rs and mirrors.
im not as active on these forums as others, but I just saw a few posts today/yesterday mentioning the Manono lithium and tin deposit valued at 6.2bn which wasn't my recollection! glad i wasn't misremembering things wrong! :)
Completely wrong

The $6.2b USD is the amount named by AVZ in court documents for the destruction of value for its share of the Manono project

Has absolutely nothing to do with Bezos lmfao
 
  • Like
  • Fire
  • Haha
Reactions: 18 users

Winenut

GO AVZ!!!!
@Remark

The ongoing auto-deletion of my posts continues

Old mate is still at it

You can't see these anymore 👇👇👇 or click on the links although I can see them in my feed so from my end it sort of looks like things are okay......but they're not

There have been no notifications to me from admin that my posts have been moderated/deleted

Site is wildly compromised

DYOR


1748492787770.png
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

ptlas

Regular
Completely wrong

The $6.2b USD is the amount named by AVZ in court documents for the destruction of value for its share of the Manono project

Has absolutely nothing to do with Bezos lmfao
So the value of lithium, tin and tantalum was $6.2bn and is now reduced to zero???
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 2 users

Winenut

GO AVZ!!!!
and.....

it's gone

1748493798367.png
 

Flight996

Regular
I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,
  • Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
  • Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
  • Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%
KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.
 
  • Like
  • Thinking
Reactions: 11 users

Winenut

GO AVZ!!!!
They're seriously hot on you.....

I think you may hold the record for milliseconds to removal

Arsewipes......

1748494008732.png
 

Spikerama

Regular
I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,
  • Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
  • Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
  • Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%
KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.

Personally I like the old LITTFP principle.

Leave It To The Fucking Professionals!

Anything else is just conjecture and noise.

"Stop telling them the price Son"
 
  • Like
  • Fire
  • Haha
Reactions: 22 users

KentCStrait

Regular
I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,
  • Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
  • Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
  • Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%
KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.
Good post, but let’s step back and look at the bigger picture.

The 669Mt at Roche Dure is just the current JORC figure. It doesn’t reflect the full scale of the Manono asset. Roche Dure remains open along strike and at depth, and AVZ’s original exploration target was closer to 1.2Bt — just for RD and its immediate surrounds.

Now factor in the Kitotolo Sector to the southwest — historically mined for tin but largely unexplored for lithium. Early assessments point to multiple large pegmatites, potentially adding another 300–500Mt. Then there are the NE and SW extensions (PRs 4029 & 4030), which are highly prospective and likely host to additional strike extensions of the known mineralisation.

Altogether, a 2Bt total resource base is a conservative estimate for what KoBold — or any buyer — would be acquiring.

So while AVZ’s $6.2B ICSID claim reflects the damage caused by the unlawful expropriation, it also stands as a realistic floor for valuing one of the largest, highest-grade hard rock lithium deposits on the planet. And with US-backed security guarantees in place, the sovereign risk discount has effectively been wiped off the table.

If KoBold wants to mine this at 10MTPA and list on the NYSE, it needs to pay a fair price — not toss in crumbs and expect no resistance. This asset demands it. And anything less than a $6B+ resolution invites prolonged litigation and reputational fallout.

At $6B, we walk away satisfied — and KoBold still walks away with a money-printing asset that’ll make more profit than God.
 
  • Like
  • Fire
  • Love
Reactions: 24 users

Flight996

Regular
Personally I like the old LITTFP principle.

Leave It To The Fucking Professionals!

Anything else is just conjecture and noise.

"Stop telling them the price Son"

Mate, I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know, and even if I did they would not be guided by my rudimentary calculations that may end up being way off the mark anyway. They have bigger calculators with bigger mantissas than both of us.

Cheers
F
 
  • Like
  • Fire
Reactions: 9 users

timb89

Regular
I like the KISS principle.

AVZ's JORC compliant lithium reserves at Manono are,
  • Total = 842Mt @ 1.61%
  • Roche Dure (RD) = 669 Mt @ 1.61%
  • Carriere de l'Este (CDL) = 173 Mt @ 1.58%
KoBold acknowledges the need for fair compensation for AVZ's Roche Dure (RD) and Carriere De l'este (CDL) investments at Manono. Kobold says RD is worth $US3.0 billion, and presumably the DRC govt is on the hook for compensating AVZ for CDL.

CDL represents 20% of Manono's JORC reserves (ignoring the differences in grade and impurities), which adds another $US600 million to the mix.

Therefore the starting point for negotiating AVZ's Manono stake is KoBold's low-ball $US3.0 billion plus the DRC's $US600 million = $US3.6 billion. This is a long way from AVZ's ICSID claim for $US6.2 billion for the corrupt destruction of its Manono investments by the DRC government and its agencies.

The mid-point of the two figures is $US4.9 billion.

Over to you KoBold and DRC...

Cheers
F

PS. I am unaware if AVZ's other tenements and projects alongside Manono are also being negotiated, or what, if any value AVZ has placed on them.

Thankyou for writing $US (or $AUD). This should be the standard on all price discussions.
 
  • Like
  • Fire
Reactions: 7 users

Penskefile

Regular
Gates is going to give away 140billion, where do we sign?

somewhere familiar I suppose?
 

Attachments

  • F3F252C0-789A-4129-B918-8896B7F958BC.jpeg
    F3F252C0-789A-4129-B918-8896B7F958BC.jpeg
    1.6 MB · Views: 52
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 3 users
Top Bottom