AVZ Discussion 2022

Skar

Regular
This was off course based on 4.5 mt operation over 20 years but board was working on 10 mt revised DFS based on substantial Jorc upgrade
As far as Arcadium Lithium strongly disagree.
4.5 mt/y and we have over 842 mt?

Is it possible to subdivide the tenement and sell it off piece by piece or does it have to go to one buyer? Just seems crazy to be restrained to a 20 year LOM, when it could be scaled up to 40mt with a 20 year LOM... not counting any further drilling or expansion work.
 
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wombat74

Top 20
Yeah Wino i totally agree. Avenger has just put together a nice little thesis in response to JonoNZ post. He has obviously read " The Power Of Positive Thinking " recently and more power to him.
Re his post
1) Forecast $4.08 just his positive stab at it
2) Agree...i think deal is done and is for the Manonon asset not AVZI or GLH shares
3) Agree...no JV just a straight buy out
3a) Agree its a done deal but not until Friday
3b) Agree but not until the money is in our bank
3c) I do agree Zijin should definately have to be part of the compensation payout but no evidence of that yet
3d) Agree ...Kobold will get the southern section only. Where is the boundary...we dont care !

Re $4.08 valuation being based on NPV of DFS completely disagree. NPV shown as US $ 1028 and with 3.52 billion shares we get Aud $ 0.45 c
This was off course based on 4.5 mt operation over 20 years but board was working on 10 mt revised DFS based on substantial Jorc upgrade
As far as Arcadium Lithium strongly disagree. Arcadium had operating mines in Argentina and Australia ( currently still on care and maintenance i think) plus downstream processing assets in US China Japan and UK as well as other green and brown field exploration projects. Bit like comparing the price of a rump steak to an apple.
No problem with Avenger having a stab at it but if we got $4.08 i think i would have a heart attack.
3a) "Agree its a done deal but not until Friday."

That's very specific mate . You got a twitchy knee ? I'm suspecting there could be some extra hang time with this suspension . A limbo time before the hammer down so no extension is needed . imo
 
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j.l

Regular
I will do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge if we get $4+ & nobody needs to see that
Stop talking the price down!! 😂
 
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BRICK

Where’s Zeebot 😶‍🌫️
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LzrTr8dr

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I will do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge if we get $4+ & nobody needs to see that
Maybe that'll be the pivotal swing for Kobold & negotiations
 
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Strongman

Regular
3a) "Agree its a done deal but not until Friday."

That's very specific mate . You got a twitchy knee ? I'm suspecting there could be some extra hang time with this suspension . A limbo time before the hammer down so no extension is needed . imo
Yeah mate definitely the twitchy knee and i borrowed Avengers copy of "The Power Of Positive Thinking"
 
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Winenut

GO AVZ!!!!
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Strongman

Regular
Just on 9 am in Paris but no change on ICSID website
 
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BRICK

Where’s Zeebot 😶‍🌫️
To watch or participate??....

and can you warn us in advance if you look like Gina
participate of course nut!


I look more like this than gina:


900c6dc5150d520e5a24fb937fe25520.jpg
 
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Dazmac66

Regular
Who is Avenger and what is their track record on predictions? Why and how do they speak with such confidence?
Fucked if I know who avenger is!! Just posted the points to promote discussion. Appears to have worked!🤘
 
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Samus

Top 20
The following posted by Avenger on the crapper. Interested in opinions from the learned TSE crew. Point 2 raised concerns re cap gains on selling the asset!!

The above is all good reading and the following key takeouts-
1. The buyout range of $1.50 to $3.00 usd with within the forecasted $4.08aud I've previously supplied.
2. They're won't be a relisting here as KoBold offer to buyout is already accepted and simply awaiting final terms. To further clarify, the buyout transaction relates to the sale of DRC Manono Asset sale and not the sale or absorption of AVZ minerals into KoBold.
3. There won't be any JV here either and the AVZ -KoBold framework as the word framework suggests is predicated on a number of outcomes
a. DRC-USA securities agreement - done deal
b. Arbitration suspension between AVZ - DRC - done deal
c. The compensation payout to AVZ minerals for the Northern.portion which will be reliquished to Zinjin - done deal.
d. The agreement between AVZ - KoBold confirming the southern section will be owned by KoBold.
The asset buyout is imminent and IMO $4.08AUD will be close enough to the number based on DFS NPV/IRR and also on a comparative basis to other recently completed Lithium deal particularly the RIO Tinto $6.7b usd takeover
1000013224.jpg
 
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Mute22

Regular
Without any new information, assume the ICSID case is proceeding today?

Super strange no announcement to the contrary, even to delay a few more days.

Thinking Nigel wants to do an all-in-one and final announcement and be done with it.

Hoping it... is.... imminent.
 
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LEFOOL

Regular
Mr Bean Waiting GIF by MOODMAN


Mr Bean is all of us right now tbh..
 
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Samus

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wombat74

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BRICK

Where’s Zeebot 😶‍🌫️
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Retrobyte

Hates a beer
That's one of Shane's archive posts that he's rehashing from a couple of years ago. He's such a good librarian
 
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marksmann007

Regular
Below posted by Kiki on X
Expects to hear further updates after the 27th

June 23, 2025 is the deadline for the suspension of ICSID arbitration.
In brief, the international arbitration dispute and Agreement $AVZ – @KoBold_Metals on the Manono lithium project between AVZ, #COMINIERE and ZIJIN.
1. Legal victories in March 2025.
On March 10, 2025, the Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ruled in favor of @AvzMinerals .
It upheld previous injunctions, ordering the Congolese state-owned company COMINIERE to pay 39.1 million € for failing to comply with these injunctions, in particular by dividing and transferring the permit to Manono Lithium SAS (joint venture #Zijin –COMINIERE).
AVZ is now exploring ways to recover this amount.
2. Suspension of arbitration for a negotiated outcome
On May 26, 2025, as part of a framework agreement sealed with KoBold Metals (backed by Bill Gates & Jeff Bezos), AVZ decided to temporarily suspend its ICSID proceedings against the DRC, in the hope of an amicable settlement.
This suspension is effective until June 23, 2025.
3. Geopolitical dimension and American stakes
The Manono case has acquired a strong strategic dimension: Washington wishes to limit Chinese influence in the critical minerals sector, and supports the AVZ–KoBold agreement to secure the southern part (Roche Dure) of the deposit through a takeover by an American entity.
AVZ also won a partial ICSID ruling against the Congolese state to obtain the license's return, and plans to suspend these actions if a solid agreement is reached.
4. Upcoming deadlines
June 23, 2025: Deadline for suspension of ICSID arbitration – watch closely to see if an amicable resolution is reached.
The framework agreement with KoBold, if finalized, would include: financial compensation to AVZ, acquisition of AVZ shares by KoBold, and obtaining a permit for the southern area of the deposit.
In summary
AVZ won its legal case (39.1 M € penalty payment).
The case is now moving towards an amicable settlement through the AVZ–KoBold partnership, facilitated by the United States.
The future will clearly depend on the outcome of the framework agreement by the end of June 2025, and on Kinshasa's acceptance of a coordinated deal.
AVZ – KoBold Metals agreement (May 2025)
Elements Details Actors AVZ Minerals (Australia) and KoBold Metals (USA, supported by Gates, Bezos, B. Gates Foundation, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, etc.)
Purpose Partial or total acquisition of AVZ's interests in the Manono lithium project, in particular the southern part known as "Roche Dure" Purpose To remove AVZ from the dispute with the DRC, secure a solid technological and financial partner, advance the exploitation of the deposit Terms Payment to AVZ, resumption of its rights via KoBold, negotiation with Kinshasa for the granting of a new independent mining permit for the southern part Key condition Suspension of the ICSID arbitration until June 23, 2025 to give a chance to a political and administrative resolution with the Congolese government
Stakes: AVZ cedes control but remains involved as an intermediary. KoBold offers the geopolitical and financial guarantees that Kinshasa seeks in the face of the Chinese option (Zijin).
US Strategy in Critical Minerals
Main objectives:
Reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, particularly for lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper.
Secure strategic reserves through partnerships with resource-rich countries (such as the DRC, Chile, Australia, etc.).
Supporting American tech champions like KoBold Metals, which combine AI, mining exploration and long-term capital.
Instruments used:
KoBold Metals acts as an "offensive player" supported by US tech giants and investment funds.
The U.S. government is providing discreet diplomatic support to KoBold in negotiations with Congolese authorities.
Support through green financing mechanisms and energy transition initiatives (USAID, DFC, etc.).
In Manono's case:
The northern part of the deposit is under the control of Zijin Mining (China), via Manono Lithium SAS.
The southern part, more promising in terms of volume and quality, could be granted to KoBold if the agreement goes through.
The United States hopes to break the Chinese monopoly on this emblematic project.
Manono thus becomes a major geopolitical symbol: AVZ gives in to powers, and the two superpowers (USA vs China) confront each other through proxy companies on the same African mining site.
Kiki #Kienge
@MinMinesRDC @kizpaka @Presidence_RDC @realDonaldTrump @US_SrAdvisorAF @USAmbDRC
 
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