AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
RHyNO
Regular
Agree mate, just curious perhaps you or someone else here might know this. To get the CGT discount, does the company have to relist? Or does Nigel have to shut AVZ down and return capital as you say? What are your and others thoughts on this process?
Geez I hope it’s legit. Just sent them 50k, they promised I’d double my money in a week!
KentCStrait
Regular
With the mining licence in place and sovereign risk neutralised by US backing, the floor valuation for Roche Dure is USD $6–8 billion, based on recent comparable transactions.
At that level, AVZ shareholders walk away satisfied, and the buyer — whether it’s Kobold or someone else — secures an asset that will generate extraordinary long-term returns.
If there’s competitive tension or multiple bidders, valuations could easily push toward USD $10–12 billion. This isn’t wishful thinking — the resource scale, global lithium demand, and geopolitical backing are all undeniable.
Frankly, anyone floating numbers below $6B either hasn’t done the work or is pushing an agenda. And if shareholders are forced into accepting a lowball outcome after years of obstruction and delay, a class action is inevitable — and no one sees a cent until that’s resolved.
It’s also critical that any distribution of proceeds to shareholders is executed via a share buyback or liquidation, not as a dividend or income-style return. If AVZ structures it in a way that denies shareholders access to the 50% CGT discount, it will absolutely trigger further legal action.
As for Jens now appearing to talk down the value of the project — I genuinely don’t understand his shift in position. He previously talked it up, so the change is confusing. It seems likely he was receiving information from someone on the ground in the DRC, and that pipeline may have dried up.
That said, if shareholders are materially harmed and it’s shown that public commentary influenced sentiment or misled investors, he could face legal consequences as well. No one is immune from scrutiny if this goes south.
At that level, AVZ shareholders walk away satisfied, and the buyer — whether it’s Kobold or someone else — secures an asset that will generate extraordinary long-term returns.
If there’s competitive tension or multiple bidders, valuations could easily push toward USD $10–12 billion. This isn’t wishful thinking — the resource scale, global lithium demand, and geopolitical backing are all undeniable.
Frankly, anyone floating numbers below $6B either hasn’t done the work or is pushing an agenda. And if shareholders are forced into accepting a lowball outcome after years of obstruction and delay, a class action is inevitable — and no one sees a cent until that’s resolved.
It’s also critical that any distribution of proceeds to shareholders is executed via a share buyback or liquidation, not as a dividend or income-style return. If AVZ structures it in a way that denies shareholders access to the 50% CGT discount, it will absolutely trigger further legal action.
As for Jens now appearing to talk down the value of the project — I genuinely don’t understand his shift in position. He previously talked it up, so the change is confusing. It seems likely he was receiving information from someone on the ground in the DRC, and that pipeline may have dried up.
That said, if shareholders are materially harmed and it’s shown that public commentary influenced sentiment or misled investors, he could face legal consequences as well. No one is immune from scrutiny if this goes south.
Underwaterdark
Regular
Maybe they will organise some sort of Share Buy Back program, instead of a special dividend, so cgt still comes in to play.
BRICK
Zeebot Located
I fucken knew this biatch was a bot
Scapegoats and stolen millions: What the Mutamba case reveals about Tshisekedi’s regime
Congolese ruler Tshisekedi and his allies have made a habit of blaming Rwanda for nearly every crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But while they cry foul across the border, they loot their…
ellenkampire.com
BRICK
Zeebot Located
A bit of light reading . Surprise surprise the new Justice Minister is as rotten to the core as the rest of them .
ellenkampire.com
Scapegoats and stolen millions: What the Mutamba case reveals about Tshisekedi’s regime
Congolese ruler Tshisekedi and his allies have made a habit of blaming Rwanda for nearly every crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But while they cry foul across the border, they loot their…
ellenkampire.com
Xerof
Flushed the Toilet
Our new entrant Anthony
My first post was moderated by the three stooges, as was your reply
Cumquat Cap
Regular
Fanciful to say the least, what if the offer is no where near that are we supposed to continue legal action against a bankrupt company for the foreseeable future?
Hoping for the most possible but competitive pressure is paramount, try and be realistic ffs
Xerof
Flushed the Toilet
I wasn’t speaking about you dear, and no, I’m not interested
Re: Roche Dure was measured at approx. 317Mt tonnes of spodumene ore at 1.63% converting to about 12.9Mt LCE
You may need a bigger boat because:
In January 2024, Roche Dure Measured, Indicated, and Inferred Mineral Resource increased to 669 million tonnes (Mt) grading 1.61% Li2O, 690ppm Sn, and 33ppm Ta, containing 10.79 Mt of lithium oxide. Measured + Indicated = 500Mt, and Inferred = 169Mt.
Your recalculations will be interesting.
Cheers
F
KentCStrait
Regular
Fanciful? What’s fanciful is pretending a Tier-1 lithium asset with a granted mining licence, US backing, and global strategic relevance is worth anything less than $6–8B. That’s not hopium — that’s what the numbers say when you compare it to other deals, and Roche Dure leaves those in the dust in both scale and grade.
If an offer comes in well below that, then yes — shareholders have every right to pursue legal action. And it won’t be against a “bankrupt company” — it’ll be against directors, advisors, and anyone else who facilitated a sale that doesn’t reflect market value. Precedent exists for that.
No one’s saying we hold out for the moon — but lowballing this now under the guise of “realism” isn’t smart, it’s submission. Competitive pressure is exactly what gets us a real price. Settling for crumbs before that pressure plays out is how value gets stolen.
Cumquat Cap
Regular
I meant continuing legal action against a corrupt country in the DRC. Not sure continuing this will give us another chance.
Would never mention numbers but I know several larger holders (of which dominate the register) who would happily sell below this. I am no where near that and would be disappointed bur with several hundred grand in my bank account after this shit show, zero chance I’m holding settlement up for the chance to get back in the ring with the corrupt fuckwit DRC government.
Food for thought at least, suspect we will get less than that rough valuation but still enough to rotate into new an exciting investment opportunities.
Hopefully find out in the next week or two fingers crossed
Would never mention numbers but I know several larger holders (of which dominate the register) who would happily sell below this. I am no where near that and would be disappointed bur with several hundred grand in my bank account after this shit show, zero chance I’m holding settlement up for the chance to get back in the ring with the corrupt fuckwit DRC government.
Food for thought at least, suspect we will get less than that rough valuation but still enough to rotate into new an exciting investment opportunities.
Hopefully find out in the next week or two fingers crossed
US$6 billion, or less than A$3 ps IS lowballing
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
To get the CGT discount something will have to occur that triggers a CGT event in relation to our AVZ shares
There may be a number of ways the Nige can structure a transaction for this to occur
There's some reading here about the triggers for CGT events in relation to shares
https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-...estments/when-cgt-applies-to-shares-and-units
In relation to the question as to whether AVZ would need to relist for you to ultimately have access to the CGT discount I would suggest the answer is "no"
CGT events can definitely occur in relation to shares and units that are not listed on the stock exchange
Hope that helps mate
Note: Happy for corrections etc if I have got any of this out of whack
A bit of light reading . Surprise surprise the new Justice Minister is as rotten to the core as the rest of them .
Scapegoats and stolen millions: What the Mutamba case reveals about Tshisekedi’s regime
Congolese ruler Tshisekedi and his allies have made a habit of blaming Rwanda for nearly every crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But while they cry foul across the border, they loot their…
They can't help themselves, it's in their DNA. All of them.
Mute22
Regular
There seem to be two distinct camps of holders in the current discussion:
1) Long-term holders – Often early entrants who now hold millions of shares. Many in this group are seeking a quick resolution, driven largely by lifestyle considerations.
2) High-risk newer investors – typically holding anywhere from tens of thousands to several hundred thousand shares. They’re more focused on achieving what they believe is fair value for their investment, even if it requires more patience.
The first group is increasingly pushing to lower expectations, suggesting we should accept whatever offer is on the table because “this is our only exit.” The second group sees this as premature, arguing that setting a low bar now is like entering a bidding war against ourselves before the race has even started.
Reading between the lines on our most recent announcement, removal of Kobolds interview etc. despite what the US media might say, AVZ is making it clear that this deal might be done in Kobold's mind, but nothing is set in stone yet, leaving us open to other bidders.
At the end of the day, neither group is likely to influence the final outcome. So, perhaps the best course of action is to relax and let the process be negotiated by the guy with a private island and jet plane on the line.
1) Long-term holders – Often early entrants who now hold millions of shares. Many in this group are seeking a quick resolution, driven largely by lifestyle considerations.
2) High-risk newer investors – typically holding anywhere from tens of thousands to several hundred thousand shares. They’re more focused on achieving what they believe is fair value for their investment, even if it requires more patience.
The first group is increasingly pushing to lower expectations, suggesting we should accept whatever offer is on the table because “this is our only exit.” The second group sees this as premature, arguing that setting a low bar now is like entering a bidding war against ourselves before the race has even started.
Reading between the lines on our most recent announcement, removal of Kobolds interview etc. despite what the US media might say, AVZ is making it clear that this deal might be done in Kobold's mind, but nothing is set in stone yet, leaving us open to other bidders.
At the end of the day, neither group is likely to influence the final outcome. So, perhaps the best course of action is to relax and let the process be negotiated by the guy with a private island and jet plane on the line.
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