KentCStrait
Regular
Good post, but let’s step back and look at the bigger picture.
The 669Mt at Roche Dure is just the current JORC figure. It doesn’t reflect the full scale of the Manono asset. Roche Dure remains open along strike and at depth, and AVZ’s original exploration target was closer to 1.2Bt — just for RD and its immediate surrounds.
Now factor in the Kitotolo Sector to the southwest — historically mined for tin but largely unexplored for lithium. Early assessments point to multiple large pegmatites, potentially adding another 300–500Mt. Then there are the NE and SW extensions (PRs 4029 & 4030), which are highly prospective and likely host to additional strike extensions of the known mineralisation.
Altogether, a 2Bt total resource base is a conservative estimate for what KoBold — or any buyer — would be acquiring.
So while AVZ’s $6.2B ICSID claim reflects the damage caused by the unlawful expropriation, it also stands as a realistic floor for valuing one of the largest, highest-grade hard rock lithium deposits on the planet. And with US-backed security guarantees in place, the sovereign risk discount has effectively been wiped off the table.
If KoBold wants to mine this at 10MTPA and list on the NYSE, it needs to pay a fair price — not toss in crumbs and expect no resistance. This asset demands it. And anything less than a $6B+ resolution invites prolonged litigation and reputational fallout.
At $6B, we walk away satisfied — and KoBold still walks away with a money-printing asset that’ll make more profit than God.
